HAMBURG, Aug 28 (Reuters) - China will have to cut its giant soybean imports in coming months because of tighter supplies after drought reduced crops in the United States and South America, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“For Sept. 2012/Feb. 2013 we estimate that Chinese soybean imports will have to be reduced by 4 to 5 million tonnes from the 27.5 million tonnes imported in the same six months of a year earlier,” Oil World said.
U.S. corn and soybean prices hit record highs this summer as scorching temperatures and a relentless drought ravaged crops in the United States, while drought also caused large drops in Argentine and Brazilian soybean harvests. GRA/
China accounted for 61 percent of global soybean imports in the first half of 2012, Oil World said.
The Chinese government is likely to increase sales of state soybean reserves to compensate for lower imports, Oil World said.
“In addition, China is likely to raise imports of Canadian canola (rapeseed) above its year-ago level in the next six months,” it said.
It added: “The prospective steep decline in soybean imports will result in a massive reduction of total Chinese soybean stocks below last year’s level as of end-February 2013, enforcing considerably higher imports in the second half of the 2012/13 season.”
This means the big South American crops looming in early 2013 will face major pent-up demand from China, it said.
Oil World forecasts Brazil’s soybean crop in early 2013 will rise to 82.0 million tonnes from 66.40 million tonnes in early 2012.
Argentina’s 2013 crop is likely to rise to 56.0 million tonnes from 40.50 million tonnes, it said.
