Friday, June 5, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures eased further after it surrendered its earlier gains.

Palm oil futures eased further after it surrendered its earlier gains. Benchmark Aug09 hit intra day high of 2611 after it gapped up RM33 higher to open at 2602, tracking the strong closed in overnight NYMEX crude oil and CBOT soy oil. However, due to lack of follow through buying activities, prices then began to fell lower for the rest of the day until it finally settled at the intra day low of 2520. External markets were mix as Dalian palm ended off high while eCBOT soy oil inched lower. News that India may cutback on palm oil imports in the second half of this year due to their huge edible oils reserves and a possible re-imposition of import duties on vege oils, had also provided some pressure on the local CPO prices.

Breaking News-RTRS-US soy oil stocks 3.159 bln lbs in April - Census

WASHINGTON, June 4 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean oil stocks
totaled 3.159 billion lbs in April, compared to 3.101
billion lbs in March, the U.S. Census Bureau said on Thursday.
The data were released as part of the Census Bureau's
monthly Fats & Oils Production and Stocks report.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Thursday as a brokerage's upbeat view on U.S. banks drove a run-up in financials, while soaring prices of oil and other commodities lifted natural resource companies on bets the economic slump is waning.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 74.96 points, or 0.86 percent, to 8,750.24. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> climbed 10.70 points, or 1.15 percent, to 942.46. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 24.10 points, or 1.32 percent, to 1,850.02.

While Thursday's economic reports generally supported expectations that the economy is starting to improve, disappointing May sales reported by major retailers showed that consumers are still holding onto their wallets.

Government data showed U.S. non-farm productivity rose by 1.6 percent in the first quarter, much stronger than initially estimated.

Investors are cautious about what Friday's report on U.S. employment might reveal as they look for more definitive signs that the recession that begun in December 2007 is easing. Since hitting a 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 has risen nearly 40 percent.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended more than 4 percent higher on Thursday, rallying on news that the number of U.S. workers filing new jobless benefit claims fell for the third straight week, which reinforced hopes that the recession was easing.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude settled up $2.69, or 4.07 percent, at $68.81 barrel, the highest settlement since $70.53 on Nov. 4. It traded from $65.92 to $69.60, the highest front-month price since $70.46 was reached on Nov. 5.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - July up 48 cents per bushel at $12.30. Support from higher crude oil and tight soybean stocks. Soy attempting to consolidate and rebound after the sharp decline of futures on Wednesday.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- July up 1.09 cents per lb at 40.34. Firm crude oil supportive in addition to gains in soybeans.

FCPO-JAKARTA
, June 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended little changed on Thursday as a rebound in crude oil prices provided support amid expectations for higher stocks, traders said.

The benchmark August contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange closed down 6 ringgit at 2,569 ringgit ($736.10) per tonne. Overall volume was 7,837 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, June 4 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian indices rose
on Thursday, tracking a late rebound in Hong Kong shares and U.S. futures.

Thailand's main index reached its highest level since October as government stimulus plans fuelled more buying of banking and building firms such as Bank of Ayudhya and Siam Cement.

Hong Kong shares <.HSI> and U.S. stock index futures rose as markets awaited rate-setting meetings at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

Thailand's stock index <.SETI> climbed 2 percent to its highest level since October 3, after Wednesday's 1.4 percent rise.

Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 0.8 percent, Indonesia <.JKSE> rose 1.1 percent and the Philippines <.PSI> advanced 0.9 percent. Vietnam <.VNI> extended its gains for a fourth day, adding 3 percent, to its highest level since October 2.

DJI Daily: Slow n Steady


Chart wise was remains unchanged as market extended its upside move in slow and steady manner. We continue to look for the upside resistance at 9000-9200. To the downside, support is pegged at 8200.

KLSE Daily: Up-trend remains intact


Market remains in positive outlook with downside support maintain at 1055-1050. While, to the upside, resistance is at 1072-1080.

FKLI Daily: Gaining ground


Market recouped from its early losses to end higher. Bulls look defended well at 1050 level and likely to continue its bulls run after re-charged energy. Therefore, we continue to look for the immediate upside resistance at 1075 followed by 1080-1090.

FCPO Daily: 2500 mark helped to cushion the downside momentum


Market remains under pressure following a formation of head and shoulder. However,2500 mark had helped to cushion the downside momentum. Thus, market may move sideways in near term. As for now, we are looking for the immediate upside resistance at 2600-2610 followed by 2650-2665. To the downside, immediate support is pegged at 2525-2500.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Trader's C omment: Palm oil futures recouped some of its earlier losses to end marginally lower.

Palm oil futures recouped some of its earlier losses to end marginally lower. The heavy losses in overnight CBOT soy oil saw Benchmark Aug09 to fall through out the morning session and hit intra day low at 2525. However, it started to bounce back in the second session and began to climb steadily until it hit intra day high of 2578, tracking the strong rebound of Asian time NYMEX crude oil following Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its crude oil price forecast for the end of 2009 to $85 a barrel from its previous target of $65 a barrel, in a research report today. At the closing bell, Aug settled at RM6 lower at 2569. External vege oil markets were rather mix as Dalian palm ended more than 1% lower while eCBOT soy oil edged higher. Daily volume improved slightly with total 13,291 contracts changed hands.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, June 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled on Wednesday, halting a four-day winning streak, as falling oil prices hit energy shares, while less upbeat economic reports rekindled worries about recovery prospects.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 65.63 points, or 0.75 percent, to 8,675.24. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 12.98 points, or 1.37 percent, to 931.76. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> declined 10.88 points, or 0.59 percent, to 1,825.92.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in an appearance before the House Budget Committee he expected to see "some positive growth later this year" but not robust growth.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, June 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell more than 3 percent on Wednesday, battered by government data showing a large, surprise increase in crude inventories and as the dollar rebounded strongly.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude settled down $2.43, or
3.54 percent, at $66.12 a barrel, trading from $64.95 to $68.95.

July crude hit an intraday high of $69.05 on Tuesday, the highest front-month price since $70.46 was reached on Nov. 5.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - July down 27 cents at $11.82 per bushel. Firm dollar, lower crude oil and drop in stock market weighed on soybean futures with profit-taking a key feature after the rally early in the week to eight-month highs.

CBOT-SOYOIL - July down 1.25 cents at 39.25 cents per lb. Lower crude oil and profit-taking weighing on soyoil futures.

FCPO-JAKARTA, June 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures dropped for a second day on Wednesday as investors, spooked by worries over higher production, continued to lock in profits from the recent crude oil-driven rally, traders said.

The benchmark August contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange settled down 23 ringgit to 2,575 ringgit ($739.52) per tonne. Overall volume was 9,830 lots of 25 tonnes each, less than the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, June 3 (Reuters) - Banking and building firms powered Thai shares to a 3-week high on Wednesday, while an interest rate cut triggered buying of financials and index heavyweights in Indonesia.

Singapore's index <.FTSTI> ended up 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent loss on Tuesday, with United Overseas Bank and DBS Group , Southeast Asia's biggest bank, each gaining more than two percent.

Among decliners in the region, Malaysia's index <.KLSE> and the Philippine index <.PSI> each dropped 0.8 percent after rising in the last three sessions. Malaysia's Tenaga Nasional fell 1.95 percent, while Metrobank in Manila lost 5.4 percent.

DJI Daily: in Slow motion


Nothing much changes on the immediate technical landscape as market was moving in slow manner. We continue to look for the upside resistance at 9000-9200. To the downside, support is looking at 8200.

KLSE Daily: due for Consolidation


Market looks is entering to consolidation phase after the recent rally. To the upside, resistance is at 1072-1080. To the downside, support is adjusted to 1050-1035.

FKLI Daily: in Consolidation phase


Bulls took a breathe following market violated the immediate support at 1057. Nevertheless, the overall technical landscape remains in positive mode. As for now, we are looking for the immediate upside resistance at 1075 followed by 1080-1090. While, immediate downside support is pegged at 1040-1030.

FCPO Daily: Head n Shoulder formed


Head and Shoulder pattern had formed following another day of weak closing. Thus, market is likely to move sideways to lower in near term. As for now, we are looking for the immediate upside resistance at 2651. To the downside, support is pegged at 2530-2500 followed by 2490-2480.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended easier after a tight range movement on thin volume.

Palm oil futures ended easier after a tight range movement on thin volume. Benchmark Aug had been hovering between 2606-2574 level through out most of the sessions after it opened almost unchanged at 2601. Some late intra day liquidation saw prices slid further to 2565 but was pushed up into earlier range again and settled RM23 lower at 2575. Market were somehow uncertain as players cautiously looking for any fresh leads especially on any further clues of end stock level, while waiting for the MPOB supply & demand data which will be release by next Wednesday. External market showed some weakness today as both eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm edged lower. Total daily volume stood at 9830 contracts changed hands.

Breaking News-RTRS-U.S. 2009/10 soy crop to rise sharply-Oil World

HAMBURG, June 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. is likely to harvest 88.5 million tonnes or 3.25 billion bushels of soybeans in 2009/2010 (Sept/Aug), up from 80.54 million in 2008/09 as farmers expand plantings, analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-China seen selling small amount of soy reserves

BEIJING, June 2 (Reuters) - China's state grains agency Sinograin is likely to release a small amount of its imported soybean reserves under a rotation programme to profit from rising soybean prices, dealers said on Tuesday.
Dealers were not clear on the amount but said some port warehouses holding reserves of imported soybeans planned to release a small volume because the cost of imported soybeans was expected to pick up this month after a price rise on the Chicago Board of Trade

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, June 2 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose for a fourth straight day on Tuesday as an upbeat report on home sales bolstered hopes for an economic recovery as well as shares in construction companies.

But a sell-off in financials on worries about the dilutive impact of recent stock offerings limited a broader advance. An index of pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes shot up 6.7 percent in April, the biggest monthly gain in 7-1/2 years, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> added 19.43 points, or 0.22 percent, to 8,740.87. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 1.87 points, or 0.20 percent, to 944.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 8.12 points, or 0.44 percent, to 1,836.80.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, June 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell further in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute's inventory data showed that domestic crude stocks fell less than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 5:05 p.m. EDT (2105 GMT), July crude was down 35 cents, or 0.51 percent, at $68.23. It earlier settled down 3 cents, or 0.04 percent, at $68.55, trading from $67.50 to $69.05, the highest intraday since prices hit $70.46 on Nov. 5.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- July down 9-1/2 cents at $12.09. Profit-taking after the surge on Monday to new eight-month high. USDA pegged U.S. soy seedings near low end of trade estimates but there is plenty of time to sow the 2009 crop.

CBOT-SOYOIL - July up 0.05 cent at 40.50 cents per lb. Turned firm following late upturn in crude oil and on light fund buying.

FCPO-JAKARTA, June 2 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures dropped 1 percent on Tuesday, easing from a two-week closing high, amid profit-taking as a retreat in crude oil dented market sentiment, traders said.

The benchmark August contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange settled down 27 ringgit to 2,598 ringgit ($745.05) per tonne, after going as high as 2,651 ringgit. Overall volume was 9,386 lots of 25 tonnes each, less than the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, June 2 (Reuters) - Shares in Singapore and Thailand
fell on Tuesday, snapping a 2-day rally as investors took profits from soaring commodity stocks and other index heavyweights late in the trading session.

Stock markets elsewhere in Southeast Asia ended mixed as demand for shares faded along with easing oil prices, analysts said.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> edged down 0.2 percent after surging to a fresh 8-month high in early trade. Developer CapitaLand slid 0.5 percent after a 5.5 percent rise on Monday.

Palm plantation firm Wilmar International fell 3.6 percent on easing Malaysian palm oil futures and a retreating crude oil price.

Malaysia's index <.KLSE> eked out a slim 0.2 percent gain to near a 9-month high. Maybank rose 3.8 percent, building on a 5 percent gain on Monday, while Public Bank
advanced 0.6 percent.

DJI Daily: inching up slowly


Market crawled up slowly after escape from its range bound territory. We continue to look for the upside resistance at 9000-9200. To the downside, support is looking at 8200.

KLSE Daily: still strong


we continue to look for the upside resistance at 1072-1080. To the downside, support is adjusted to 1050.

FKLI Daily: remains Bullish


Bulls retreated after hit another fresh high. However, overall daily technical landscape remains bullish. We continue to look for the immediate upside resistance at 1080-1090. While, immediate downside support is pegged at 1057 followed by 1040-1030.