Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street ushered in the Barack Obama presidency with a record Inauguration Day drop on Tuesday amid fresh signs the global bank crisis was far from over.

High expectations for details on how the new administration would address the growing banking crisis and faltering economy were dampened after the inauguration speech concluded with little new information to digest.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 332.13 points, or 4.01 percent, to 7,949.09. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 44.90 points, or 5.28 percent, to 805.22. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> tumbled 88.47 points, or 5.78 percent, to 1,440.86.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher on Tuesday as traders covered short positions ahead of the February crude contract's expiration, narrowing the spread between the front month and March contracts to just above $2.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude expired and settled up $2.23, or 6.11 percent, at $38.74 a barrel, trading from $32.70 to $39.55.

The day's bottom was a new contract low for February crude and it marked the lowest front-month price since $32.40 was struck on Dec. 19, 2008.

NYMEX March crude ended down $1.73, or 4.06 percent, at $40.84, trading from $39.11 to $43.79. The March contract low is $38.00. Other nearby months also were lower.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March down 28 cents at $9.92 a bushel.

Firm dollar and profit-taking weighed on soy futures as did corn/soy spreading and some midday forecasts for improved rainfall in Argentina.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March off 0.78 cent at 33.81 cents a pound. Firm dollar pressures soyoil futures despite rebound in crude oil prices.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures finished 1.7 percent lower on Tuesday, hit by falling crude oil and soyoil prices, traders said.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 32 ringgit, or 1.7 percent, to 1,827 ringgit a tonne ($506).

Other traded contracts fell between 14 and 28 ringgit. Overall volume was at 14,133 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks tracked a
slump in global equities on Tuesday amid growing concern about the world financial sector, with losses in financial shares dragging Singapore and Jakarta to their lowest in over a month.

Singapore led the regional losses, with the benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> ending down 1.35 percent after falling as much as 3.1 percent in early trade

On Monday Royal Bank of Scotland said it would record the biggest loss in U.K. corporate history, as Britain launched a second bank rescue plan that failed to restore confidence in the wobbly financial sector

Malaysian stocks <.KLSE> shed 1.1 percent to the lowest since Jan. 2, the Thai index <.SETI> slipped 0.6 percent, the Philippine index <.PSI> slid 1.3 percent to its lowest since Dec. 24 and Vietnam <.VNI> lost 0.7 percent to a near one-month low.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures fall on the back of weak market sentiment.

CPO futures fall on the back of weak market sentiment. Weaker NYMEX crude oil coupled with easier E-CBOT soyoil prices traded in Asian time had weighed on local front. First 20 days of January export data released by private cargo surveyors were came within market expectation with both ITS and SGS dropped more than 30 per cent compare to the same period last month. This has resulted benchmark Apr 09 remains under pressure with a tight range after the opening bell at 1818. Bargain hunting activities were saw prices surviving at 1800 mark by midday break. News on India may tax on CPO imports had prompted late selling interest emerged. Apr 09 hit the intra-day low at 1799. Some intra-day short covering helped to cushion the market momentum and sent prices to hit the day high at 1850. However, prices then eased off due to lack of follow through buying support. At the closing bell, Apr 09 settled at 1827, down RM 32 with total daily volume stood at 14,133 contracts changed hands.

FCPO Daily: 1800 mark try hard to defend


Give a big clap to 1800 as it tried hard to defend well. Market tested the 1800 mark intra-day basis but manage to climb back to close above it. Chart wise, market may extend its sideways mode. We continue to look for downside support at 1800-1790 followed by 1738-1723. Upside resistance is at 1860-1870 followed by 1890.

KLSE Daily: in weak tone


Market likely to extend its sideways to lower move in near term as tested the immediate support at 880. Currently, downside support is pegged at 870-860. Upside resistance is at 888-889 (gap left over on 20/1/2009).

DJI Daily: Cautious !! 8000 mark violated


As mentioned earlier, a break below of 8000 mark may indicate more room to downside potential. As for now, we are looking for the recent low at 7882-7449. For upside, resistance is at 8300-8600.

FKLI Daily: More room to downside potential


Market extended its losing streak and violated the support at 885-875 had dampened further the immediate technical landscape. We are now looking for the downside support at 865-860. Upside resistance is at 883.5-887 (gap left over on 20/1/2009).

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-India may tax palm oil, ease rice, wheat trade

NEW DELHI, Jan 20 (Reuters) - India may tax crude palm oil imports and relax export rules for wheat and basmati rice, the farm minister said, as tumbling prices and bumper crops allow it to unwind measures imposed last year to smoothen domestic supply.

Breaking News-RTRS-US stimulus not enough, TARP bailout misused-Soros

WASHINGTON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The stimulus plan the U.S. government is currently considering is necessary to help American citizens, but it will likely not reverse the country's economic decline, hedge fund manager and billionaire philanthropist George Soros said on Monday.
"It is not enough to turn the situation around," Soros told the U.S. Conference of Mayors about the $850 billion proposal to increase spending and cut taxes.
The plan, which was introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives last week and will likely be passed by next month, will help state and local governments balance their budgets and preserve important social services, Soros said.
At the same time, the $700 billion financial bailout known as TARP for Troubled Assets Relief Program had been carried out in a "haphazard and capricious way" and "without proper planning," he said.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysia may scrap palm oil windfall tax-report

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Malaysia may scrap a windfall tax on palm oil if the price rises further, the country's commodities minister Peter Chin was quoted as saying on Monday by state news agency Bernama.
The Malaysian government in June imposed a windfall tax on crude palm oil sales of above 2,000 ringgit ($559.3) per tonne, following a surge in palm oil prices that in March rose to above 4,000 ringgit ($1,119) a tonne.

Trader's Highlight

FCPO-JAKARTA, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures finished 1.4 percent higher on Monday, underpinned by expectations of supportive data on exports for the first 20 days of January, traders said.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 26 ringgit, or 1.4 percent, to 1,859 ringgit a tonne ($520).

Other traded contracts rose between 16 ringgit and 25 ringgit. Overall volume was at 10,407 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> closed up 0.96
percent.

Singapore's government is due to announce the state budget on Jan. 22 and the market expects it to contain incentives to help revive business and the economy, dealers said.

Stocks elsewhere in Asia were mostly lower, although investors were looking for U.S. President-elect Barack Obama to quickly roll out hefty economic stimulus spending and a revived plan to buy bad bank assets.

Thailand's stock index <.SETI> edged up 0.12 percent, Malaysia's <.KLSE> lost 0.69 percent, Jakarta stocks <.JKSE> slid 0.97 percent, the Philippine index <.PSI> fell 1.4 percent to its lowest since Dec. 24 and Vietnam <.VNI> was off 0.37 percent.

KLSE Daily: losing ground


Immediate daily technical outlook weakened further following prices continue to lose ground. Market may maintain sideways to lower move in near term with immediate support at 880. Immediate upside resistance is at 900 followed by 907-910 (gap left over on 15/1/2009).

FKLI Daily: Market momentum turns weak


Market momentum turns weaker following prices failed to sustain at 900 mark after covered some of the upside gap. Thus, we are now looking for the downside support at 885-875. For upside, resistance is at 902.5-907 (remaining gap left over since 15/1/2009).

FCPO Daily: struggle to survive at 18000 mark


Market looks struggle to survive at 1800 mark following prices has been hovering tightly between 1800 to 1870 level after covered the full gap at 1844-1856. Chart wise, market remains in sideways mode. We continue to look for downside support at 1800-1790 followed by 1738-1723. Upside resistance is at 1890-1900 followed by 1913-1935 (gap left over on 13/1/2009).

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended in positive territory after a lackluster trading day.

Palm oil futures ended in positive territory after a lackluster trading day. Benchmark Apr09 opened RM17 higher at 1850 tracking a higher overnight NYMEX crude oil and CBOT soy complex. It fell to 1838, fully covered its yesterday’s left over gap, but immediately bounced back again to hit the intra day high of 1872. It then began to hover between 1861-1843 level through out most of the sessions. Some profit taking activities appeared in late second session sent CPO prices to intra day low of 1833. Nevertheless, it was well supported and Benchmark Apr09 managed to push up into the earlier range before it finally settled RM26 higher at 1859. Trading volume was rather thin due to lack of fresh lead as eCBOT and Asian time crude oil closed. Tonight’s market (CBOT & NYMEX) will be closed for Martin Luther King’s holiday. Traders were also awaiting export data, which is due to be released tomorrow.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine soy crop suffering the drought - reports

BUENOS AIRES, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2008/09 soy crop is deteriorating due to a drought affecting much of the growing region, the Agriculture Secretariat said on Friday in a weekly crop progress report.
Record soy production is expected this year as farmers seed more lands than ever with the oilseed. But if dry conditions persist, the bright outlook could darken for the world's No. 3 soybean exporter and its top supplier of soyoil and meal.
Conditions could be improved in Argentina's central agricultural region by rains expected over the weekend, a report from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.

Breaking News-RTRS-Informa sees 2009 US corn acres at 82.7 mln -trade

CHICAGO, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Analytical firm Informa Economics estimated U.S. corn plantings for 2009 at 82.7 million acres and soybeans at 80.8 million, trade sources said on Friday.
The firm's projections compare with 86 million corn acres planted in the spring of 2008 and 75.7 million soybean acres, based on U.S. Agriculture Department data.
In December, Informa projected 2009 U.S. acres for corn at 82.288 million and soybeans at 81.455 million.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysia swaps palm for fertiliser with N.Korea-report

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Malaysia has imported fertiliser components from North Korea in exchange for palm oil in a barter trade deal last month, a Malay language newspaper reported on Sunday.
The deal comes as the world's second largest producer of palm oil tries to further reduce its stock levels and slash a ballooning fertiliser import bill, Commodities Minister Peter Chin said. "We have already started the barter trade with North Korea and will extend this to Morocco, Jordan and Syria because these countries have the fertiliser components we need," Chin was quoted by Mingguan Malaysia newspaper as saying.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Friday on strength in the energy sector and companies that hold up well in recessions, while reassuring comments from Britain's Barclays late in the day helped financials cut losses that had driven the market lower earlier.

The banking sector was in the spotlight throughout the session after a fresh $20 billion government capital injection for Bank of America revived worries about the fate of the sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 68.73 points, or 0.84 percent, to 8,281.22. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 6.38 points, or 0.76 percent, to 850.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 17.49 points, or 1.16
percent, at 1,529.33.

Markets will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, a day before the inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher in volatile trading on Friday as traders covered short positions before the February contract expires on Tuesday.

Prices rose ahead of the long holiday weekend. Floor trading will be closed on Monday, the Martin Luther King holiday, though electronic trading will proceed as usual.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, February crude settled up $1.11, or 3.14 percent, at $36.51, trading from $34.18 to $36.73. That was inside Thursday's range of $33.20, the lowest since crude hit $32.40 on Dec. 19, and $37.99.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March up 25-1/2 at $10.20 per bushel.

Persistent hot and dry weather in Argentina that is stressing the soy and corn crops boosted prices in addition to continued active export sales of U.S. soy, especially to China, the world's largest soybean buyer.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- March up 0.19 cent at 34.59 cents per lb.

Spillover support from soaring soy amid drought in Argentina, the world's largest soyoil exporter.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 1.6 percent on Friday as fears of lower South American soyoil production gripped vegetable oil markets, although sharp overnight falls in crude curbed gains.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 28 ringgit at 1,833 ringgit ($512.4) after initially going as high as 1,840 ringgit.

Other traded months ranged between a 39 ringgit rise and a 53 ringgit drop <0#KPO:>. Overall trade stood at 12,644 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-A rise in Wall Street stock futures after Washington pumped $20 billion into Bank of America buoyed Asian sentiment and encouraged investors to put money into equities, even though dismal economic data has made market players wary again.

Singapore's Straits Times index <.FTSTI> gained 1.6 percent, recovering from a 3.4 percent fall on Thursday, with DBS Group rising 3.4 percent, and United-Overseas Bank and Oversea-Chinese Banking both up 3.1 percent.

In Kuala Lumpur, the index <.KLSE> slid 0.11 percent, extending losses into a fourth day ahead of a key by-election at the weekend.

FCPO Weekly: Maintain sideways to Higher


Market tested the 2000 mark but not manage to hold. However, 1800 mark was defended well. We maintain our sideways to higher view in near term market. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 2058. While, downside support is pegged at 1750-1720.

DJI Weekly: Crucial support at 8000 mark


Market tested 8000 mark but manage to hold on above it. However, failure to hold at 8000 mark again may see bear taking place more aggressively. Resistance is now looking at 9065-9088. Downside support is pegged at 7882-7449 level.