Friday, April 12, 2013

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose for a fourth straight day on Thursday, sending the Dow and the S&P 500 to new closing highs as positive data on the labor market and an encouraging retail outlook eased recent concerns about economic growth.

Despite the S&P 500's gain of 11.7 percent this year, investors have fretted about the pace of recovery, especially after last week's dramatically weak March payrolls report.

Jobless claims fell far more than expected in the latest week, dropping to the lower end of the range for the year. In another sign that the economy might be in better shape than some recent data had indicated, retail executives and analysts forecast improved same-store sales in April after mixed results in March.

"This data is especially welcome on the heels of last week's jobs report, and it just adds to the tremendous demand that there continues to be for equities," said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management in New York. "The money that has been waiting for a pullback is running out of patience."

Still, the Nasdaq's gains were limited as technology stocks sold off on an industry report showing shipments of personal computers had fallen significantly in the first quarter. The S&P information technology sector index slipped 0.5 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 62.90 points, or 0.42 percent, to close at 14,865.14. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index  rose 5.64 points, or 0.36 percent, to 1,593.37. The Nasdaq Composite Index  edged up 2.90 points, or 0.09 percent, to close at 3,300.16.

All three indexes finished higher for the fourth straight day. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 reached new all-time intraday highs in midday trading before ending at new closing highs. The Dow climbed to an intraday record peak at 14,887.51, while the S&P 500 set a record session high at 1,597.35.

"It's amazing to me that we're already a few points away from our mid-year target of 1,600, which had seemed somewhat aggressive," said Grohowski, who oversees about $179 billion in client assets. "But there's still skepticism about the market and tons of cash on the sidelines, which encourages me that the market can continue to pull higher."


Oils - NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its forecast for oil demand growth this year, the third of the world's top forecasters to do so at a time of growing supplies.

The IEA cut its forecast of growth in global oil demand for the third straight month. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also revised their forecasts lower this week.

Sputtering economic growth in the United States and several major developing economies and a recession in parts of Europe have eroded demand for fuel at a time when oil production has been increasing rapidly, particularly in North America.

"There's an ongoing process of acknowledging that the underlying fundamentals are not supporting prices," said Timothy Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspectives in New York.

"I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that any time a market has a 22-year high in inventories, it's not a bull market," Evans said.

Brent prices declined more sharply than U.S. crude, narrowing the spread between Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate to a nine-month low of $10.59 at one point on Thursday, before settling at $10.76.

Brent May crude settled $1.52 lower at $104.27 a barrel, after touching a session low of $103.70. Brent's May contract expires on Monday.

U.S. May crude settled off $1.13 at $93.51 a barrel, well below its 50-day moving average of $94.33. It dropped as low as $93.06 during the session.


CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended mixed on Thursday with nearby contracts gaining sharply against deferred months due to tight supplies of old-crop U.S. soybeans, traders said.

·         Trade continues to digest USDA's April 10 supply/demand  report showing smaller-than-expected U.S. 2012/13 soybean ending  stocks at 125 million bushels, a nine-year low.
 
·         New-crop November soybeans pressured by concerns   that a slow start to U.S. planting may shift some corn acres    over to soybeans. Also bearish, a large South American harvest may stretch South American soy export window into the U.S.   autumn harvest period.
 
·         The inverted CBOT May/July soybean spread hit an intraday high of 35 cents, premium May, its highest level in seven months. The July/November spread peaked at   $1.46, premium July, its highest since USDA's March 28 quarterly stocks report.   
 
·         Wet, chilly weather is expected to continue in the U.S.    northern Plains and Midwest over the next 10 days to two weeks,   stalling spring fieldwork - meteorologist. 
 
·         USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest   week at 319,200 tonnes for 2012/13, within a range of estimates,   and 64,500 for 2013/14, below estimates.
 
·         USDA put weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 227,100  tonnes for 2012/13 and 7,500 for 2013/14, above trade   expectations.
 
·         USDA put weekly export sales of U.S. soyoil at 7,700   tonnes, all for 2012/13, within trade expectations 
 
·         Trade awaiting monthly U.S. soy crush data due on Monday   from the National Oilseed Processors Association.
 
·         Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest level in   more than a week, tracking soy markets, after a key U.S.  industry report showed higher-than-expected world soybean stockpiles. 


BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, April 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell to the lowest in more than a week on Thursday, tracking weaker soy markets after a key U.S. industry report showed higher-than-expected global soybean stockpiles.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) pegged quarterly global soybean stocks above trade estimates, putting soybeans and soybean oil under pressure. Palm oil tends to track soybean oil closely as they are substitutes for each other.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.7 percent to close at 2,355 ringgit ($776) per tonne. Prices dropped to a low at 2,340 ringgit earlier in the session, a level last seen on April 1.

Total traded volumes stood at 32,041 lots of 25 tonnes each, lower than the average 35,000 lots seen so far this year.

Traders, however, expect palm oil to draw support from robust export demand and lower-than-expected inventory levels.

"On the local bourse, we are witnessing some technical inspired selling. But with lower end-stocks and better exports, we believe the market's well supported," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Wednesday reported an inventory level for March at 2.17 million tonnes, below a Reuters poll's consensus of 2.35 million tonnes, as exports rose as much as 10 percent on a monthly basis.

"We believe this should have been due to the higher than expected demand recovery in China as the temperature turned warmer in March," said Alan Lim Seong Chun, research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, in a note to clients on Thursday.

Cargo surveyor data showed exports also edged higher for the first 10 days of April from a month ago, raising hopes that stocks could ease further and dip below 2 million tonnes by the end of this month.

"Looking ahead, we believe that the stock level could fall ... to 1.98 million tonnes by end of April," Lim said.
In other markets, Brent crude oil slipped towards $105 per barrel after U.S. crude oil stocks hit their highest level in more than two decades and analysts cut forecasts for global oil demand growth.

The slightly bearish USDA data dragged other vegetable oil markets lower as well. U.S. soyoil for May delivery  fell 0.6 percent in late Asian trade. The most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange closed 1.4 percent lower.