HAMBURG, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Global
palm oil production is likely to be higher than expected in the 2012/13 season,
but global stocks may still fall because of high consumption, Hamburg-based
oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“World production of palm oil
exceeded expectations so far this season, making us raise our production
estimate to a new high of 55.3 million tonnes in Oct. 2012/Sept. 2013, 0.3
million tonnes above our previous estimate and 3.4 million tonnes above last
season,” Oil World said.
Output in top producer Indonesia in
2012/13 will reach 27.4 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes on the season,
Oil World estimates.
Malaysian 2012/13 palm oil output
will rise to 19.7 million tonnes, also up 1.5 million tonnes on the previous
season, it said.
Global palm oil supplies will remain
ample at least in Jan./June 2013 also partly owing to record world stocks in
January of 10.5 million tonnes, up by 1.8 million tonnes on January 2012, it
said. Stocks are important for global palm oil price development.
Low palm oil prices compared to rival
soyoil means global palm oil consumption may exceed production by about 1.4 to
1.5 million tonnes in Jan./Mar. 2013, reducing palm oil stocks despite the
higher-than-expected production, Oil World said.
World palm oil stocks may fall to
around 9.0 million tonnes in end March 2013, it said.
“This is likely to result in a
narrowing of the still unusually large price discount of palm oil relative to
soyoil,” it said.
