Friday, August 10, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The Standard & Poor's 500 extended its rally to a fifth day on Thursday, again eking out a tiny gain as lingering expectations for economic stimulus from central banks lent support to a market lacking new catalysts.

While the S&P 500 has chalked up three-month highs every day this week, the index has climbed only 0.6 percent over the past three sessions - an indication that investors aren't prepared to make aggressive bets despite better-than-expected jobless claims and U.S. trade data.

The Nasdaq outperformed the other two major U.S. stock indexes, led by Cisco Systems Inc CSCO.O after Goldman Sachs added the company to its conviction buy list and Piper Jaffray upgraded it to "overweight." Cisco rose 3.2 percent to $17.70 and was the Dow's biggest percentage gainer.(nL4E8J9668)
The three major U.S. stock indexes seesawed throughout the morning, with the S&P 500 mostly hovering above 1,400 in light trade as investors bet central banks would soon act to support a global recovery that has shown signs of stalling.

"It's almost eerie how flat the market has been. But while there's a risk of our becoming overbought, I don't see why we'd see a decline of any magnitude until we hear what central banks will do," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 10.45 points, or 0.08 percent, to 13,165.19 at the close. But the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX inched up 0.58 of a point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,402.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 7.39 points, or 0.25 percent, to close at 3,018.64.

Markets held on despite a raft of weak Chinese economic data. Annual growth in factory output slowed to its lowest in more than three years in July while annual consumer price inflation hit a 30-month low. (nL4E8J93OR)

"This news is disappointing, but it only emboldens investors that we'll be rescued by central banks somewhere," said Luschini, who helps oversee $54 billion in assets.

Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week while the U.S. trade deficit in June was the smallest in 1-1/2 years, hopeful signs for the struggling economy. (nL2E8J92F7)

Beauty products maker Elizabeth Arden RDEN.O forecast 2013 profit above estimates on stronger sales and its shares jumped 13 percent to $44.02. (nL2E8J735Q)

Of the 445 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported second-quarter earnings through Thursday morning, 68 percent have reported earnings above analysts' expectations, in line with the average over the last four quarters.

Volume was light, with about 5.41 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, well below last year's daily average of 7.84 billion.

About 52.5 percent of companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange closed higher, while 53 percent of Nasdaq-listed shares gained for the day.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged up a penny on Thursday, paring gains as the potential threat to U.S. Gulf Coast energy infrastructure from Tropical Storm Ernesto faded, while the stronger dollar .DXY helped limit gains from supportive economic data.

U.S. gasoline RBc1 and heating oil HOc1 futures rose more than 2 cents, tracking higher with stronger Brent crude LCOc1 futures.

CBOT SOYBEAN-Benchmark November soybean futures SX2 on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 3 percent, their biggest rise in a month, on news of U.S. soy sales to China and positioning a day ahead of the U.S.Department of Agriculture's August supply/demand reports.

* USDA said exporters reported sales of 165,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13. (nL2E8J92NL)

• Export traders said China may have purchased up to about half a million tonnes of U.S. soybeans for September through December shipment. The spot CIF soybean barges basis at the Gulf GRYM jumped to a three-year peak as exporters scrambled for nearby supplies.

• Bull-spreading noted in CBOT soybean futures, with nearbys gaining against back months, due to the nearby U.S. soy sales to China and expectations of continued strong demand for U.S. supplies until the next South American soy harvest starts in February.

• CBOT soymeal supported by news that a Kansas ethanol plant was suspending operations (nL2E8J976K), a move that was seen restricting supplies of dried distillers' grain, a source of protein in animal feed, and raising demand for soymeal.

• Traders await USDA's monthly supply/demand reports on Friday. Analysts expect USDA to lower its forecasts of U.S. soybean production, yield and harvested acreage, as well as ending stocks for both 2011/12 and 2012/13. (nL2E8J7353)

• Modest rains in portions of the Midwest this week to provide only minimal relief from drought. Rainfall this week totaled 0.25 to 1.00 inch and was scattered over about half of the Midwest, but only about 25 percent received the heavier amount. (nL2E8J9304)

• USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 300,400 tonnes, below trade expectations for 350,000 to 450,000 tonnes.

• USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 211,700 tonnes, above trade expectations, and soyoil sales at 12,900 tonnes, below expectations.

• Brazil's government kept its forecast for the now completed soybean harvest nearly unchanged at 66.4 million tonnes, compared to 66.37 million tonnes in July. (nE5E8EL040)

• CBOT once again reported no deliveries of soybeans or soymeal against August futures. But soyoil deliveries totaled 846 contracts.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures recovered a little on Thursday from a near 8-week low hit the previous day, although traders remained cautious ahead of a slew of key industry reports that could stir more market volatility.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its monthly supply and demand report on Friday that is likely to show a cut in estimates for new-crop soy output, potentially limiting edible oil supply and shifting some demand to palm oil.

Traders are looking out for the July stocks data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), which is likely to have reached a five month high and could help shore up a deficit in global vegetable oil supply. PALM/POLL

"(Palm oil) futures are a little bit oversold so we are expecting some technical pullback. But upside potential is very limited as long as Malaysian stocks remain on the high side," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

The benchmark October palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended 0.1 percent higher at 2,865 ringgit ($923) per tonne. Prices touched a low of 2,854 ringgit on Wednesday, a level last seen on June 15.

Total traded volumes were thin at 20,741 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil stocks likely climbed in July to their highest since February as exports slow and production rises, snapping four straight months of declines, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday. (nL4E8J73WI)

Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance will release exports data for the Aug 1-10 period also on Friday. PALM/ITS PALM/SGS

Palm oil exports suffered a double-digit decline in July as festival demand eased, cargo surveyor data showed. Traders are now pinning their hopes on the recently announced tax-free crude palm oil export quotas of 2 million tonnes to help reduce stocks in coming months.

The industry is also watching out for a possibility of El Nino returning to Southeast Asia, as the hot and dry weather pattern could damage palm oil yields for top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly higher on Thursday, with Indonesia being led higher by banking shares and Thailand extending gains for a fourth session amid renewed appetite for refinery shares on hopes of an earnings recovery in the second half.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE rose 0.99 percent, led by a 3.8 percent rise in top lender Bank Mandiri Tbk BMRI.JK. Thai SET index .SETI gained 0.3 percent as refiners, including Thai Oil TOP.BK and Esso ESSO.BK, jumped on strong volumes.

Singapore markets were closed for a public holiday.

The Philippine index .PSI slid 0.98 percent, erasing a modest gain of 0.5 percent on Wednesday as investors cashed in gains in the rallying market. It has risen 20.2 percent so far this year, and is Southeast Asia's second-best performer.

Ayala Land Inc ALI.PS, the Philippines' biggest property developer, dropped 5 percent, wiping out a three-day gain of 8.5 percent following the company's release of strong six-month net profit. (nL4E8J329B)

"There will be a shortage in terms of market-moving news, going forward, after the earnings reporting season. I guess it was a perfect time to take some profits off the table," said analyst Jose Vistan of AB Capital Securities Inc in Manila.