HAMBURG, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Soybean futures remain fundamentally well supported in the near term after poor Brazilian, Argentine and U.S. crops despite the sharp falls seen in the last week but are likely to fall in early 2013, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“We expect prices of soybeans and soymeal to be firm in the near term,” Oil World said. “Pronounced price pressure is expected to develop in Jan./June 2013 if the anticipated large South American crops materialize.”
U.S. soybean futures reached an all-time record of $17.94-3/4 a bushel in early September, lifted by supply worries after drought ravaged U.S. crops after sharply lower harvests in South America. But prices fell sharply in the past week as U.S. farmers sold their new crop heavily to cash in on high prices, while new estimates said the drought-damaged U.S. crop was larger than feared. (Full Story) (Full Story)
Chicago soybean contracts Q0#S: for delivery up to January are sharply higher than for contracts for delivery from March, when large new South American crops will arrive on the world market, Oil World said.
“The strongly inverted price structure has promoted substantial (U.S.) selling/harvest pressure, giving the false impression of ample U.S. soybean supplies,” it said.
But quick sales of the new and smaller U.S. soybean crop will only aggravate the supply shortage looming in the U.S. in the second half of the 2012/13 season following the smaller soybean crop, it said.
“A severe supply deficit will develop on the U.S. market in 2013 primarily in soybeans and soymeal,” it said. “The U.S. is also facing an increasing supply deficit of oils and fats but - as opposed to the U.S. feed sector - vegetable oils consumers have already become accustomed to increasingly rely on imports, primarily of canola (rapeseed) and palm oil.”
