HAMBURG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts
Oil World said on Tuesday it has cut its forecasts of 2013 soybean harvests in
Argentina and Brazil by a combined 3 million tonnes because of unfavourable
weather disrupting sowings in both countries.
Oil World now forecasts Argentina will harvest 54.0 million
tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 56.0 million tonnes it forecast in
October but still up from 40.5 million tonnes Argentina harvested in early
2012.
Oil World forecasts Brazil will harvest 81.0 million tonnes
of soybeans in early 2013, down from 82.0 million tonnes forecast in October
but also still up from 66.8 million tonnes Brazil harvested in early 2012.
Soybean prices hit record highs in September as drought
ravaged the U.S. crop, but slumped to five-month lows on Friday as the U.S.
harvest turned out larger than expected and big South American output may
relieve world supplies in early 2013.
But some parts of Brazil are too dry to enable soybean
sowings while some Argentine plantings have been disrupted by repeated rain,
Oil World said.
“So far the market has shown little response to the
significant planting delays in Argentina, apparently trusting in the ability of
Argentine farmers to accomplish plantings and produce a large crop even under
detrimental conditions," it said.
Oil World stressed that global soybean stocks are declining
and The United States can satisfy a somewhat larger share of
global soybean demand than anticipated two months ago because its crop is
larger than feared, Oil World said.
“However, the recent pace of U.S. soybean exports and
crushings also exceeded expectations and will result in a severe depletion of
U.S. soybean stocks by early 2013,” it said. “It may thus be a risky policy to
bet on strong price pressure from large South American crops already today.”
