BUENOS AIRES, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Argentina's soy harvest could be as small as 43.5 million tonnes due to drought damage, the government said in its first official estimate on Thursday, lower than many private forecasts.
Weeks of dry weather dimmed prospects for a bumper 2011/12 harvest in the world's No. 3 soybean exporter, which is also the top supplier of soyoil and soymeal, though recent rains have brightened the outlook - especially for later-seeded crops.
The Agriculture Ministry set 45 million tonnes as the top end of its forecast range because of "a decline in final yields, although not as big as initially expected."
The ministry said just 1 percent of early-seeded soy was in very good condition, although 48 percent was in good shape. That proportion was slightly higher for late-sown crops.
Corn, which is planted earlier than soy, was even harder hit by weeks of dry weather that lasted until mid-January, hampering plants as they passed through key yield-defining growth stages.
In its first official forecast, the ministry estimated corn production at between 20.5 million tonnes and 22 million tonnes.
"Harvesting has started of the first fields in the north of the country," the ministry said in its monthly crop report.
"Yields have been very patchy, but consistently below those of last season."
Argentina produced 48.9 million tonnes of soy and 22.9 million tonnes of corn in the 2010/11 crop year, according to official figures.
Weeks of dry weather dimmed prospects for a bumper 2011/12 harvest in the world's No. 3 soybean exporter, which is also the top supplier of soyoil and soymeal, though recent rains have brightened the outlook - especially for later-seeded crops.
The Agriculture Ministry set 45 million tonnes as the top end of its forecast range because of "a decline in final yields, although not as big as initially expected."
The ministry said just 1 percent of early-seeded soy was in very good condition, although 48 percent was in good shape. That proportion was slightly higher for late-sown crops.
Corn, which is planted earlier than soy, was even harder hit by weeks of dry weather that lasted until mid-January, hampering plants as they passed through key yield-defining growth stages.
In its first official forecast, the ministry estimated corn production at between 20.5 million tonnes and 22 million tonnes.
"Harvesting has started of the first fields in the north of the country," the ministry said in its monthly crop report.
"Yields have been very patchy, but consistently below those of last season."
Argentina produced 48.9 million tonnes of soy and 22.9 million tonnes of corn in the 2010/11 crop year, according to official figures.
