Thursday, August 7, 2008

Trader's comment:Commercial buying interest coupled with stronger e-CBOT lifted the BMD FCPO prices

Commercial covering at the underlying cash market and recovery of overnight losses in CBOT (e-CBOT up 150 points at one stage) provided the excuse for the technically oversold market to due for correction. According to a trader, quite an active destination sales in the last few days as prices had drop substantially where this may have attract the consumer buying interest. 3rd month Oct08 settled RM55 higher at 2845 after trading between 2735 to 2851.

FCPO fully covered upside gap

Market fully covered the upside gap left over on 4th-6th Jul, 2008 at 2803-2820 and surged to close near the day high with printed a long white candle. Looks may target another gap left over on 1st-4th Jul, 2008 at 2897-2935. Downside support is pegged at 2700-2710.

FKLI extended losses in two straight days

Market tested the immediate support at 1110-1109 in intra-day basic but managed to close above it. However, market momentum getting weaker following prices extended losses in two straight days. Hence, the immediate resistance remained at 1143-1146 and immediate support pegged at 1110-1109 followed by 1095-1092.

KLSE losing ground a little

KLSE losing ground a little and market tested the immediate support at 1123 in intra-day basis but not closing. Looks market may eying gap left over 1116-1112.5 (gap left over on end-July, 2008). Resistance remained at 1140-1150.

Breaking News-RTRS-Interview- India firms renege on veg oil imports as prices fall

RTRS-India vegetable oil traders renege on import contracts as prices fall-Trade Official
RTRS-India likely to reimpose import tax on crude veg oils next month as prices fall-Trade
RTRS-India expected to allow veg oil exports in small quantities soon-Trade
RTRS-India seen importing 1.5-1.8 mln tonnes edible oils in three months to October-Trade

FCPO looks steady

Market was moving steady through out the morning session. FCPO looks may have chance to challenge the upside gap left over on 4th -6th Aug, 2008 at 2803-2890. Immediate support is pegged at 2700.

FKLI covered some of the downside gap after break neckline support

Market covered some of the downside gap left over on end-Jul, 2008 at 1103.5-1110 after break the neckline support. Market momentum remained weak. Thus, immediate resistance at 1117-1118.5 (unfilled gap this morning). Immediate support at 1106.5-1103.5 (remaining gap left over).

Market view: hold short with buy stop at 1121-1125

KLSE broke the support at 1123

KLSE failed to hold and broke the support at 1123. Market may move sideways to lower in near term. For now, look for the immediate support at 1116.14-1112.6 (gap leftover on end-Jul, 2008). Resistance is at 1138.18.

FKLI broke the neckline support

Market violated the neckline support at 1117 after the opening bell gap down. Looks may want to move lower and target the immediate support at 1103.5-1110 (gap left over on end-Jul, 2008). For upside, resistance is at 1115.5-1118.5 (gap left over in this morning).

Market view: go for short with buy stop at 1121-1125

Breaking News-RTRS-USDA's corn, soy crop forecasts to rise-Hightower

CHICAGO, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture is likely to raise its estimate of the U.S. 2008 corn crop in its August supply/demand report next week, reflecting improved crop prospects, commodity analyst David Hightower of The Hightower Report said on Tuesday.

For soybeans, USDA might not raise its yield estimate next week, but an increase in planted acreage should help lift the government's 2008 soy production estimate.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) -U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, building on the previous day's big gains, as a further drop in oil prices and a reassuring outlook from Cisco Systems overshadowed persistent credit concerns.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 40.30 points, or 0.35 percent, to 11,656.07, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 4.30 points, or 0.33 percent, to 1,289.18. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 28.54 points, or 1.21 percent, to 2,378.37.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell for a third day in a row on Wednesday as government data showed that crude oil stocks rose much more than expected last week.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, September crude settled down 59 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $118.58 a barrel,trading from $117.11 to $120.49.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - August down 42 cents at $12.20-1/2 a bushel, new-crop November down 47 at $12.22. Talk a big trader or fund forced out of long position hit soy market. Market slides to four-month low amid technical weakness and outlooks for improving U.S. crop prospects as weather is favorable for pod setting and filling. Spillover selling from sliding crude. Several months fell the 70-cent limit, including November, amid talk of heavy liquidation by a large fund .

SOYOIL - August down 1.50 cent at 51.48 cents per lb.Falling amid broad-based sell-off in commodities.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 1.45 percent on Wednesday, lifted by short-covering after touching a new nine-month low a day earlier, but sentiment remained weak on worries about shipment defaults.The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 40 ringgit or 1.45 percent at 2,790 ringgit ($851.7) a tonne.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, August 6 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian equities rose on Wednesday as oil prices fell to a three-month low and eased inflation fears.

In Asia, Thailand <.SETI> added 1.4 percent, Singapore <.FTSTI> gained 0.9 percent, the Philippine index <.PSI> jumped 3.6 percent and Vietnam <.VNI> climbed 1.7 percent.Malaysia <.KLSE> however underperformed with a 0.4 percent rise on renewed political uncertainty as Malaysian police said the country's best known opposition politician was to be charged with sodomy on Thursday.

DJI extended gains for consecutive two trading days

DJI holding up extended gains for consecutive two trading days. Market may want to continue to challenge the resistance at 11698. Support is remained at 11210-11221 followed by 11128-11125.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Trader's Comment:CPO futures was trading in both end of the price

CPO futures was trading in both end of the price and taking a breathe after recent sharp falls. Overnight losses in CBOT and NYMEX crude oil were more or less anticipated by market players. Benchmark Oct08 recovered from intra-day low at 2710 and rebounding to settle RM40 higher at 2790.

FCPO rebounded from lower end

Market make a U-turn to rebound from the lower end to end in positive territory. Gap left over yesterday at 2787-2820 has been covered some. Market looks may want to challenge the remaining gap left over at 2803-2820. Immediate support is at 2700.

FKLI gave up all its early gains

FKLI gave up all its early gains after prices failed to hold at the high of 1143.5. Market then violated the immediate support at 1120-1125 and close near to day low with a long black candle. Hence, market may want to trade sideways to lower in near term. Thus, we look for the immediate support and resistance at 1110-1109 and 1143-1146 level respectively.

KLSE holding well

Nothing much changes on the immediate daily technical outlook as prices recovered a little after yesterday sharp losses. Consolidation phase may extend in near term. We continue to look for the support at 1116-1112.5 (gap left over on end July). Resistance is at 1140-1150.

FCPO easing off after fully covered morning gap

Market easing off after fully covered the morning gap. We continue to look for the immediate resistance at 2803-2890 (remaining gap left over since yesterday) and immediate support at 2700.

FKLI inching higher as 1120 defended well

Market inching higher following market managed to defend to stay above 1120. We look for the resistance at 1148-1150 and support at 1117.

KLSE rebounded

KLSE rebounded from yesterday losses to end positive in midday break. Consolidation phase may extend in near term. We continue to look for the resistance at 1141-1142. Support is pegged at 1132-1128 (gap left over this morning) followed by 1123.

RTRS- US crop forecast

CHICAGO, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Consulting firm Informa Economics projected the 2008 U.S. corn crop at 12.330 billion bushels, reflecting an average yield of 155.4 bushels per acre, trade sources said on Tuesday.

Informa, based in Memphis, Tennessee, estimated the 2008 U.S. soybean crop at 3.054 billion bushels with an average yield of 42.0 bpa.

The corn estimate exceeds USDA's current corn output forecast of 11.7 billion bushels and average yield of 148.4 bpa. The soybean estimate is slightly ahead of USDA's crop forecast of 3 billion bushels and a yield of 41.6 bpa.


CHICAGO, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Commodity brokerage firm FC Stone on Monday forecast the U.S. 2008 corn crop at 12.197 billion bushels and the soybean crop at 2.993 billion bushels.