Tuesday, March 6, 2012

RTRS- FACTBOX-Top analysts to issue forecasts on 2012 palm oil markets

March 5 (Reuters) - Traders, planters and refiners will discuss palm oil prices and the state of the industry this week at Bursa Malaysia's three day conference in Kuala Lumpur -- the largest and first industry gathering for 2012.

Following are the predictions last year by the top three analysts who closely follow vegetable oil markets and benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.

THOMAS MIELKE: Speaks at 11.05 am (0305 GMT) on March 7

The Hamburg-based analyst has published vegetable oils and oilseed newsletter Oil World since the mid-1980s. Mielke focuses on the supply dynamics of the world's 17 oils and fats, 10 oilseed and 12 oilmeals.

FORECAST IN 2011: Malaysian palm oil prices to fall to 2,850 ringgit in October-December 2011 on higher palm oil production. He also said palm oil prices were not sustainable at $1,250 per tonne. [ID:nL3E7E914W]

WHAT HAPPENED: Palm oil prices fell to 2,754 ringgit on Oct 6, the lowest in the last quarter of 2011, due to signs of bumper palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia.

JAMES FRY: Speaks at 11.35 am (0335) on March 7

Oxford-educated Fry is the chairman of global commodities consultancy LMC International. He uses statistical data on Brent crude oil, Malaysian palm oil stocks and biodiesel usage for his forecasts.

FORECAST IN 2011: A hard landing or sharp fall in prices would see Brent crude oil at $70 a barrel and crude palm oil at 2,250 ringgit a tonne in the fourth quarter, after a price spike in the second quarter. [ID:nL3E7E90QB]

A soft landing or gradual easing of prices would lower Brent crude oil to $85, and crude palm oil to 2,660 ringgit in the fourth quarter.

WHAT HAPPENED: The market went for a soft landing with palm oil prices dropping to 2,754 ringgit per tonne on concerns over euro zone debt crisis and ample edible oil supplies.

But losses were limited by strong demand and crude oil staying above $100 a barrel.

DORAB MISTRY: Speaks at 2.30 pm (0630) on March 7

London-based Mistry handles the international vegetable oil trading portfolio for India's Godrej Industries . He is known for his bullish view on palm oil prices and presents papers in relation to India, the world's top palm oil buyer.

FORECAST IN 2011: Palm oil to hit 4,000 ringgit per tonne in the next few weeks after March on higher energy prices, tight stocks and pent up demand for vegetable oils. [ID:nL3E7E904Z]

WHAT HAPPENED: Prices went as low as 3,163 ringgit weeks after Mistry's forecast due to concern