SAO PAULO, March 5 (Reuters) - Drought over Brazil's main southern grain states this season pushed down harvest and export estimates on Monday for the world's second biggest soybean crop.
The fresh downgrades in the leading South American soy crop may give further support to Chicago soybean futureswhich have been on a three-month tear, rising 21 percent since hitting a 14-month low mid-December.
Strong demand and damage to Brazil's and Argentina's soybean crops due to the recent dry weather, widely attributed to the effects of La Nina, have renewed concerns of global food shortages similar to those seen in 2008.
Grain crop analysts Celeres revised Brazil's 2011/12 soybean crop lower to 69.8 million tonnes, down from the 72 million seen in early February, as the effects of drought become more apparent.
Brazil harvested a record 74.9 million tonnes of soy last season, Celeres said.
Later in the day, the local grain crushing industry Abiove said Brazil would harvest 69.5 million tonnes, down from February's estimate of 71.9 million tonnes.
Abiove also said soybean exports would fall to 32 million tonnes from 33 million tonnes in its previous estimate. The grain industry association gave no explanation for the revision in its estimates.
Soy farmers had harvested 38 percent of the expected crop by March 2, up from 29 percent a week earlier and 24 percent a year ago, Celeres said. Historically, 22 percent of the crop is harvested by the first week of March.
The soy harvest is at its peak amid dry weather in the big production states. Local meteorologists Somar forecast dry, hot conditions in the main soy belt for the next week which will favor field work and the flow of grain to silos and trucks and onwards to ports for ships headed abroad.
Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soy state, is forecast to harvest a record 22.2 million tonnes, up from 20.5 million last year, after it dodged the drought that blighted states further south and expanded its planted area. Crops in No. 2 and No. 3 soy states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul have been ravaged by drought.
The fresh downgrades in the leading South American soy crop may give further support to Chicago soybean futures
Strong demand and damage to Brazil's and Argentina's soybean crops due to the recent dry weather, widely attributed to the effects of La Nina, have renewed concerns of global food shortages similar to those seen in 2008.
Grain crop analysts Celeres revised Brazil's 2011/12 soybean crop lower to 69.8 million tonnes, down from the 72 million seen in early February, as the effects of drought become more apparent.
Brazil harvested a record 74.9 million tonnes of soy last season, Celeres said.
Later in the day, the local grain crushing industry Abiove said Brazil would harvest 69.5 million tonnes, down from February's estimate of 71.9 million tonnes.
Abiove also said soybean exports would fall to 32 million tonnes from 33 million tonnes in its previous estimate. The grain industry association gave no explanation for the revision in its estimates.
Soy farmers had harvested 38 percent of the expected crop by March 2, up from 29 percent a week earlier and 24 percent a year ago, Celeres said. Historically, 22 percent of the crop is harvested by the first week of March.
The soy harvest is at its peak amid dry weather in the big production states. Local meteorologists Somar forecast dry, hot conditions in the main soy belt for the next week which will favor field work and the flow of grain to silos and trucks and onwards to ports for ships headed abroad.
Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soy state, is forecast to harvest a record 22.2 million tonnes, up from 20.5 million last year, after it dodged the drought that blighted states further south and expanded its planted area. Crops in No. 2 and No. 3 soy states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul have been ravaged by drought.
