Monday, May 14, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 11 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. banks slumped on Friday after JPMorgan said it lost billions of dollars on bad trades, but the overall market ended only modestly lower, thanks to gains in technology shares.

JPMorgan Chase & Co , the largest U.S. bank by assets, dropped 9.3 percent on record high volume after it disclosed losses on derivatives trades. The news sparked fears that the problems could reverberate through the banking sector. The KBW bank index <.BKX> fell 1.2 percent.

"JPMorgan will become a political issue. This will increase regulations on banks, and the overhang on large banks will last for awhile," said Tim Ghriskey, who oversees about $2 billion as chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

Wall Street ended lower for the second week in a row, as concerns about Europe's fiscal health resurfaced as political turmoil in Greece again sparked worry that it could exit the euro and Spain's ailing banks spurred fears the country could need a bailout, while some U.S. economic data raised questions about growth.

But a survey released on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment rose to a more than four-year high in early May as Americans remained upbeat about the job market. The survey was a welcome sign amid worries that the economic recovery may be slowing down.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 34.44 points, or 0.27 percent, at 12,820.60. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 4.60 points, or 0.34 percent, at 1,353.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 0.18 points, or 0.01 percent, at 2,933.82.

For the week, the Dow fell 1.7 percent, the S&P fell 1.1 percent, and the Nasdaq was off 0.8 percent.

"The trader types see that we came down to that 1,340 area on the S&P 500, started to bounce, started to see some buying, some bottom fishing, then you got that consumer sentiment number, and that was compelling enough," he said.

The disclosure by JPMorgan came as shocking news by a bank viewed as a strong risk manager.

JPMorgan estimates the business unit involved in the trading loss will lose $800 million in the current quarter, excluding private equity results and litigation expenses. The bank had previously expected the unit to post a profit of about $200 million.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive, cautioned that losses could grow by another $1 billion, another hurdle for a sector already besieged by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and fears of slowing growth globally. [ID:nL1E8GALF5]

The news weighed on bank shares as investors feared both a greater risk of more regulation and the potential for more such losses at other banks. The stocks, however, came off their lows of the morning.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell nearly 1 percent on Friday as weaker industrial growth in China and persistent euro zone worries clouded the oil demand outlook.

A four-year-high reading in U.S. consumer confidence failed to halt the day's selling, causing crude futures to fall for a second straight week, racking up the biggest two-week percentage loss since the end of September last year. For the report on cosumer confidence, see [ID:nL1E8GA890]

A forecast for a small rise in oil demand caused little stir in the oil markets

The International Energy Agency said global oil demand will remain little changed this year. It forecast that demand will edge up 20,000 barrels per day from its previous monthly forecast, to 790,000 bpd. [IEA/M]

Meanwhile, a weekly report from the U.S. futures market regulator showed the biggest ever cuts in net U.S. crude oil long positions by big traders, reflecting the recent steep sell-off that has sent prices sharply lower. [ID:nL1E8SB85I]

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said that hedge funds and other large speculative investors slashed their positions in NYMEX crude oil and options in the week to May 8 by 81,674 contracts to 153,725 in the period.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude settled 95 cents lower at $96.13 a barrel.

* For the week, front-month crude fell $2.36 or 2.4 percent, extending losses to a second straight week. In those two weeks, U.S. front-month crude dropped $8.80, or 8.4 percent, the biggest two-week percentage loss since Sept. 30, 2011.

* BP has made the first offer to sell crude oil in the U.S. Gulf Coast from the glutted Cushing, Oklahoma, trading hub via the reverseed Seaway pipeline, due to start next week, raising hope for stronger prices for Canadian and U.S. crudes, traders and brokers said. [ID:nL1E8GBRAN]

* Enbridge Inc Canada's No. 2 pipeline company, plans to spend $1.3 billion doubling the capacity of its Line 6B in Michingan and Indiana as reffiners raise demand for inexpensive Canadian crude. [ID:nL1E8SB4NZ]

* China's implied oil deamnd dropped to a six-month low in April and posted its first yearly decline in at last the last three years due to a sputtering economy and high crude prices. [ID:nL4E8GB4ZX]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade plunged 3.4 percent, their biggest daily slide in 7-1/2 months, on long liquidation and risk aversion amid concerns about the health of the global economy, traders said.

* Benchmark July soybeans broke below its 40-day moving average, erasing strong gains notched a day earlier after a bullish government forecast for U.S. soy ending stocks.

* For the week, CBOT soybeans unofficially fell 4.8 percent, the second straight weekly drop and the biggest since late November.

* Commodity sector under pressure as Greece appeared unable to form a government and Chinese data came in unexpectedly weak, fuelling fears of a global economic slowdown. [MKTS/GLOB]

* Markets also rattled by an unexpected $2 billion trading loss at Wall Street giant JP Morgan , which pushed jittery investors away from risky assets. [ID:nL5E8GB6XO]

* Funds held a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans in the latest CFTC reporting week, leaving the market open to bouts of long liquidation.

* Favorable U.S. crop weather lent pressure, supporting prospects for large U.S. crops.

* USDA confirmed sales of 139,500 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2011/12 delivery. [ID:nL1E8GBK7F]

* Workers at one of Argentina's biggest grains ports lifted a strike and agreed to respect a Labor Ministry order for talks to resolve the pay dispute, union and industry sources said. [ID:nL1E8GBRK6]

* Ahead of NOPA's April U.S. soy crush data due out Monday, the average analyst estimate was 134.8 million bushels, compared with NOPA's March figure of 140.534 million bu. Analyst estimates for April ranged from 128.5 million to 144 million bushels. [ID:nL1E8GBX1W]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to a 9-week low on Friday before ending more than 2 percent lower as political uncertainty in the euro zone and weak industrial production data in China weighed on the demand outlook for the edible oil.

China's industrial production in April grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years, which along with poor trade numbers on Thursday, suggest the world's No. 2 economy continues to slow down after a weak first-quarter performance. [ID:nL4E2GB0UT]

A gloomy global economic outlook, together with slowing exports in Malaysia indicated by cargo surveyor data, sent palm oil futures down 2.5 percent this week.

"First, refining margins are negative and demand is anaemic," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The macro uncertainty over in Europe also weighed on the market plus technical indicators are bearish after having failed repeatedly to break key resistance levels."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 2.2 percent to close at 3,275 ringgit ($1,067) per tonne. Prices earlier touched a low of 3,265 ringgit, the weakest since March 8.

Traded volumes stood at 30,413 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Lower demand from major food buyers China and India contributed to the fall in shipments, while the slowing global economic growth is also a concern.

But a low global stocks of oilseeds, suggesting a tightening supply of the raw materials for competing edible oils, remains a bullish factor for palm oil.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast record exports next season for soybeans, shrinking U.S. stocks to the lowest in four years. [ID:nL4E8GB2FD]

On the local front, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, also reported April stock levels at a one-year low.

Malaysia's April palm oil stock level fell 5.4 percent to 1.85 million tonnes from a month ago, which some analysts said was at the lower range of the consensus' expectation. [GRA/]

"It was 3 percent below our estimate of 1.9 million tonnes as the tree stress effect had caused a deeper production drop than expected," Alan Lim, an analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, said in a research report.

"On the overall, the sustained drop in the stocks level below 2 million tonnes is positive for CPO prices," he said, referring to crude palm oil.

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, May 11 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Friday on continued euro zone political turmoil and weak economic data from China that led investors to sell commodity-related shares.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> was down 0.7 percent, bringing its weekly loss to 3.6 percent.

Thailand's benchmark SET index <.SETI> ended a tad higher, recouping early losses as investors bought beaten down big caps after the sell off in the previous two sessions that wiped more than 3 percent off the index.

Among actively traded, Singapore's Wilmar International Ltd , the world's largest listed palm oil firm, fell 3 percent, extending Thursday's losses due to weak first quarter earnings.

In Bangkok, Banpu Pcl fell 2.6 percent to a seven-month low after the top coal miner reported a 70 percent fall in quarterly net profit.

Friday, May 11, 2012

RTRS- US sees surge in corn stocks, fewer soybeans

WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) - A record U.S. corn crop this fall will end two years of nail-biting tight supplies, the government predicted on Thursday, while its forecasts for lower-than-expected global stocks of wheat and soybeans may keep food prices high.

The U.S. Agriculture Department's first estimates for this year's harvest and next year's demand showed that domestic corn stocks will surge from a near record low this year to a seven-year high by September 2013, aided by expected record yields this year as farmers sprinted to plant an early crop.

USDA had less bountiful outlooks for other supplies, with domestic soybean inventories seen falling to 145 million bushels for the 2012/13 year from 210 million this year, with a stocks-to-use ratio "at a historically low 4.4 percent."

The 145 million is slightly more than a two-week supply. Analysts had forecast 164 million bushels.

Futures prices soared 1.9 percent for new-crop soybeans, the largest gain in 5-1/2 weeks at the Chicago Board of Trade. New-crop corn, for delivery in December, fell by 1.4 percent to $5.09-3/4 a bushel, the lowest price since March 2011.

The report threatens to extend a cycle of volatile prices, with a shortage of one crop in one year giving way to a shortage of another in the next. Food prices spiked in 2008 and have remained high and volatile since then because of the razor-thin stocks and huge demand globally, especially from a hungry China.

Although soybean prices have led the complex this year, some analysts were still betting that corn -- the grain that's been in greatest deficit -- would set the longer-term tone.

"The upshot is that corn is the locomotive that pulls the grain train, and that engine is headed south," said Charlie Sernatinger, analyst with ABN AMRO.

RTRS- ARGENTINE 2011/12 SOY HARVEST SEEN AT 40.9 MLN T VS 43.1 MLN T MONTH AGO - ROSARIO GRAINS EXCHANGE

BUENOS AIRES, May 10 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2011/12 soy output was expected to fall to 40.9 million tonnes, down from last month's estimate for 43.1 million tonnes due to poor yields caused by a drought, Rosario grains exchange said on Thursday.

It also cut its outlook for 2011/12 corn production to 19.0 million tonnes from 19.8 million tonnes in April.

RTRS- Brazil raises soy crop view after aggressive cuts

SAO PAULO, May 10 (Reuters) - The soybean forecast from Brazil's agriculture ministry on Thursday bounced back by more than a million tonnes, after the government overshot in April when it slashed more than 3 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of the drought parched crop.

The ministry's crop supply agency Conab said in its eighth forecast of Brazil's grain output that the 2011/12 (September-October) soybean crop would reach 66.7 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from the agency's April estimate of 65.6 million tonnes.

The April estimate had be cut by more than 3 million tonnes from March. [ID:nL2E8FA29Q] Brazil harvested a record 75.3 million tonnes in 2010/11.

"I was fearful of this last month," said agricultural consultant Kory Melby based in Goias. "They dropped it far too fast."

Conab did not give details on why they decided to raise their forecast after dropping it sharply in past months.

Soy futures prices have firmed since December, as markets fear dwindling stocks and strong demand for the important source of protein from China could put pressure on food prices and trigger civil unrest.

Conab said Brazil should export 31.1 million tonnes of soybean, down from the 32.99 million tonnes last year.
Drought that started in November in Brazil's southern grain states, common under La Nina weather patterns, erased over 10 million tonnes from the current crop's potential, considering the expanded area planted with soy this season.

Area planted expanded 3.5 percent from last season to a record 25 million hectares (61.8 million acres), Conab said. But average yields were a dismal 2.665 tonnes a hectare, the lowest in six years.

The southern states took the brunt of the drought. No. 3 soy growing state, Rio Grande do Sul, will put out a dismal 6.5 million tonnes, down 44 percent from the record 11.6 million last season. It is one of the last major states to harvest and it is days away from finishing.

No. 2 soy state Parana harvested 10.8 million tonnes, down 30 percent from the record 15.4 million last season.

Partially offsetting the losses in the south, No. 1 soy state Mato Grosso raised output by 6 percent to a record 21.7 million tonnes and No. 4 producer Goias rose 3.4 percent to 8.5 million tonnes, Conab data showed. The two center-west states have been done harvesting for more than a month.

RTRS- China to release 2.5 mln T state soy reserves in northeast

BEIJING, May 10 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy importer, will offer 2.5 million tonnes of soybeans to crushers from state reserves, mainly in inland provinces in the northeast, to cut government stocks before the new harvest, industry sources said on Thursday.

Sources expected the release, which will start late May, to have only a minor impact on imports because soy plants in the country's northeast use only domestic soybeans for crushing.

"The release takes place mainly in the northeast provinces, we don't expect any major impact to crushers south of the area which use imported soy," said one industry source.

The amount of soy from 2008-2010 harvests would be offered at regular auctions at prices of 3,700-3,850 yuan ($590-$610) per tonne, lower than the 4,250 yuan per tonne for imports offered at major ports in the north.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

China Jan-April soy imports up 22.3 pct on year. [ID:nL4E8GA1QA]

China soy imports graphic: http://link.reuters.com/xuh28s

China trade suite: http://link.reuters.com/fut96s

Expensive CBOT prices to boost China state soy sales [ID:nL4E8G34JK]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Beijing last year released about the same volume of state reserves at discounted prices to some major crushers, the release triggered cancellations of a large number of imported cargoes.

"The market has been expecting this for a while. We don't think there would be any cancellations as happened last year. Crushers are still looking for cargoes and unlike last year, when they overbooked at the time," said one senior soy trader.

Crushers have been cautious and slowed down their purchases for shipment after July as current Chicago Board of Trade prices <0#S:> would give negative crushing margins, traders said.

But the prices are attractive to crushers in the northeast, where domestic soy was priced at about 4,100 yuan per tonne.

Some crushers in northern provinces of Shandong and Hebei have since late April increased purchases from the regular state reserves, although the volume was very small - 68,328 tonnes this week.[ID:nL4E8G34JK]

The sources said that because the reserve stocks were aging, the quality of the soybeans was deteriorating.

($1 = 6.3097 yuan)

RTRS- Malaysia's April palm oil stocks down 5.4 pct-MPOB

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - - Malaysia's April palm oil stocks fell 5.4

percent to 1,848,368 tonnes from a revised 1,954,145 tonnes in March, industry

regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on Thursday.

April's fall was higher than market expectations that stocks in the world's

No.2 palm oil producer likely dropped 7 percent to 1.82 million tonnes.

[PALM/POLL]

The following is a breakdown of Malaysian Palm Oil Board figures and Reuters

estimates for April:

(volumes in tonnes)

April 2012 April poll April 2011 March 2012

Output 1,272,626 1,285,000 1,306,228 1,211,257

Stocks 1,848,368 1,823,000 1,670,792 1,954,145

Exports 1,331,490 1,400,000 1,349,739 1,329,640

Imports* 40,616 100,000 n/a 27,908

* Refers to Malaysian imports of mostly Indonesian crude palm oil

RTRS- India's April refined palm oil imports seen lower

NEW DELHI, May 10 (Reuters) - India's refined palm oil imports are likely to have fallen in April from March as prices rose and buyers had built up plenty of stock, traders surveyed by Reuters said.

Compared with a year ago, however, imports of the refined product are forecast to have risen a whopping 414 percent after tax changes by exporter Indonesia made crude palm oil less attractive.

The Solvent Extractors Association of India, a Mumbai-based trade body, is set to issue vegetable oil import data on Friday at a meeting that starts at 1230 pm local time.

India, the world's largest vegetable oil importer, buys mainly palm oils from Indonesia and Malaysia, and its demand can affect prices.

Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, altered taxes in October 2011 to make exports of refined oil more attractive than those of crude palm oil to promote its downstream industry.

Since November, India's refined palm oil imports have risen by 78.3 percent to 821,960 tonnes through to March.

Indian refiners' calls for retaliatory action from the government to the Indonesian move, which has reined in domestic refining and put many plants on the verge of closure, have so far proved fruitless as food inflation is high. [ID:nL4E8E51LY]

Traders' forecasts for imports of refined palm oil in April ranged between 100,000 and 175,000 tonnes, with the average at 134,000 tonnes, down 28.3 percent from March.

They also said imported refined palm oils were $40-45 per tonne costlier in April than March.

"High prices dented imports of refined palm oil," said Pradip Desai, a Mumbai-based trader.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.4 percent to close at 3,349 ringgit ($1,093) per tonne on Thursday. The market has gained nearly 5.5 percent so far this year. [ID:nL4E8GA3YY]

Imported refined palm oil was quoted at around $1,160 per tonne on a cost and freight basis on India's west coast.

About half of India's 15 million to 16 million tonnes per year of edible oils demand is met via imports. It also buys small quantities of soyoil from Argentina and Brazil.

Traders said higher imports of the refined palm oil over the average of 90,000-100,000 tonnes in 2011 would continue as long as the government did not introduce protective measures.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell sharply on Thursday evening as JPMorgan Chase & Co stunned investors with news that its chief investment office had incurred "significant mark-to-market losses" that it said could "easily get worse."

JPMorgan's stock fell nearly 7 percent to $38.05 in after-hours trading and dragged down shares across the entire banking sector. Its executives called an extraordinary conference call with analysts at 5 p.m. EDT where Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said "egregious" mistakes had been made.

The news from JPMorgan comes at a difficult juncture for the stock market as investors wrestle with heightened concerns about Europe's debt crisis and signs are emerging that the U.S. economic recovery may be starting to slow.

S&P 500 futures fell 11.6 points and were below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration of the contract. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 16.75 points.

If there is nothing to reassure investors between now and the start of trade on Friday the weakness in likely to spill over into the cash market.

In a positive development, euro-zone officials said the bloc's countries are prepared to keep financing Greece until the country forms a new government. [ID:nB5E8FA01P]

The Dow's modest rise broke a six-day losing streak for the blue-chip average. But the S&P 500 could not hold enough gains to close above its April low. Still, the S&P has rebounded after falling to a two-month low near 1,340 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 19.98 points, or 0.16 percent, to close at 12,855.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 3.41 points, or 0.25 percent, to end at 1,357.99. But the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 1.07 points, or 0.04 percent, to close at 2,933.64.

The latest uncertainty surrounding Greece and the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis helped spark a drop in the S&P 500 in five of the past seven sessions, sending the benchmark index down 4 percent. While the region's difficulties persisted with the political gridlock in Greece, investors used the market's declines as a buying opportunity.

The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits fell last week, but from an upwardly revised figure from the previous week. The report follows last month's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed weak employment growth in April. [ID:nL1E8GA1I4]

Signs of softness in the U.S. economy recently have led some investors to err on the side of caution and cut back on sectors exposed to the vicissitudes of the economic cycle.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged up on Thursday, snapping a string of six lower settlements, as supportive labor and trade data from the United States countered disappointing Chinese trade data and higher OPEC production.

Investors hoped for better demand for petroleum after news that U.S. initial jobless claims edged down last week. The data eased concerns about a deteriorating labor market, though the drop was from a revised higher level.[ID:nL1E8GA1I4]

The four-week moving average, considered a better measure of labor market trends, also fell.

A separate report showed the U.S. trade deficit widened in March. Exports hit a record high and imports rose, indicating firming underlying demand.

Brent crude slipped and U.S. crude gains were limited by the unsettled Greek political situation and weak Chinese trade data.

No. 2 oil consumer China saw its exports and imports in April grow at a far slower rate than forecast. [ID:nEAP307401]

Greek political parties engaged in a last-gasp attempt to form a government and avoid new elections on Thursday after recent elections plunged the debt-ridden country into crisis.

The deadlock prompted a stream of warnings by European leaders that Greece would be thrown out of the euro if it did not stick to the terms of the bailout.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude rose 27 cents, or 0.28 percent, to settle at $97.08 a barrel, having traded from $96.08, below the 200-day moving average of $96.28, and reaching $97.69.

* OPEC said its production rose in April to 31.62 million barrels per day (bpd) as Iraq and Libya ramped up. OPEC in December set its official supply target at 30 million bpd. [ID:nL5E8GA5O7]

* Saudi Arabia will supply crude oil to its customers in June at the same volume as May. [ID:nL4E8GA35D]

* Iran cut its official selling prices for June-loading crude to Asia from May as it seeks to encourage Asian buyers, but raised prices to Europe where buyers have mostly retreated, trading sources said. [ID:nL4E8GA1RD]

CBOT SOYEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose after forecasts for U.S. soybean ending stocks from the U.S. Department of Agriculture came in below trade expectations, traders said.

* Soymeal posted the biggest advances in the soy complex, gaining relative to soyoil on meal/oil spreads.

* USDA lowered its forecast of U.S. 2011/12 soybean ending stocks to 210 million bushels, down from 250 million in April and below the average trade estimate of 210 million.

* USDA projected 2012/13 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 145 million bushels, below the average trade estimate of 164 million bushels.

* USDA cut its forecast of 2011/12 soybean production in Brazil to 65 million tonnes, from 66 million in April, and cut its estimate for Argentina's crop to 42.5 million tonnes, from 45 million in April.

* The Rosario grains exchange lowered its estimate of Argentina's 2011/12 soybean crop to 40.9 million tonnes, from 43.1 million last month, due to drought. [ID:nE6E7NC01Z]

* However, Brazil's agriculture ministry raised its projection for the country's soy crop to 66.7 million tonnes, from an April estimate of 65.6 million. [ID:nL1E8GA136]

* USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.827 million tonnes (old and new crop years combined), above trade expectations for 1.2 million to 1.4 million tonnes.

* USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 235,500 tonnes, above trade expectations, and weekly soyoil sales at 30,100 tonnes, below expectations.

* China will offer 2.5 million tonnes of soybeans to crushers from state reserves, mainly in inland provinces in the northeast, to cut government stocks before the new harvest, industry sources said. [ID:nL4E8GA7J5]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Thursday, as traders bet on lower palm oil stocks, although gains were capped by lingering euro zone fears and slower exports of the edible oil this month.

The market, which has gained nearly 5.5 percent so far this year, drew support from an industry report that showed palm oil stocks in No.2 producer Malaysia fell to a one-year low.

But trading was volatile this week after polls in France and Greece threatened to put euro zone bailout programme at risk, while the latest Chinese trade data showed signs that the world's No.2 economy could be slowing down. [ID:nEAP307401]

There could be some price declines in the days to come after cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reported a 14.2 percent drop in May 1-10 Malaysian palm oil exports compared to a month ago, suggesting the slowing economy may be curbing demand.

"The market is looking at the MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) report today, market is a little bit positive on that," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Because of external factors such as emerging issues in Europe, the market has been very uncertain. The USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) report will add to the volatility too, market should be trading in the 3,300-3,400 ringgit range for the next two days."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.4 percent to close at 3,349 ringgit ($1,093) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 27,230 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots as volumes picked up after the midday break.

Malaysia's April palm oil stocks fell 5.4 percent to 1.85 million tonnes from a month ago, said industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board after the midday break. [ID:nL4E8GA2VA]

While that puts stock level slightly higher than the expected 1.82 million tonnes, it is still at a one-year low and likely to push palm oil prices higher. [PALM/POLL]

Malaysian palm oil exports for May 1-10 fell by 6 percent compared to a month ago, said another cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, reflecting lower demand from major food buyer China and India.

Market players are watching the monthly planting report for soybeans that will be issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture later on Thursday. A smaller soybean crop for crushing into competing soybean oil will support palm oil prices.

Singapore's Wilmar International Ltd , the world's largest listed palm oil firm, posted a surprise 34 percent drop in quarterly earnings on Thursday, hurt by losses at its largely China-based oilseeds and grains business. [ID:nL4E8G9ABV]

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, May 10 (Reuters) - Thai shares fell to three-week lows while Philippine stocks hit their lowest in almost two weeks on Thursday, led down by index heavyweights amid concerns over debt problems in Europe.

Most other Southeast Asian stock markets recouped early losses.

Thailand's main SET index <.SETI> fell 1.38 percent, extending its loss for a second day to 1,190.65, the lowest close since April 23. The Philippine index <.PSI> ended down 0.4 percent at 5,192.10, the lowest close since April 30.

Indonesia saw outflows for three consecutive sessions to Wednesday for a combined $129 million and Thailand posted $76 million in outflows on Wednesday, after taking in $62 million in inflows in past two sessions, Thomson Reuters data showed.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell for the fifth day in six on Wednesday as investors kept their focus on the turmoil in Europe, but news that Greece will receive its latest debt bailout payment helped cut losses late in the session.

In the afternoon the Nasdaq briefly turned positive and the S&P rose to break-even after news that Greece will get 5.2 billion euros in emergency aid. [ID:nB5E8FA01M]

The turmoil in Europe has driven Wall Street's slide and more investors were hedging against potential further losses. The Dow fell for a sixth straight day and the S&P touched a two-month low before cutting losses.

"It's a very difficult market to trade in. I'm advising my clients to just hedge out all the way into July because we are going to see some heightened volatility like today for awhile," said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.

The yield on the 10-year Spanish bond climbed above 6 percent, seen as a troublesome level among investors, after Spain said it will demand banks set aside another 35 billion euros ($45 billion) against loans to the ailing building sector. Huge bank losses have raised fears that the country may need an international bailout. [ID:nL5E8G8H7H]

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> finished down 97.03 points, or 0.75 percent, at 12,835.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 9.14 points, or 0.67 percent, at 1,354.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 11.56 points, or 0.39 percent, at 2,934.71.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged down on Wednesday in choppy trading on the way to a sixth straight lower close, ending well above its intraday low as falling fuel stocks and technical support at the 200-day moving average countered pressure from rising crude oil stockpiles.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose 3.65 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report, more than analyst expectations. [EIA/S]

But the inventory boost in the EIA data was much less than rise of 7.8 million barrels reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. [API/S]

Crude stocks were expected to have risen 2 million barrels, with gasoline seen down 100,000 barrels and distillate stocks were expected to be up 100,000 barrels.

Supportive to crude futures was a decision by the board of the European Financial Stability Facility on Wednesday to make a payment of 5.2 billion euros in emergency aid to Greece, overcoming opposition from some euro zone member states. [ID:nL5E8G9D4G]

The post-election turmoil in Greece, with politicians still unable to form a coalition government on Wednesday, and France's choice of a new president, had roiled markets and pressured crude prices this week.

U.S. crude slipped below its 200-day moving average of $96.29 intraday , but recovered to settle well above that level.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell 20 cents, or 0.21 percent, to settle at $96.81 a barrel, having traded from $95.17 to $97.39.

* Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said there is a surplus of oil in the market. "There is a surplus oil in the market. There is surplus supply," he said in brief comments to reporters. [ID:nT9E8FA00E]

* Iran has authorized private Iranian exporters to sell up to 20 percent of its crude exports in a move intended to help skirt international sanctions, the head of the traders' union said. [ID:nL5E8G957K]

* Greece moved closer to a second snap election when the head of the biggest party launched a new attack on leftist Alexis Tsipras, saying his plans for a new government would push the country out of the euro zone. [ID:nL5E8G90JC]

* China will cut gasoline and diesel prices by about 3 percent from Thursday in response to declines in crude oil prices, although the moderate cut is expected to be unlikely to be sufficient to stimulate demand much. [ID:nL4E8G97GY]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a third day on fund long liquidation ahead of a monthly U.S. government crop report, traders said.

* Funds hold a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market vulnerable to long liquidation.

* Soybeans also influenced by broad risk-aversion trade in commodities as the dollar firmed on concern about political disarray in Greece and the euro zone debt crisis. The Thomson Reuters CRB index <.CRB> of 19 commodities was down 0.15 percent by the CBOT close but pared losses after hitting a seven-month low.

* Soymeal and soyoil followed soybeans lower. Soyoil extended its losing streak to 10 straight sessions.

* Trade expects USDA in its monthly supply/demand report on Thursday to show tightening U.S. and global soy stocks for 2011/12 along with smaller South American harvests, but global stocks may rebound in 2012/13. [ID:nL1E8G7HEY]

* CBOT reported 337 deliveries against the May soybean contract, with the Term house account stopping 290 lots. CBOT reported no soymeal deliveries and 641 soyoil deliveries.

* Bearish chart signals add pressure in soybeans. Following a key reversal to the downside last week, benchmark July soybeans broke below a key trendline on Tuesday, rupturing channel support that has been growing since early 2012. [ID:nL1E8G8E2W]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Wednesday as heightened political risk in Europe raised concerns about demand and deterred traders who remained sidelined ahead of a slew of industry data due to be released the following day.

Election results in France and Greece that threatened to put euro zone austerity measures in jeopardy limited buying interest in palm oil futures, cutting gains this year to 5 percent.

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will issue official stocks and output numbers for April on Thursday, which market players expect to be lower than the month before.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.5 percent to close at 3,335 ringgit ($1,087) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 23,210 lots of 25 tonnes each, thinner than the usual 25,000 lots, as investors were looking for further cues to enter the market.

"Currently it's more like a positioning ahead of the MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) data and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) report," said Ker Chung Yang, an analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"The market is moving according to the dynamics in the macroeconomics. So after what happened in France and Greece, there are still concerns that the measures laid out by the European Union will be overturned."

Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance will issue export numbers for the first 10 days of May on Thursday. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]

Exports jumped by almost 10 percent in April on strong demand from major buyers China, India and Europe. Traders will be monitoring demand trends from major food buyers for signs on restocking.

On the supply front, April stocks should continue a downtrend and stay below the psychological 2-million-tonne mark as exports ate into stocks, a Reuters median survey showed on Monday. [ID:nL4E8G79FP]

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will also be releasing its monthly planting report for soybeans on Thursday. A smaller soybean crop for crushing into competing soybean oil will be supportive for palm oil prices.

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, May 9 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks fell on Wednesday as Asian investors continued to worry over political disarray in Greece and the euro zone's debt problems.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> fell 1.06 percent to a three-month low while Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> dropped 1.24 percent to its lowest in a month.

Across the region, commodities-related shares came under selling pressure, with market players turning cautious on the prospect of their earnings.

Jakarta-based Bahana Securities has cut its 2012 target for Jakarta's Composite Index to 4,500 from 4,600, reflecting worse than expected first quarter earnings and falling commodities prices, Harry Su, head of research said. The index closed at 4,129.06 on Wednesday.

"Commodities prices have been falling and we expect things to actually become worse in the second quarter. For this commodities players, we're expecting to be worse for the second quarter results," he said.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled to the lowest level in two months on Tuesday as new questions emerged over Europe's ability to fend off a deeper crisis in the debt-stricken region.

The S&P 500 fell through April lows, which traders had seen as technical support, and hit bottoms from early March. The move was part of broad run to safety. Yields on German debt hit a record low while oil fell for a fifth straight day.[MKTS/GLOB]

"For the past six weeks or so, what's been really holding us is the earnings. Now that big earnings are out, the focus is back to Europe, at least in the short-term," said Randy Warren, chief investment officer at Warren Financial Service & Associates Inc in Exton, Pennsylvania.

"A break below the recent trading range suggest that if we get a pullback, we could go below our 200-day moving average of about 1,275 which is down about 8-10 percent from here."

Elections in France and Greece appeared to herald a new era of opposition to government austerity and added to concern about economic growth in the United States and China.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 136.16 points, or 1.05 percent, at 12,872.37. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 13.15 points, or 0.96 percent, at 1,356.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 28.40 points, or 0.96 percent, at 2,929.36.

Market losses mirrored trading in Europe where the FTSEurofirst <.FTEU3> closed down 1.7 percent. French and UK stocks as measured by the CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 turned negative for the year.

Leftist leader Alexis Tsipras began efforts to form a Greek government by renouncing the terms of an international bailout and threatening to nationalize banks. [ID:nL5E8G80YO]

Meanwhile, the threat of a Franco-German split over policies to tackle the region's debt crisis loomed after anti-austerity Socialist Francois Hollande was elected French president. [ID:nL5E8G7EA3]

"This is dragging the situation out even longer and makes it less likely that the progress that has already been made will continue," said Mark Foster, who helps manage $500 million at Kirr Marbach & Co in Columbus, Indiana.

While Foster said the weakness has created some bargains, "a lot of major U.S. companies have a lot of exposure to Europe and we may continue seeing that weakness show up here."

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell for the fifth straight day on Tuesday as Europe's political and economic troubles deepened on post-election uncertainty in Greece and worries about growing U.S. stockpiles persisted, both raising more concerns about oil demand.

Front-month U.S., crude ended at its lowest level since February and posted its biggest five-day loss since October, with no respite in sight as euro zone debt troubles continue and U.S. weekly inventory data was forecast to show the sixth straight week of increases in crude oil stockpiles.

Greece sank deeper into crisis when the Leftist candidate for prime minister set conditions for a new coalition which the biggest party said would destroy the country. [ID:nL5E8G80YO]

Adding to Greece's troubles, The European Central Bank will not renegotiate the nation's bailout package and there are no alternatives to sticking with it if it wants to stay in the euro zone, ECB Executive Boarde member Joerg Asmussesn was quoted as saying. [ID:nL5E8G7DE2]

In post-settlement trading, U.S. crude extended losses after the industry group American Petroleum Institute said that domestic crude stocks jumped 7.8 million barrels in the week to May 4, nearly four times the forecast for a 2.0 million increase in a Reuters poll of analysts. [API/S] [EIA/S]

Distillate stocks fell 2.7 million barrels, countering the forecast for a 100,000 barrel rise and gasoline stocks plunged 5.0 million barrels, leaving in the dust expectations for a 100,000 barrel decline.

Refinery utilization rose 1.1 percentage points, the API said, far more than the forecast for a 0.3 percentage point increase.

Traders await the weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, considered more comprehensive than the API's, on Wednesday morning for a further guidance of fundamentals.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for June delivery settled at $97.01 a barrel, falling 93 cents, or 0.95 percent, the lowest front-month settlement since Feb. 6.

* In five days, front-month crude tumbled $9.15, or 8.62 percent, the biggest five-day loss for U.S. front-month crude since Oct. 4, 2011, when prices fell 10.4 percent, according to Reuters data.

* Oil production from non-OPEC nations will average 52.6 million barrels per day this year, 100,000 bpd lower from the DOE's previous forecast. U.S. oil production will average 6.2 million bpd this year, 500,000 bpd higher from last year, the DOE also said. [ID:nL1E8G89LI]

* Tankers carrying Alaska North Slope oil to the U.S. West Coast are returning with some crude still on board because refinery shutdowns have cut demand, a BP Plc spokesman said. [ID:nL1E8G86E3]

* Iran is accepting payments in yuan for some of the crude oil it supplies to China, the Iranian ambassador the United Arab Emirates said. [ID:nL5E8G84OM]

* India's crude oil imports from Iran declined by about 34 percent in April compared with March, deeper than expected and the first sign of New Delhi implementing cuts in supplies from the sanctions-hit Islamic republic. [ID:nD8E8ET01O]

* Sudan's crude oil production at the Heglig oilfield will increase to 80,0000 barrels per day, from a current capacity of about 55,0000 bpd, and exploration deals for six blocks will be signed soon as it moves to make up for a big loss in oil exports, its oil minister said. [ID: nL5E8G8BAI]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a second straight session on fund long liquidation, with spillover weakness from U.S. crude oil futures and equity markets adding pressure, traders said.

* July soymeal fell more than 2 percent, its biggest decline in three months, while July soyoil fell 0.5 percent.

* Funds held a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans as of May 1, the latest weekly U.S. CFTC data showed, leaving the market vulnerable to periodic long liquidation, particularly ahead of USDA's May 10 supply/demand report.

* Traders unwinding long soy/short corn spreads as well as long old crop/short new crop soybean bull-spreads.

* Market still under pressure from last week's key reversal to the downside in most-active July soybeans .

* China sold 68,328 tonnes of soy from state reserves at a regular auction on Tuesday, the largest volume since late 2010, as lower state prices prompted crushers to stock up on the oilseed. [ID:nL4E8G816A]

* USDA confirmed sales of 225,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, including 60,000 for delivery in 2011/12 and 165,000 for 2012/13. USDA also confirmed sales of 40,000 tonnes of soybean oil to unknown destinations for 2012/13. [ID:nW1E8EM018]

* Oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soybean crop to 41.0 million tonnes, down 1.5 million from its previous forecast because of drought damage. [ID:nL5E8G85U2]

* Taiwan's BSPA bought a total of 120,000 tonnes Brazilian soybeans in two tenders, European traders said. [ID:nL5E8G862F]

* Favorable U.S. crop weather adds pressure. USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 24 percent planted, up from 12 percent a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 11 percent. [US/SOY]

* Workers at leading grains export ports in Argentina will go on strike on Thursday and blockade soy-crushing plants unless their minimum wage is hiked to reflect brisk inflation, a union spokesman said. [ID:nL1E8G8A4I]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Tuesday, as investors fretted over the growing uncertainty in the euro zone after key elections and the weak U.S. economic data that cast doubts over the state of global economy.

Elections in France and Greece that produced changes in the political scene that may endanger austerity measures in the euro zone and disappointing U.S. jobs data pushed prices to a low at 3,311 ringgit on Monday, a level last seen on March 12.

Palm oil market pulled back before the midday break but bearish sentiment eventually dominated the market, paring gains this year to 5.5 percent.

"Cloudy outlook on formation of new governements in Europe still haunts market sentiment," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"This selloff towards the end is likely to be shortlived as bullish expectation is growing on the MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) and USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) planting report due Thursday."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.3 percent to close at 3,351 ringgit ($1,097) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 32,797 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

On the technicals front, palm oil will end its rebound in a resistance zone of 3,388-3,412 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL4E8G82KP]

But palm oil fundamentals look healthy as cargo surveyor data showed a strong export growth in April, which could have pushed palm oil stocks to a one-year low.

Market consensus showed that April stocks should continue to stay below the psychological 2-million-tonne mark, a Reuters median survey showed on Monday. [ID:nL4E8G79FP]

But some traders said that prices will likely not go up on expectation of lower stocks as it has already been priced in.

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue official data on output and stocks on Thursday.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 8 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets rose moderately on Tuesday as investors selectively bought into blue-chip firms, including Thai consumer and telecoms stocks after their strong quarterly results, bu t commodities-related shares fell along with the weak oil market.

Uncertainty over the implications of the Greek and French elections for Europe's efforts to resolve its debt crisis weighed on sentiment in the region, pushing the main Thai SET index <.SETI> and the Philippine index <.PSI> to a one-week low at one point.

Thai stocks edged up 0.3 percent to 1,231.04 on Tuesday while Philippine shares rose 0.24 percent to 5,242.06 on the session.

The region saw mixed fund flows, with Malaysian bourse taking in 35.78 million ringgit ($11.7 million) of foreign inflows while Indonesia posted $30 million of foreign outflows, according to Thomson Reuters and stock exchange data.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - Investors brushed off Europe's election results, as the S&P 500 rebounded from early losses to end nearly unchanged on Monday, despite the uncertainty surrounding the euro zone's ability to tackle its debt crisis.

U.S. financial stocks, normally highly sensitive to events that could unsettle the euro zone's fiscal stability, were not only the biggest gainers, but had the heaviest volume.
"One positive thing we are seeing out of the elections and we are hearing from the ECB chairman is a focus on growth and that austerity measures alone are not going to get them out of this crisis," said Sean Lynch, global investment strategist for Wells Fargo Private Bank in Omaha, Nebraska.

"So if there are more growth-oriented measures, that could help the banking system and could be a positive for the economy as well."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> slipped 29.74 points, or 0.23 percent, to 13,008.53 at the close. But the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> inched up just 0.48 of a point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,369.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 1.42 points, or 0.05 percent, to 2,957.76.

The election results from Europe initially roiled futures markets on Sunday night, but markets were able to rebound. Greeks voted to cast out ruling parties in elections on Sunday, dealing a blow to the fragile political consensus that has kept Europe's currency bloc intact through more than two years of crisis.

In France, Socialist Francois Hollande won the presidency over incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, raising pressure on Germany to pursue a more growth-oriented approach to the regional crisis. [ID:nL5E8G69GS]

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged lower on Monday in choppy trading after European election results revived worries about the region's debt woes and contracting economy.

Socialist Francois Hollande's victory in France's presidential election signaled a push back against German-led austerity policies. [ID:nL5E8G6A7] [ID:nL5E8G7DE2]

Greece's election created uncertainty over whether formation of a new government is possible and a first attempt failed on Monday. [ID:nL5E8G707V]

Crude prices posted a fourth straight lower settlement, but crude bounced after slumping intraday to multimonth lows that prompted buying by bargain hunters.

Europe's latest turmoil was judged not to be an immediate threat to the economies of China and India, the key sources of oil demand growth.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell 55 cents, or 0.56 percent, to settle at $97.94 a barrel, having dropped to $95.34, the lowest intraday price since Dec. 20. Monday's intraday peak was $98.24.
* Greece might run out of cash by end-June if it does not have a government in place to negotiate a next aid tranche with the EU and the IMF and projected state revenues fall short, three finance ministry officials told Reuters on Monday. [ID:nL5E8G7D89]

* Raising OPEC's output target is not on the exporting group's agenda for now but probably will be, Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Youcef Yousfi said. OPEC is scheduled to meet next on June 14 in Vienna. [ID:nL5E8G71MM]

CBOT SOYBEAN-May 7 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell on Monday, joining a commodities sell-off after Greek and French election results undermined confidence in Europe's plans to tackle its debt crisis, traders said.

* Weekend rains across much of the U.S. Midwest crop belt added pressure, bolstering prospects for bin-busting corn and soybean crops this autumn.

* Ahead of USDA's weekly crop progress report due out later on Monday, a Reuters poll of analysts projected U.S. soybean planting progress at 22 percent complete, ahead of the typical pace for this time of year. [ID:nL1E8G77Y6]

* USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 9.992 million bushels, below trade expectations for 14 million to 18 million.

* USDA confirmed sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in 2011/12. [ID:nL1E8G745M]

* Brazil grain analyst Celeres cut its forecast for the country's 2011/12 soybean crop to 64.95 million tonnes, from its early April estimate of 67.9 million. [ID:nL1E8G7FC7]

* Farmers in Argentina's Buenos Aires province will halt grains and livestock sales for four days starting Thursday to protest a planned tax hike, but exports should not be affected, an agricultural leader said. [ID:nL1E8G7FLC]

* Large speculators added to their net long position in CBOT soybeans in the week ended May 1, raising it to a fresh record high, according to CFTC's supplemental report. [ID:nL1E8G4LD4]

* CBOT reported 13 deliveries against May soybeans, no soymeal deliveries and 947 soyoil deliveries.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on last-minute buying on Monday, reversing losses from an 8-week low as election results in Greece and France threatened to undermine austerity measures aimed at preventing the euro zone debt crisis from spreading.

French voters ousted incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in a presidential election on Sunday while the first Greek election since the euro zone debt crisis threatened to put the country's bailout programme at risk. [ID:nL5E8G6A7][ID:nL5E8G600O]

But concerns of the market being oversold after hitting a low at 3,311 ringgit -- a level last seen on March 12 -- prompted traders to go bargain hunting after the midday break.

"Looking at the overall scenario, the market has potentially penciled in all the possible bearish sentiments, so we anticipate a recovery in prices soon," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched up 0.1 percent to close at 3,360 ringgit ($1,101) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 23,092 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly lower than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil will fall to 3,253 ringgit per tonne based on technical analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao, adding that the contract may hover around 3,325 ringgit on Monday and plunge to 3,253 ringgit on Tuesday. [ID:nL4E8G749J]

Yet palm oil fundamentals look healthy as the latest export data showed that shipments jumped by almost 10 percent, signalling robust demand for the edible oil from Asia.

Market players have shifted their focus to Malaysian exports for the first 10 days of May, in which an improvement could boost demand outlook for the edible oil. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]

High exports last month could have pushed palm oil stocks to a one-year low despite the higher production growth, a Reuters median survey showed on Monday.[ID:nL4E8G79FP]

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue official data on output and stocks on Thursday.

REGIONAL EQUITY- May 4 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Monday with Singapore's sharemarket losing more than 2 percent as risk averse investors sent regional benchmark indices lower following elections in Europe and weak U.S. jobs data that signalled a tepid recovery.

Singapore's Straits Times index <.FTSTI> fell 2.2 percent, to its lowest level in a month and tracking a similar drop for the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS>.

Heavyweights CapitaLand Ltd fell 5.4 percent while shipping firm Neptune Orient Lines shed 4 percent.

Indonesia's Jakarta Composite <.JKSE> slipped 1.4 percent, retreating further from the record high it hit last Thursday.

Vietnamese stocks were outperformers on the day, rising 2.1 percent, helped by foreign buying after the government announced measures late last week to support domestic companies, including a cap on lending rates. [ID:nL4E8G79DQ]

Monday, May 7, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended its worst week this year with a sharp selloff on Friday after a slowdown in job creation in the world's top economy raised the biggest question mark yet about the prospects for U.S. growth.

Employers reduced hiring for the third straight month, adding 115,000 workers in April, well below forecasts of 170,000. Traders' expectations had fallen during the week, but the softer jobs number missed even more pessimistic forecasts.

"When we entered the second quarter, we thought it would be a consolidation/correction quarter for the market simply because it was overbought, over-believed, and we saw economies were not improving, and that is still the case," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist of Robert W. Baird & Co in Nashville.

Investors were also cautious ahead of elections in France and Greece over the weekend as European policymakers struggle to bring an end to their debt crisis and people rebel against the strain of austerity measures. [ID:nL5E8FNASP] [ID:nL5E8G40O9]

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 168.32 points, or 1.27 percent, to 13,038.27 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 22.47 points, or 1.61 percent, to 1,369.10. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> fell 67.96 points, or 2.25 percent, to 2,956.34.

The selloff came on the highest volume in two weeks. Around 7.02 billion shares were traded on the NYSE, the Nasdaq and the NYSE Amex, above the daily average of 6.76 billion. On the NYSE, decliners outnumbered advancers by a ratio of 3 to 1. On the Nasdaq, four stocks fell for every one that rose.
 
With this week's retreat, much of the S&P 500's gains fromthe move off the April closing low at 1,358.59 have been erased. The market has found support around that level in the past, but a breach there could take it back to 1,340.

Also dampening the mood on Friday, surveys showed the euro zone's economy worsened markedly in April and suggested a recession may be deeper than previously thought. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> slid 1.7 percent to close at 1,027.15. [.EU][ID:nL4E8G4567]

"People were too optimistic about Europe. They felt the recession was going to be shallow and short, and I felt it would be deep and long, and that is still my posture," Bittles said.

Russian shares plunged 4 percent, wiping out this year's gains in the benchmark MICEX index, as demand for risk assets waned and oil prices hit the rouble currency.

The Russian stock market is the only one of the BRICs countries to be in the red for the year. With this week's retreat, much of the S&P 500's gains from

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell nearly 4 percent on Friday as data showing weakening job growth in the United States added to concerns about slowing economic activity.

U.S. employers cut back on hiring in April and more people stopped looking for work, adding to worries about slowing economic growth. [ID:nL1E8G43V1]

Employers added 115,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the Labor Department said, well below economists' expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down by a tenth of a point to a three-year low of 8.1 percent, but only because a drop in the number of people hunting for jobs shrank the labor force.

Confusion of upcoming margin changes at the CME Group's New York Mercantile Exchange and technical selling after U.S. crude fell back under $100 a barrel and Brent crude fell below its 200-day moving average also helped pressure oil prices, analysts and brokers said.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell $4.05, or 3.95 percent, to settle at $98.49 a barrel, after trading from $97.51 to $102.72.

* For the week, NYMEX crude fell $6.44, or 6.1 percent, the biggest weekly percentage loss since the week to Sept. 23, when prices fell 9 percent.

CBOT SOYBEAN-Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher Friday on export demand and spillover support from corn that helped the market shake off early weakness tied to sharp declines in U.S. crude oil, traders said.

* Soymeal posted the biggest gains in the soy complex, with most-active July meal rising $6.20 a ton, or 1.5 percent, to end unofficially at $432.60 a ton. July meal gained more than $3 against December on spreads.

* Soyoil fell on meal/oil spreading and spillover weakness from U.S. crude oil futures, which fell more than 4 percent and dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-February.

* Spot soybean futures unofficially ended the week down 1.5 percent, halting a five-week rally.

* U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed sales of 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery. [ID:nL1E8G43AT]

* Informa Economics projected U.S. 2012 soybean plantings at 75.822 million acres, up from its previous forecast of 74.2 million.

* Informa predicted a jump in South American soybean production in the next crop year, projecting the 2012/13 Brazilian soy crop at 80.5 million tonnes and the 2012/13 Argentine soy crop at 60 million tonnes.

* Canadian stocks of canola fell to a four-year low at 4.7 million tonnes by March 31, according to a Reuters poll of 13 traders and analysts ahead of Monday's Statistics Canada stocks report. [ID:nL1E8FUEOE]

* CME Group was granted a 90-day reprieve from imposing new rules that will hike margins for some exchange members by as much as a third. Traders said the postponement was supportive to grain and oilseed markets. [ID:nL1E8G414O]

* Wet weather will slow corn and soybean seedings in the U.S. Midwest for the next couple of days, followed by drier and cooler but not cold weather. "The forecast looks good for crops in general. There will be rain in most of the Midwest the next three to four days, then drier for the rest of next week," said John Dee, meteorologist for Global Weather Monitoring.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Friday, touching a six-week low at 3,335 ringgit, the steepest weekly loss since November, as investors remain worried about the health of the global economy.

Global investors are keeping a close watch on U.S. jobs data, due to be released at 1230 GMT, to help them gauge the outlook for the global economy and commodity demand. [ID:nL1E8G1E9I]

"Fundamental strengths are being ignored. This is a technical speculative sell down. Besides, uncertainties surrounding elections in Europe over the weekend dampened any huge position holding," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.6 percent to close at 3,358 ringgit ($1,115) per tonne. The contract ended the week with a 4.2 percent loss, its worst performance since November 2011.

"Price corrections are taking place here but I see it as healthy because the market has been going up too fast. It will probably be over soon as demand is still strong. If next week's

MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) and exports data continue to be supportive, the market will rebound pretty quickly," said another trader with a local commodites brokerage in Malaysia.

Traded volumes stood at 31,440 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil will fall to 3,325 ringgit per tonne, a break below which will open the way towards 3,253 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao based on technical analysis. [ID:nL4E8G412S]

On the fundamentals side, palm oil demand remains healthy as indicated by cargo surveyor data. April exports jumped by 9.4 and 10.4 percent from a month ago, according to Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]

Demand from major importers China, India and Europe picked up, helping to push up shipments of the edible oil.

Traders are now watching output numbers in No.2 producer Malaysia for more clues on April palm oil stock levels. Higher demand and a lower output will eat into palm oil stocks, which fell below 2 million tonnes in March, and push up palm oil prices.

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue official data on output and stocks next week.

Oil slipped under $116 per barrel on Friday, ahead of a U.S. payrolls report, and was poised for its steepest weekly fall since December due to concerns over the health of the global economy and easing fears over supply disruption. [O/R]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 4 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Friday, with Thailand led down by index heavyweight energy shares such as PTT Pcl , amid concerns over the health of the global economy and caution ahead of a U.S. payrolls report.

The Philippine index <.PSI> inched down 0.05 percent at 5,297.55, slightly coming off a record closing high of 5,300.41 on Thursday.

Bucking the trend, Malaysia's main index <.KLSE> extended its gain for a fourth session, ending up 0.5 percent at 1,591.04 on Friday. The Malaysian bourse said foreign investors bought shares for 118 million ringgit ($38.92 million) on the day.

Friday, May 4, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday as economic data sent mixed signals on the recovery a day before the April payrolls report, while shares of Green Mountain plunged after poor results.

Slower-than-expected growth in the dominant U.S. services sector drove the day's trading. The retail sector dragged the market lower after several chains, including Target Corp and Gap Inc , fell after missing April sales estimates. Market expectations for Friday's non-farm payrolls report have fallen this week. Traders now suspect the economy added 125,000 to 150,000 jobs in April, below a Reuters consensus forecast of 170,000. One trader said there had even been some talk of a number below 100,000.

Ryan Larson, head of equity trading at RBC Capital Management, said muted reactions to recent signs of economic weakness suggest some investors are counting on more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve if the data gets worse.

"You are going back to 'bad numbers are good numbers'," he said, referring to the latest change in Wall Street's perception of discouraging data. "The market will believe that (Fed Chairman) Bernanke & Co will have to step in."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 61.98 points, or 0.47 percent, to 13,206.59 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 10.74 points, or 0.77 percent, to 1,391.57. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 35.55 points, or 1.16 percent, to 3,024.30.

Initial jobless claims posted their biggest weekly drop since May 2011 and countered Wednesday's weaker report on private-sector hiring. [ID:nOAT3GE83T]

The Institute for Supply Management's report on Thursday showed the pace of growth in the large U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in April, with drops in both new orders and employment. That was in contrast to the ISM's report on Tuesday, which showed U.S. manufacturing activity picked up in April.[ID:nL1E8G34DG]

"This is a continuation of the volatility and fits and starts we've seen in economic data, and that's causing investors to take a wait-and-see attitude before tomorrow," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive of Horizon Investment Services LLC in Hammond, Indiana.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell for a second straight day on Thursday, tumbling more than 2 percent on data indicating slowing economic growth and on increased OPEC production that the group's secretary general said is intended to curb high prices.

Friday's closely watched U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report is forecast to show the economy added 170,000 jobs. That would be a rebound from the addition of a meager 120,000 jobs in March. [ID:nL1E8G1MO3]

OPEC's secretary general said the group is working hard to bring down oil prices and is pumping much more than its official target even as exports from cartel-member Iran dwindle. [ID:nL5E8G358A]

Higher crude production from Saudi Arabia and data showing U.S. crude inventories have risen six straight weeks have helped pull crude futures back from 2012 peaks reached in the first quarter.
* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell $2.68, or 2.55 percent, to settle at $102.54 a barrel, the biggest one-day percentage loss since Dec. 14, 2011. The $102.36 intraday low was a penny below the 100-day moving average (MA). Crude peaked on Thursday at $105.42.

* The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council put pressure on Iran to allay international concern about its nuclear program, and said they expected talks with Tehran to lead to concrete steps toward a negotiated solution. [ID:nL5E8G39E0]

* The UAE's oil pipeline for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is complete and exports are expected to start within three months, UAE Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamli said. [ID:nL5E8G3FNB]

* Seaborne oil exports from OPEC, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will fall by 360,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to May 19, UK consultancy Oil Movements said in its latest weekly estimate. [ID:nL5E8G3HSN]

* Crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, oil hub rose by 1 million barrels from April 27 to May 1 to hit a fresh record, according to a report by industry data provider Genscape. [ID:nL1E8G3EAV]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures fell 0.8 percent, hitting a one-week low on long liquidation and bearish chart signals, traders said.

* Nearby contracts posted the biggest losses as traders unwound long old crop/short new crop spreads.

* Most-active July soybeans posted a chart reversal on Wednesday, setting a contract high but closing below the previous day's low, a factor that prompted follow-through selling on Thursday.

* Commodity funds hold a record net long in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market open to bouts of long liquidation.

* Soyoil futures felt additional pressure from 2.5 percent decline in U.S. crude oil futures.

* Market underpinned by tightening global soy supplies. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina's 2011/12 soybean harvest to 41 million tonnes, from 43 million previously. [ID:nE6E7N6058]

* CIF soybean basis bids at the U.S. Gulf were mostly steady to firm, underpinned by good export demand from China which bought more new-crop supplies overnight, traders said.

* Deliveries on CBOT May soybeans totaled 40 contracts; no deliveries on May soymeal and 1,462 contracts delivered on May soyoil.

* USDA's weekly export sales report showed net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week at 1,732,000 tonnes, above estimates for 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 tonnes. [ID:nIGB03ED70]

* USDA confirmed sales of 232,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13. [ID:nC3E7N602M]

* Some Chinese soy crushers could turn to cheaper government stockpiles as Chicago Board of Trade prices soar and supplies from South America dwindle, traders in Beijing said. [ID:nL4E8G34JK]

* CME Group said it would delay an expansion in electronic trading hours for grains by one week, starting with trading date May 21. [ID:nL4E8G37SJ]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses to a six-week low on Thursday, as disappointing economic data from the United States and Europe cast doubts on global economic recovery and commodity demand.

Palm oil futures ended at 3,370 ringgit, a level last seen on March 23, as investors reacted to a slew of data that signalled stagnant hiring and weak manufacturing activity. [ID:nL1E8G1KLS][ID:nL5E8G223R]

"It's very much the global sentiment. Fundamentally palm oil is still bullish because supply is still facing issues. The tree stress is already confirmed, so the next catalyst will be the Malaysian Palm Oil Board numbers," said Alan Lim, research analyst with Kenanga Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended 2.4 percent lower at 3,370 ringgit ($1,111) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 33,591 lots of 25 tonnes each, way higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Traders are now looking at production numbers for clues on market movement as strong exports in April failed to lift the market. Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue official data on output and stocks next week.

Lower output will further eat into palm oil stocks, which fell below 2 million tonnes in March.

Demand for the edible oil seems to be healthy as indicated by cargo surveyor data. April exports jumped by 9.4 and 10.4 percent from a month ago, according to Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]

On the technicals front, a bearish target for palm oil at 3,397 ringgit has been revised lower to 3,370 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL4E8G315X]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 3 (Reuters) - Philippine stocks hit an all-time high on Thursday spurred by optimism over the economy and strong earnings outlook of a consumer conglomerate.

But markets elsewhere in Southeast Asia posted modest gains because of concerns over the strength of global growth.

The Philippine main index <.PSI> ended up 1.37 percent at 5,300.41. Shares in food-to-property firm Alliance Global Group Inc were among actively traded, gaining 3.1 percent.

"I think the market optimism was about the first quarter GDP growth which market is expecting the figure to be higher than consensus," said a Manila-based trader.

"Consumer conglomerate earnings are standing out and there's a good buying interest in the sector today," he said.

According to Thomson Reuters data, the Manila bourse had steady foreign inflows so far this week, taking in $230 million on Wednesday when the main stock index also finished at a record closing high.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

RTRS- SocGen ups 2012 soybean price forecast

May 2 (Reuters) - Societe Generale on Wednesday lifted its 2012 soybean price forecasts saying the continued declines in South American production have rapidly depleted both the U.S. and global soybean inventories.

The French bank raised its average 2012 soybean price forecast to $14 per bushel from $12.50 a bushel.

"We continue to expect soybean prices to peak in Q2-12, assuming normal weather during the US growing season this summer," SocGen said in a research note to clients.

Given the precariously tight soybean inventories, the bank said it expects the recent price action to continue until more clarity is gained on the state of the U.S. crop.

RTRS- Top U.S. grain group concerned about expanded CBOT hours

CHICAGO, May 2 (Reuters) - Longer trading sessions at the benchmark Chicago grain futures markets will raise costs for U.S. grain merchants and could put some at a competitive disadvantage, the nation's largest grain group said on Wednesday in response the CME Group's plan for 22 hours of trading.

The CME Group on Tuesday said beginning May 14 it will expand grain futures trading to 22-hour sessions, a move it said would give users near round-the-clock access to the markets. The move also would compete directly with the InterContinentalExchange , which will launch competing grain contracts.

The National Grain and Feed Association said there was "significant concern" about the market being open when the U.S. Agriculture Department releases its crop reports.

"In particular, accessing those reports is not generally a quick and simple process," the NGFA said in a statement. "There may be competitive advantages for firms or individuals who are able to access and process report information earlier than others."

A NGFA spokesman was not immediately available to comment on what types of traders would have the advantage on report days, which typically attract the heaviest trading volume and produce the wildest price swings.

The CME's move to 22 hours of trading came shortly after ICE said it will list look-alike wheat, corn and soy contracts that trade on a 22-hour basis.

NGFA, which has thousands of members from grain facilities, food processors, biofuel makers and exporters, also said it would be asking the CME for more details about its plans for price settlement and other matters.

CME has said it will move to a blended settlement procedure, using prices from both pit and electronic trading, beginning in June. The exchange initially planned a transition to the new settlements for both grains and livestock futures in March and April but that plan was met with strong opposition from floor traders.