Breaking News-RTRS-PREVIEW-USDA to confirm thin US soy stocks, big grain build

By Christine Stebbins
CHICAGO, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Red-hot demand for U.S. soybeans from China during 2009 have likely drawdown soy stocks to their lowest level in three decades, while corn and wheat stocks are building, analysts said.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture will report on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) the amount of soybeans, corn and wheat held by farmers and grain firms on Sept. 1. While the quarterly grain stocks report typically is not a market shaker, it sets the stage for the upcoming season for corn and soy.
Sept. 1 marks the start of the 2009/10 marketing year for both, so the quarterly stocks data becomes the official year-end data. Currently, USDA in its Sept. 14 supply/demand report estimated corn 08/09 end-season stocks at 1.695 billion bushels and soybeans at 110 million.

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World sees booming U.S. soy exports from Oct

AMSTERDAM, Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. exports of soybeans, soy oil and meal are expected to rise sharply from October but will not be able to offset a sharp decline in South American supply, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
Delayed harvesting in several parts of the United States has contributed to scarce soybean supplies at U.S. export locations, but Oil World expects the situation to reverse in coming months as harvesting picks up.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as a surprise drop in a gauge of consumer confidence overshadowed signs of stabilization in housing and solid earnings from Walgreen Co . With the third quarter drawing to a close, trading was volatile and volume light.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 47.16 points, or 0.48 percent, to 9,742.20. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 2.37 points, or 0.22 percent, to 1,060.61. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dipped 6.70 points, or 0.31 percent, to 2,124.04.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures moved slightly lower in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after industry data showed that crude oil inventories rose more than expected last week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration will issue its own weekly data on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 5 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT), November crude was down 35 cents, or 0.52 percent, at $66.49 a barrel. It had settled down 13 cents, or 0.19 percent, at $66.71, trading trading from $65.82 to $67.33.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November down 2-1/2 at $9.17 a bushel. Turned lower after early climb on prospects for a huge U.S. soy harvest. Reports continue that harvest yields will be huge this season. Corn/soy spreading weighs on beans.

CBOT-SOYOIL - October up 0.23 cent per lb at 33.47 cents per lb; December up 0.22 cent to 33.85 cents. Rebounded late on short-covering.

positioning before USDA issues Sept. 1 stocks data and annual wheat summary Wednesday. USDA expected to confirm thin U.S. soy stocks, big grain build.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged higher on Tuesday, recovering a little from two-week lows hit the previous day as traders begin to bet on improved demand in coming weeks.

The benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange rose 2 ringgit to 2,105 ringgit ($604.3) per tonne after going as high as 2,127 ringgit. The previous day, the market fell to 2,082 ringgit, a level unseen since Sept. 14.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Shares in Singapore and Indonesia gained more than 1 percent on Tuesday, leading a rebound across Southeast Asian stock markets as big caps such as DBS, Astra International and Bangkok Bank recovered some recent losses.

Thailand's index <.SETI> rose 0.9 percent, Malaysia <.KLSE> was up 0.19 percent, the Philippines <.PSI> 0.8 percent and Vietnam <.VNI> inched up 0.1 percent.

Singapore's DBS Group Holdings , Southeast Asia's biggest bank, climbed 1.2 percent, plantation and palm oil processor Wilmar International rose 1.6 percent and Genting Singapore added 2.7 percent.

FCPO Daily: Remains weak

We stick to sideways to bias downside potential in near term market despite prices consolidate around 2100 mark. A breakout from the recent low at 2070 may provide more room to bias downside potential. While, upside resistance is pegged at 2190-2200.

CBOT SOYOIL Daily: Struggling to survivie

Market is struggling around USD33 and trying to defend. Nevertheless, overall momentum remains weak. Thus, we maintain sideways to bias downside potential in near term. Immediate downside support is pegged at USD33.00 followed by USD32. To the upside, resistance is looking at USD35.

FKLI Daily: Entering into consolidation zone

Market is entering into consolidation zone with moving in bias sideways manner. Thus, we continue to look for the immediate downside support at 1200 followed by 1190-1185. To the upside, resistance is maintain at 1232-1240.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures down sharply lower on bearish forecast.

Palm oil futures down sharply lower on bearish forecast. Benchmark Dec09 immediately gap down RM56 to open at 2130 and under pressure through out most of the sessions. It broke below 2100 level after second session resumed and hit intra day low of 2082 before some bargain hunters came in to provide some support. Prices then hovered between 2115-2095 and settled RM83 lower at 2103. The bearish statement made by a well-known industry analyst Mr Dorab Mistry at the Global Vege Oil Conference in India over the weekend, had caused some selling pressure to BMD. Mr Mistry stated that palm oil prices need to drop to RM1900 for demand to rebound and keep stocks under control. Meanwhile, weaker external markets had also enhanced the selling sentiment as both eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm fell more than 1% lower.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as a spurt of corporate takeovers in the technology and health-care sectors fueled optimism about share values.

Mergers and acquisitions are typically viewed as bullish as it suggests companies are more optimistic about the business outlook.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 124.17 points, or 1.28 percent, to end at 9,789.36. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 18.60 points, or 1.78 percent, to 1,062.98. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shot up 39.82 points, or 1.90 percent, to 2,130.74.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose more than 1 percent on Monday, on jitters over Iran's latest test-firing of missiles and as Wall Street rallied on stepped up mergers and acquisition activity.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude settled up 82 cents, or 1.24 percent, at $66.84 a barrel, trading from $65.41 to $67.54.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November down 6-1/2 cents per bushel at $9.19-1/2.

Pressure from approach of harvest of potential record large U.S. soybean crop.
Possible frost overnight Monday and early Tuesday in northern U.S. Midwest soy growing areas but no significant harm to soy likely and no concerns for frost or freeze over the next 10 days. [

CBOT-SOYOIL - October down 0.80 cent per lb at 33.24 cents. Spillover selling pressure from weak soybeans and meal/oil spreading.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slid 4.8 percent on Monday, hitting a two week low, as traders booked profits after an industry analyst over the weekend painted a short-term bearish picture of the market.

The benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange fell as much as 104 ringgit to 2,082 ringgit ($599.5) before settling down 83 ringgit at 2,103 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets extended recent losses on Monday in a market wary of weak U.S. economic data, while lower oil prices forced down big-cap energy and resource shares across the region.

Singapore <.FTSTI> lost more than 1 percent to its lowest in almost three weeks, while Malaysia <.KLSE> and Indonesia <.JKSE> slid to near-two-week lows, ending down 0.9 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.

Thailand <.SETI> and the Philippines <.PSI> each fell more than 1 percent to one-week lows, while Vietnam <.VNI>, Southeast Asia's best performer last week, inched down 0.1 percent.

FCPO Daily: Remains in weak momentum

Market momentum remains weak despite prices are trying to defend at 2100 mark. A breakout from the recent low at 2070 may provide more room to bias downside potential. While, upside resistance is pegged at 2190-2200.

CBOT Soyoil Daily: More room to bias downside potential

Market ended its consolidation phase following prices violated the the underline support at USD33.75-33.60. Thus, market may have more room to bias downside potential if downside support at USD33.23-33.00 not able to sustain. To the upside, resistance is pegged at USD35-35.70

DJI Daily: May challenge 10,000 mark

Market looks pretty supported well following a triple digit gains had helped to strengthen the positive momentum. Thus, we maintain the upside target at 10,000 levels. To the downside, support is still pegged at 9600 levels.

FKLI Daily: Bulls show little tiredness sign

Bulls have shown some early sign of tiredness after the long run. Thus, market may enter into consolidation phase with immediate downside support is looking at 1200 levels followed by 1190-1185. To the upside, resistance is adjusted to 1232-1240.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell for a third straight day on Friday on disappointing housing and durable goods data, while Research In Motion's lackluster results dented optimism about technology spending.

Economic reports showed that new orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell by their biggest margin in seven months, while August sales of new home fell short of Wall Street's expectations, raising questions about the strength of the recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 42.25 points, or 0.44 percent, to 9,665.19. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> dropped 6.40 points, or 0.61 percent, to 1,044.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> declined 16.69 points, or 0.79 percent, to 2,090.92.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended with modest gains in seesaw trading on Friday, supported by fresh tensions over Iran's nuclear program while demand worries amid high stockpiles and a set of mixed economic data weighed on sentiment.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude settled up 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $66.02 a barrel, trading a high of $67.09 down to $65.05, the lowest since July 31's intraday high of $64.96.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November up 6-1/2 cents at $9.26 a bushel. Rebounding from this week's sell-off largely linked to corn/soy spreading most of the week as spreads adjusted. Supported by strong cash markets as processors sharply hike spot bids to replenish crush supplies. Sell-off in wheat brought soybeans off early highs.

CBOT-SOYOIL - October down 0.05 cent at 34.04 cents a lb. Market closes lower amid pressure from gyrations in crude oil market.

FCPO-MUMBAI, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) futures in Malaysia may fall 13 percent to 1,900 ringgit per tonne but prices will rise next year as the El Nino weather event hits output, a top industry analyst told a conference on Sunday.

Prices were likely to rise to 2,400 ringgit per tonne next year, said Dorab Mistry, head of vegetable oil purchasing at India's Godrej International and a respected analyst.

On Friday, benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange settled at 2,186 Malaysian ringgit ($630), up 71 ringgit, halting two straight days of declines, and moving above the 200-day moving average of 2,141 ringgit.

Mistry said palm oil inventories in Malaysia would rise to more than 2 million tonnes by the end of November. "The situation reminds me of last year when Malaysian stocks peaked at 2.265 million tonnes at the end of November," he said.

Mistry maintained his forecasts for Indonesia's 2009 palm oil output at 21.5 million tonnes from about 20 million tonnes last year and Malaysian production at 17.5 million tonnes in 2009, compared with 17.75 million tonnes last year.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Friday on fears that authorities around the world might end stimulus efforts too soon, and big caps such as Bumi Resources and Astra International dropped.

World central banks have said they would scale back infusions of dollars into their banking systems, adding to unease triggered when the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would slow purchases of mortgage debt, a pillar of its efforts to support mortgage lending.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> slid 0.2 percent, after a 0.7 percent decline on Thursday, while Thailand <.SETI> inched down 0.96 percent and Malaysia <.KLSE> 0.06 percent. The Philippines <.PSI> lost 0.6 percent but Vietnam <.VNI> added 1.4 percent.

In Singapore, top losers were casino operator Genting Singapore , down 3.5 percent, Wilmar International , down 3.4 percent, and Singapore Telecom , 0.6 percent lower.

In Kuala Lumpur, financials led the losers, with CIMB down 0.7 percent, Maybank Bhd down 0.2 percent and AMMB Holdings Bhd off 0.2 percent.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses on pre-weekend covering.

Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses on pre-weekend covering. Benchmark Dec09 initially hit intra day low of 2106 after opened RM6 lower at 2109 but then started to climb steadily through out most of the sessions. The last wave of aggressive short-covering activities emerged in late trading led CPO prices to shoot up to intra day high of 2187 before it settled RM71 higher at 2186. Market was actually in a technical rebound mode today as it had been temporary oversold in yesterday sold-down. Trading volume was low with only 12,190 contracts changed hands as traders waiting for fresh leads from the Global Vege Oil Conference held this weekend at India. Meanwhile, Dalian market will be off next week for China’s Holiday.

FCPO Weekly: 2000 mark defended well

Market continue to defend at 2000 mark and rebounded for a good closing. However, weekly technical landscape remains in weak mode. As for now, immediate downside support is looking at 2060-2000 followed by 1980-1960. To the upside, resistance is pegged at 2250-2300 followed by 2330-2350.

CBOT Soyoil Weekly: still in Consolidation phase

Correction mode is still taking place. Therefore, we maintain the downside support at USD33.23 followed by 32.25-32.14. To the upside, resistance is pegged at USD37-37.50

NYMEX Crude Weekly: Sideways to lower

Market violated the immediate support at USD65 had dampened the overall technical landscape. Market momentum was weaken further and looks may move sideways to bias downside potential in near term. As for now, we are looking for the upside resistance at USD73-75. While, downside support is adjusted to USD62.70-58.30.

DJI Weekly Inching up slowly

Market is inching up slowly despite shy away after tested 9,900 levels. Immediate technical outlook looks positive. Thus, we maintain our upside target at 10,000 levels. To the downside, support is maintain at 9600-9400 levels.

SSE Weekly: Capped in range trading

Market looks may continue to cap in range trading bias sideways to lower in near term market. Immediate support is maintain at 2761 followed by 2640. To the upside, resistance is pegged at 3070 followed by 3170-3190.

FKLI Weekly: Bulls run likely to continue

We stick to our bullish view towards the near term market as no sign of tiredness was shown after the recent bulls run. Thus, we maintain the upside resistance at 1230-1240 followed by 1270-1280. Downside support is pegged at 1200 followed by 1190-1180.