Thursday, March 14, 2013

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged up on Wednesday, with the Dow rising for the ninth straight session to another record, buoyed by surprisingly strong retail sales that suggested the economy is gaining momentum.

The Dow Jones industrial average's nine-day winning streak is the longest consecutive run since November 1996.

But trading volume was light. Moves have been muted in recent days as investors consolidate positions after a strong run-up in the first three months of the year. Still, weakness in stocks has been met with buying, which helped propel the market's advance.

The broader S&P 500 is within striking distance of its all-time closing high of 1,565.15 and about 1 percent away from all-time intraday high of 1,576.09 - both set in 2007.

"I think we will soon see the S&P at all-time high levels. I don't think the market has topped yet, and there is still strength to move the market higher," said Ari Wald, technical strategist at C&Co/PrinceRidge in New York.

"Will we see a correction of 10 percent or so soon? Not imminently. We have not seen a divergence of behavior yet where participants become more selective on which stocks to buy."

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 5.22 points, or 0.04 percent, to 14,455.28, another record closing high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 2.04 points, or 0.13 percent, to 1,554.52. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.80 points, or 0.09 percent, to end at 3,245.12.

Signs of strength in the economy and the Federal Reserve's easy monetary policy have helped U.S. equities accelerate their advance. The blue-chip Dow is up 10.3 percent for the year and the benchmark S&P 500 index has gained 9 percent.

Wednesday's retail sales report reinforced the view that the U.S. economy has momentum, even with the obstacles the recovery is facing. Sales increased 1.1 percent in February, the largest increase since September.

Investors had been looking for signs of any impact on spending from stubbornly high unemployment and a higher payroll tax that went into effect at the start of the year.


Brent Crude Oil NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil fell on Tuesday after seesawing with the euro and the dollar, and as OPEC's trimmed forecast for U.S. and euro zone economic growth also applied pressure.

Brent April crude fell 57 cents, or 0.52 percent, to settle at $109.65 a barrel, having traded from $109.30 to $111.20.


CBOT SoybeanSoybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1.5 percent on technical selling and talk of slowing demand from top global soy buyer China, traders said.

* The most-active May soybean contract fell for a second straight session, dropping below its 20-day moving average to settle at its lowest level since March 1.
 
·         Market pressured by weakening cash soybean bids in the  U.S. Pacific Northwest, which signaled a slowdown in export  demand as the South American harvest progresses. Cash bids for   soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf also eased. 
 
·         Nearby soybean contracts lost to back months on spreads, eroding some of the premiums that shorter-dated contracts have  built up amid concerns about historically tight U.S. supplies.
 
·         The spring weather pattern for the United States looks  greatly improved from a year ago, when drought was both  widespread and severe, AccuWeather said in its 2013 U.S. spring weather outlook.
 
·         Losses in soyoil limited by firming U.S. cash values.

·         Egypt's Meditrade issued an international tender to purchase up to 15,000 tonnes of soyoil and 15,000 tonnes of  sunflower oil, European traders said. 
 
·         CBOT said deliveries against March futures included five  contracts of soybeans, one for soymeal and three for soyoil. 


BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to a two-month low on Wednesday as weakness persisted in overseas soybean markets, although traders said easing palm oil output should provide some support.

U.S. soybean prices have been pressured by weak export demand, which also weighed on soybean oil, with China's soybean oil losing more than 3 percent so far this week.

Palm oil tends to track soybean oil prices closely as the commodities are used as substitutes for one another. But traders said a decline in production in February that may continue this month could provide some support for palm oil prices.

"Liquidation persists in futures, although some traders think it is funds-related," said a trader with a commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "The well-advertised supply constraints should keep fundamentals intact."

By Wednesday's close, the benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had dropped 0.6 percent to 2,397 ringgit ($773) per tonne, slightly above its intraday low of 2,365 ringgit, a level unseen since January 14.

Total traded volume stood at 31,784 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

But despite short-term weakness, market participants said palm oil fundamentals remained intact, on hopes that stocks will continue to ease on lower production and a demand recovery.

Malaysian palm oil stocks fell to 2.44 million tonnes in February from 2.58 million in January, thanks largely to a near 20 percent drop in production. 
Export demand for the March 1-10 period was flat with a month ago, with traders now shifting their focus to the March 1-15 data due on Friday for a better indication of the demand trend.

Crude palm oil shipments fell by more than half after Malaysia raised its export tax for the grade to 4.5 percent from zero percent. Top rival Indonesia increased its tariff to 10.5 percent from 9 percent for the month.

In other markets, Brent futures eased on Wednesday as Asian equities lost ground on concerns their recent rally was running out of steam, but expectations of steady global consumption growth and a surprise fall in U.S. stockpiles held the benchmark above $109 a barrel.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery edged down 0.4 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange lost 1.8 percent.


Regional Equities - BANGKOK, March 13 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday as weaknesses in Asia weighed on appetite for risk assets, with losses in large-caps and financials pulling Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia down to their lowest close in nearly a week.

Singapore' Straits Times Index was down 0.4 percent at 3288.52, paring gains from the past two sessions. Jakarta's Composite Index (JCI) slid 0.4 percent to 4,835.44, playing catch-up with regional losses, after being shut on Tuesday.

CIMB strategists maintained an 'overweight' rating on Indonesia and kept its JCI index target at 5,100, reflecting its earnings upgrades of listed firms.

"An upward earnings revision for the second month in a row in February by 1 percent was rewarded with an impressive 8 percent gain in the JCI during the month," they wrote in a report dated March 12.

"We stay overweight for now, betting on further earnings upside. Our March picks center mainly on mid- and small-cap growth and value stocks in property and banking," it said.

Shares in PT Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk, among CIMB's top picks in March, eased 0.5 percent to 9,900 rupiah. The stock hit a record close of 10,050 rupiah on Feb. 28.

Kuala Lumpur's Composite Index , Asia's worst performer this year, fell 0.6 percent to 1,646.22. Among losers, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd shed nearly 2 percent.

In Singapore, Keppel Corp Ltd was down 1.1 percent after the world's largest builder of offshore oil rigs lost a deal worth $1.2 billion.

After a rangebound session, the Thai index ended up 0.13 percent at 1,578.70, a new 19-year closing high. The Philippine index was down 0.15 percent at 6,776.56 while Vietnam fell for a second day, down 0.5 percent.