Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Bloomberg - WTI Rises to One-Month High on Flexibility Over Cyprus


West Texas Intermediate crude advanced to the highest level in almost a month after European policy makers signaled flexibility on the application of an unprecedented bank tax in Cyprus.


Futures rose for a third day as European officials said Cyprus could ease the cost of the bank-savings levy to small depositors. Outrage over the tax threatened to derail a bailout and worsen Europe’s debt crisis. It sent crude down 1.8 percent in intraday trading before the rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed a 100-point loss and the euro reduced a decline against the dollar. Oil also gained after failing to sustain a move below its 100- and 200-day moving averages.



“It’s not the end of the world for Europe,” said Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors. “People are waiting to see how it plays out. The equity market has come back pretty strong and the dollar is off its highs.”




Read all : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/wti-drops-from-three-week-high-on-cyprus-crisis.html

RTRS - Frost hits Argentine soy fields, some yield loss expected


BUENOS AIRES, March 18 (Reuters) - A sudden blast of Arctic air shocked late-planted soy fields in parts of Argentina's main grains province Buenos Aires over the weekend, putting pressure on harvest expectations in one of the world's top exporters of beans and soy byproducts.

The government expects a harvest of 51 million to 52 million tonnes of soybeans while consumer nations - in need of food supplies after disappointing grains crops in the United States, Russia and Australia - are counting on South American breadbaskets Brazil and Argentina to provide ample harvests.

Temperatures of 0 to 2 degrees Celsius (32-36 degrees Fahrenheit), unusually low for Argentina's late summer season, hit southern Buenos Aires on Saturday morning. The frosts returned on Sunday, concentrated in the southwestern part of the province.

"Surely it has done damage, especially to the very late planted soybeans that went into the ground in December. But we can't measure the damage for another seven to 10 days, when the damaged plants will turn from green to brown," said Anthony Deane, head of consultancy Weather-Wise Argentina.

Aside from being the No. 1 exporter of soyoil, used in the booming international biofuels sector, and soymeal animal feed, Argentina is the world's No. 3 supplier of soybeans and corn.

Its 2012/13 corn crop is not as likely to be damaged by the cold snap as corn fields are well past the flowering stages during which plants are most vulnerable to frost.

The government expects a 2012/13 corn crop of 27 million tonnes. More than 12 percent of the country's corn harvest has been collected, and soy harvesting is just getting started.

"This drop in temperatures could strengthen the probability that Argentina's soybean harvest will come in at the low end of expectations," said David Hughes, who manages soy, corn and wheat farms in Buenos Aires.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange expects Argentina to harvest 48.5 million tonnes of soybeans this season and 25 million tonnes of corn. Both estimates are down from earlier projections due to the difficult and widely oscillating weather.

The Pampas grains belt started the 2012/13 season with hard rains that flooded wide swathes of farmland. The same areas were parched by excessively dry, hot weather later in the season.

Argentina's record large soy harvest was 52.7 tonnes in the 2009/10 crop year, and a record high 23.8 million tonnes of corn were produced in the 2010/11 season. 

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Monday after a plan to tax bank accounts in Cyprus to help pay for the country's bailout stoked worries that it could threaten the stability of financial institutions in the euro zone.

The move pushed the S&P 500 farther from its 2007 record closing high of 1,565.15 after the index came within striking distance of the level last week.

Financial stocks led the day's decline, with the S&P 500 financial index down 1 percent, following a steep slide in European bank shares. JPMorgan Chase fell 1 percent to $49.51.

Cypriot ministers were trying to revise a plan to seize money from bank deposits before a parliamentary vote on Tuesday that will secure the island's financial rescue or could lead to its default. 

European officials have said the measure is a one-off for a country that accounts for just 0.2 percent of European output. The fear is that savers in larger European countries will become nervous and start withdrawing funds, although there was no immediate sign of that on Monday.

"There are worries about whether there will be any spillover from the Cyprus situation," said Nick Sargen, chief investment officer at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati, which oversees more than $45 billion.

"Will authorities be able to convince markets that this proposal is only for this unique situation, for such a small country where the banking system is more of a tax shelter? If they can’t, that might cause new concerns about Europe’s banking system."

The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 62.05 points, or 0.43 percent, to 14,452.06 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index shed 8.60 points, or 0.55 percent, to 1,552.10. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 11.48 points, or 0.35 percent, to close at 3,237.59.


Brent and Crude Oils - NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil slipped to near $109 a barrel on Monday after touching a three-month low, as a plan to tax bank accounts in debt-laden Cyprus sparked fears of further turmoil in the euro zone.

Prices fell as low as $107.78 a barrel in early trade, a level last hit in mid-December, but recovered after stronger employment data in the United States bolstered the outlook for energy demand.

Saudi Arabia's top oil official also said the current price won't hurt the economy, indicating the world's largest crude exporter sees little need to add additional supplies.

Brent crude settled down 31 cents at $109.51 per barrel after trading between $107.78 and $109.83 during the session.

U.S. oil fell to a low of $91.76 a barrel before reversing losses, settling 29 cents higher at $93.74 a barrel.

Oil markets will remain volatile for the next few days as investors watch for any spillover of the developments in Cyprus to other euro zone nations, analysts said.

Cypriot ministers were trying to revise a plan to seize money from bank deposits before a parliamentary vote on Tuesday that will secure the island's financial rescue or could lead to its default, with reverberations across the euro zone.

"Although Cyprus is small, there was some concern that it was being made a test case for policy," said Tim Evans at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

"The strong initial reaction has policy makers backpedaling from the deposit tax idea, but it may be hard for markets to forget the risk."

Gold rose to a two-week high above $1,600 an ounce and the U.S. dollar firmed as investors sought out safer assets. A stronger U.S. currency can weaken dollar-priced commodities like oil as they become more expensive for overseas buyers. 


LOSSES STEMMED
Further losses in oil were stopped by expectations of a stronger economy in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, and comments from Saudi Arabia's top energy official that oil prices near current levels won't hurt demand.

Almost all U.S. states began 2013 with lower unemployment rates than they had at the start of 2012, according to Labor Department data.

Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi said current oil prices will have no impact on growth in Asia. The region's biggest economies, including China, have struggled with rising energy costs in their efforts to boost growth.

Worries of an escalation in a standoff between the West and Iran over Tehran's disputed nuclear program could also help ensure prices do not fall much further. Concerns of supply disruption from the Middle East have kept Brent largely above $100 a barrel since early 2011.

In Libya, armed clashes broke out at an oil field belonging to Libya's Waha Oil on Monday, where protesters seeking jobs had been blocking the site entrance for the last eight days.



CBOT Soybean Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a fifth straight session on Monday, hitting a one-month low as export demand for U.S. soybeans slowed and the South American soy harvest expanded, traders said.

* Additional pressure spread across the commodities sector after an unusual bank bailout proposal for Cyprus threatened fresh euro zone turmoil, pushing traders to dump commodities and buy gold as a hedge.

·         USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 8.927 million bushels, below a range of trade expectations for 13 million to 27 million bushels.

·         Long liquidation noted ahead of USDA's prospective   plantings and quarterly stocks reports on March 28.
 
·         Soybean spot basis bids fell as much as 10 cents per   bushel at processing plants around the U.S. Midwest early on Monday amid poor profit margins and a slowdown in the soybean crush, dealers said.
 
·         Freezing temperatures hit southern Buenos Aires over the  weekend and may have hurt some late-planted soybeans, but the   extent of damage will not be known for a week or so, a local  forecaster said.



BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on Monday, as traders turned cautious after a radical bailout proposal for Cyprus rattled investors and triggered a broad-based decline in commodities and financial markets.

Euro zone finance ministers asked Cyprus savers to forfeit a portion of their deposits in return for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout for the island, sparking fears of fresh turmoil in the euro zone and worries about global demand.

"It seems like Europe is back to the headlines for the wrong reasons," said Ker Chung Yang, investment analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore. "We have probably seen the last of the rally last week, and this week could be the beginning of a downturn or corrections in the commodities market."

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.4 percent to close at 2,383 ringgit ($761) per tonne, also its low for the day. Prices traded in a tight range between 2,383 to 2,415 ringgit.

Total traded volume stood at 27,137 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil futures also continued to come under pressure from a weak soy market, which is suffering from poor U.S. demand and higher South American supply, losing 1.4 percent last week.

But seasonally lower output in Malaysia may help ease palm oil stocks and support prices, especially after cargo surveyor data on Friday showed firm export demand.

Malaysian palm oil shipments for the first half of the month were slightly better compared to the same period last month, with cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance reporting a 0.2 and 4.6 percent increase respectively.

In other markets, crude oil dropped to below $109 a barrel on Monday as stock markets tumbled and the dollar strengthened on the bank bailout proposal for Cyprus.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery lost 0.8 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange also dropped 0.4 percent.


Regional Equities - March 18 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks ended weaker on Monday, following Asian peers as nervous investors shifted to safer heavens after a radical bailout plan for Cyprus dented the appetite for risky assets globally.

Cyprus and international lenders agreed at the weekend that savers in the island's outsized banking system would take a hit in return for the offer of $13.07 billion in aid, breaking with the earlier European Union practice that depositors' savings were sacrosanct and raising fears it could set a precedent for future euro zone bail outs.

The Philippine lost 1.8 percent to a near five-week low of 6,536.18 with a 4.3 percent loss in SM Investment Corp

Thailand  fell 0.4 percent to 1,591.65 from a 19-year high of 1,598.13 hit in the previous session, led by a 2 percent fall in PTT Global Chemical Pcl (PTTGC)

Malaysia , the region's worst performer so far this year, fell 0.4 percent to a near four-week low of 1,621.36. Kuala Lumpur has seen the highest foreign inflow in the region, data showed on Monday.

Indonesia , the region's best performer in terms of foreign inflows, fell 0.3 percent to 4,802.83.
Jakarta-based analysts said concerns over the Cyprus bailout and a weak regional market, along with high domestic inflation dragged the market down.

Vietnam , the region's best performer and the smallest bourse, edged down 0.5 percent, while Singapore fell 0.9 percent to a near two-week low.