Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended broadly higher in late trading.

Palm oil futures ended broadly higher in late trading. Benchmark Mar09 initially hit the morning high of 1583 after opened RM16 higher at 1561 following overnight strong closing in CBOT. However, lack of follow through buying activities saw CPO prices to ease off and began to trade in a range between 1575-1555 level through out the day. Slight selling off activities seen in early 2nd session sent Benchmark Mar09 to hit intra day low at 1548 but was well supported and immediately pulled back into the range. Statement by Oil World analyst that said palm oil prices are likely to rise in coming months had helped to provide some buying support in the market. Late intra day covering and speculative buys ahead of OPEC meeting today saw prices climbed and hit intra day high at 1586 before it settled RM35 higher at 1580. Total daily volume was moderate with 6905 contracts changed hands.

Breaking News-RTRS-Palm oil to pull edible oil prices upwards-Oil World

HAMBURG, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Global palm oil prices are likely to rise in coming months and will help strengthen other vegetable oil markets, Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World said on Tuesday.
"We forecast prices of crude palm oil (cif Rotterdam) will increase to $660 in Jan/June 2009," it said in a weekly report. Cif Rotterdam crude palm oil prices are now around $500 a tonne.

Breaking News-RTRS-HK central bank cuts base rate by 100 basis points

HONG KONG, Dec 17 (Reuters) - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority on Wednesday lowered the base rate charged through its overnight discount window by 100 basis points to 0.50 percent.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 2-Pimco's El-Erian: Unintended consequences from Fed move

NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The CEO of bond giant PIMCO hailed the Federal Reserve's cut of its main U.S. interest rate target as low as zero as an "extremely bold policy response" but warned of possible unintended consequences.
Aggressive moves by the U.S. central bank could send the U.S. currency under tremendous pressure and could result in even further disarray in capital markets, Mohamed El-Erian told Reuters on Tuesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve rewrote its playbook by slashing borrowing costs to a record low, even zero, and pledging more unconventional steps to fight the deepest recession in generations.

Banks led the charge higher, spurred both by the Fed's move to cap its target lending rate at a quarter percentage point and by a quarterly loss from Wall Street icon Goldman Sachs that was not as gruesome as many feared.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 359.61 points, or 4.20 percent, to 8,924.14. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> jumped 44.61 points, or 5.14 percent, to 913.18. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 81.55 points, or 5.41 percent, to 1,589.89.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Dec 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended 2 percent lower on Tuesday as concerns about the economy after the Federal Reserve cut its target for overnight interest rates trumped the weak dollar and OPEC's intent to cut oil output.

All the news is supportive, OPEC and the weak dollar, yet oil coming back off tells you the bears are still in control," said Tom Bentz, analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude fell 91 cents, or 2.04 percent, to settle at $43.60 a barrel, trading from $42.56 to $46.53.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- January up 12-1/2 cents to $8.58-1/2 a bushel, March up 13-1/2 to $8.63.

Dry weather in Argentina, the world's third largest soy exporter, supporting prices in addition to tight stocks of soy.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- January up 0.80 cent to 31.35 cents a lb, March up 0.80 cent at 31.71. Following soybeans.

FCPO
-JAKARTA, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures finished at a one-week low on Tuesday after falling for the third day in a row in the absence of any fresh news to renew buying interest, traders said.

The benchmark March palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange settled down 35 ringgit, or 2.22 percent, at 1,545 ringgit ($435) per tonne.

Other traded contracts fell between 31 and 36 ringgit. The overall volume was 9,676 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-Southeast Asian markets elsewhere were mixed amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and as a U.S. car sector bailout remained uncertain.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> inched up 0.4 percent, after a gain of almost 2 percent on Monday.

In Kuala Lumpur, some analysts said local sentiment turned cautious because of the U.S. markets, but the key share index ended 0.98 percent higher after a 0.68 percent fall on Monday.

Indonesia's main stock index <.JKSE> bucked the trend, sliding 1.2 percent after a 7.63 percent rise on Monday

FKLI Daily: tested 865


Market finally tested 865 level and close at day high had drew a little hope for a short term bear rebound. To the upside, we are looking the resistance at 869-871.5 followed by 876.5-877. While, downside support is pegged at 850-842.5.

KLSE Daily: remains same posture


Market remains the same posture and looks market may continue its sideways move in near term. Support is remains at 838-835. Resistance is at 858-860 followed by 864-868.

DJI Daily: triple digit gain


Immediate daily technical outlook looks cheers up a little following a triple digit gain. Resistance at 8827-8879 was violated and market looks may move sideways to bias little upside potential in near term. As for now, we are looking the resistance at 9000-9160. For downside, support is remains at 8347-8335.

FCPO Daily: losing ground


FCPO violated the immediate support at 1560-1556 and close weak had weakened further the technical landscape. Market may continue to move sideways with immediate support now looking at 1520-1500 followed by 1487. For upside, immediate resistance is at 1630-1640.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Trader's Comment: CPO futures dully traded in a lower range amid weaker crude oil prices.

CPO futures dully traded in a lower range amid weaker crude oil prices. Benchmark Feb09 hit the intra day low of 1529 after opened RM30 lower at 1550 following a fall in overnight NYMEX crude oil coupled with easier CBOT soy complex. It then traded in a range between 1560-1540 level through out most of the sessions. Some short covering activities appeared in the middle of second session saw CPO prices bounced to intra day high of 1570. Nevertheless, it immediately retreated back into the range due to lack of follow through buying activities. Benchmark Feb09 finally settled RM35 lower at 1545. News that India will import less palm oil due to better winter soybean crop and attractive rival soy oil prices had also provided some selling pressure to the weak market sentiment. Some players were also cautious ahead of FOMC meeting tonight and OPEC meeting tomorrow.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-AIG sells $39.3 bln in assets to NY Fed's fund

NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - American International Group , the insurer bailed out by the U.S. government in September, said on Monday it sold $39.3 billion of assets to a fund established by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Informa sees fewer U.S. corn acres in 2009

CHICAGO, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Analytical firm Informa Economics sees fewer U.S. corn acres for 2009 and more soybeans as the higher cost to plant corn versus soybeans was encouraging farmers to seed soy over corn, trade sources said on Friday.
Informa estimated U.S. corn acreage at 82.288 million and soybeans at 81.455 million, traders said.

Breaking News-RTRS-US Grain Week - Farmers on alert for price rallies in 2009

CHICAGO, Dec 12 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers will be on alert throughout the winter for any upticks in corn and soybean prices that could provide opportunities for them to sell crops they have been holding since harvest, grain dealers and agricultural economists said.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 5-Ecuador defaults, says to fight "monster" creditors

GUAYAQUIL, Ecuador, Dec 12 (Reuters) - President Rafael Correa declared a default on Ecuador's foreign sovereign bonds on Friday, vowing to fight "monster" debt-holders in court in one of most aggressive moves against investors in the region for years.
Correa, a U.S.-trained economist and ally of Venezuela's anti-U.S. President Hugo Chavez, refused to make a $31 million interest payment due on Monday on 2012 global bonds, saying the debt was contracted illegally by a previous administration.

Breaking News-RTRS-High valuations, earnings to hit Malaysia stocks-Citi

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian equities, one of Asia's top performers, could fall a further 17 percent in 2009 due to sliding economic growth, and earnings of plantations and banks are at high risk, Citigroup said in a note.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-IMF: lower China growth, unprecedented slowdown

MADRID, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The IMF could cut its forecast for Chinese 2009 economic growth to around 5 percent in its next revision as the global economy suffers an unprecedented slowdown, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Monday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks stumbled on Monday, roiled by worries about how big a bite the global financial crisis has taken from banks' profits and fallout from a massive investment fraud scheme.

JPMorgan Chase & Co was the biggest drag on the Dow after Merrill Lynch cut the stock to an "underperform" rating and forecast a loss for the bank's fourth quarter.

Another blow to sentiment was concern about the financial sector's exposure to potential losses related to investment manager Bernard Madoff, who is accused by U.S. authorities of masterminding a $50 billion fraud.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> shed 65.15 points, or 0.75 percent, to end at 8,564.53. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 11.16 points, or 1.27 percent, to 868.57. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 32.38 points, or
2.10 percent, to 1,508.34.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell on Monday, retreating from an early high above $50 a barrel as Wall Street slumped after a stronger open and refueled concerns about a slowing economy.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude fell $1.77, or 3.82 percent, to settle at $44.51 a barrel, trading from $44.24 to $50.05.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- January down 8 cents at $8.46 a bushel, March down 6-3/4 cents at $8.49-1/2 a bushel. Turned down when crude oil slipped and soyoil began falling

with additional pressure from trade reports on Friday that Informa Economics forecast 2009 U.S. soy acreage at 81.455 million, up from 75.9 million in 2008.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said November soybean crushings where 139.4 million bushels down from 143.4 million bushels in October.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- January down 0.37 cent at 30.55 cents per lb, March down 0.37 at 30.91 cents a pound. Downturn in crude dragged soyoil lower.

U.S. soyoil stocks stood at 2.04 billion pounds, up from 1.98 billion pounds in October, the National Oilseed Processors Association said.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures wiped out gains of 3 percent to end slightly lower on Monday, rattled by fears that exports to India will slow down, traders said.

The benchmark February palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange settled down 5 ringgit, or 0.32 percent, at 1,576 ringgit ($443) per tonne, after coming off a high of 1,630 ringgit.

Other traded contracts were mostly lower, falling between 5 ringgit and 40 ringgit. The overall volume stood at 6,891.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets rose on Monday amid optimism about a U.S. car sector bailout and investors picked up blue chips in the region such as Singapore's UOB, Thailand's PTT and Indonesia's Bank Rakyat. Thai shares <.SETI> rose 2.89 percent.

Indonesia's main stock index <.JKSE> led the gains, climbing 7.63 percent on strong buying in bank stocks, while Singapore shares <.FTSTI> gained 1.98 percent.

In Kuala Lumpur, the main index erased its morning gain, closing 0.68 percent lower, weighed down by a 2.5 percent fall in Bumiputra Commerce Holdings Bhd .

FKLI Daily: trying hard to sustain


Market is trying hard to sustain following few attempts to violate 865 level was failed. As for now, we pegged the immediate support at 850-842 followed by 840-836.5. For upside, resistance is at 865 followed by 869.5-871.

KLSE Daily: losing strength


Market is losing strength following a negative close. Looks market may move sideways in near term market. We now look for the immediate support at 838-835. Fro upside, resistance is at 858-860 followed by 864-868.

DJI Daily: directionless


Market continue its sideways move and looks directionless. We look for the immediate resistance at 8827-8879. For downside, immediate support is pegged at 8347-8335.