HAMBURG, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Global soyoil and palm oil prices are likely to rise in 2012 with a looming poor South American soybean crop to provide upward momentum, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
"We expect vegetable oil prices to appreciate in coming months," it said. "The supply and demand balance is going to become tighter, mainly as a result of recent additional soybean crop losses in South America and smaller-than-expected world production and export supplies of soyoil."
"This will spill over to palm oil, pulling up prices in coming months, despite the seasonal recovery of palm oil production."
Global dependence on palm oil supplies will continue to rise in 2012, keeping exports high in both leading producers Malaysia and Indonesia, it said. Palm oil prices traditionally rise when Malaysian and Indonesian exports are strong.
Meanwhile, the global rise in palm oil production and export supplies is set to slow down considerably on the year in Apr./Sep. 2012, it said.
But a bearish surprise for the global edible oil market could come from unexpectedly high sunflower seed crops in Ukraine and Russia and so larger supplies of sunoil, it said.
The especially cold east European winter means millions of hectares of crops will have to be replanted and sunflower seed will be a major choice, it said.
Russia and Ukraine could together harvest 17.5-19 million tonnes of sunflower seed in 2012 against 18.4 million in 2011, Oil World said.
"We expect vegetable oil prices to appreciate in coming months," it said. "The supply and demand balance is going to become tighter, mainly as a result of recent additional soybean crop losses in South America and smaller-than-expected world production and export supplies of soyoil."
"This will spill over to palm oil, pulling up prices in coming months, despite the seasonal recovery of palm oil production."
Global dependence on palm oil supplies will continue to rise in 2012, keeping exports high in both leading producers Malaysia and Indonesia, it said. Palm oil prices traditionally rise when Malaysian and Indonesian exports are strong.
Meanwhile, the global rise in palm oil production and export supplies is set to slow down considerably on the year in Apr./Sep. 2012, it said.
But a bearish surprise for the global edible oil market could come from unexpectedly high sunflower seed crops in Ukraine and Russia and so larger supplies of sunoil, it said.
The especially cold east European winter means millions of hectares of crops will have to be replanted and sunflower seed will be a major choice, it said.
Russia and Ukraine could together harvest 17.5-19 million tonnes of sunflower seed in 2012 against 18.4 million in 2011, Oil World said.
