HAMBURG, Feb 19 (Reuters) - German oilseeds analyst Oil
World on Tuesday cut its forecast of the 2013 soybean harvest in Argentina by 2
million tonnes because of dry weather, but has raised its forecast of Brazil's
soybean crop by 0.5 million tonnes.
Oil World now forecasts Argentina will harvest 50.0 million
tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 52.0 million tonnes it forecast in
January and 53.0 million tonnes forecast in December but still up from the 39.9
million tonnes Argentina harvested in early 2012.
Hamburg-based Oil World also said it has raised its
forecast of Brazil's 2013 crop to 82.0 million tonnes from 81.5 million tonnes
forecast in January and up from 66.4 million tonnes Brazil harvested in early
2012 because of more favourable weather.
“It has been critically dry in the past four to six weeks
on at least 40 to 50 percent of the Argentine soybean area, depleting soil
moisture and creating crop stress,” Oil World said.
“There is the risk of additional downward revisions unless
the required rainfall arrives in the next one to three weeks.”
Global soybean consumers are intensely watching South
American crop developments as big Argentine and Brazilian harvests are needed
in early 2013 to relieve the tight global soybean market, where the U.S. is
carrying the main burden of meeting world export demand.
Soybean prices hit record highs in September 2012 as
drought hit the U.S. crop after poor Argentine and Brazilian harvests. Prices
later fell back as the U.S. harvest turned out better than feared and big South
American crops in early 2013 may relieve world supplies.
Argentina is the world's third-largest soybean exporter
after the United States and Brazil. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture on Feb.
8 forecast Argentina's 2013 soybean crop at 53.0 million tonnes. The
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange forecasts 50 million tonnes.
Argentina’s farm ministry on Friday said recent rain was
insufficient to help soybean crops and more rain is needed.
Brazil’s soybean harvest has started and Argentina’s will
begin in late March or early April, Oil World said.
Early Brazilian exports were delayed because of
lower-than-expected early harvested volumes and road transport delays after
rain, it said.
“It is now likely however, that Brazilian exports will
start increasing in the second half of February and gain momentum in March and
April,” Oil World said.
