KUALA LUMPUR, March 7 (Reuters) - Following are estimates on palm oil prices and other edible oil markets from leading analysts at the Bursa Malaysia conference that ends on Wednesday.
THOMAS MIELKE, EDITOR, OIL WORLD
PRICE FORECAST
"Under the lead of soybean oil, I expect vegetable oil prices to appreciate in the coming months. Although we have already appreciated quite considerably since January, we could see another increase in soybean oil prices by $80-$100 until the end of June, driving up also palm oil and other vegetable oils.
"For palm oil, there is an interesting development shaping up for April-September, following an unusually big increase in production and exports until March, the past 12 months until this March, the growth in production and exports in April-September, will be very small."
"This isn't in the market yet -- this is price supportive. Our price forecasts for the calendar year -- we will make a new record for the average of calendar year 2012 in palm oil and soybean oil."
"RBD palm olein for Malaysia $1,180. Crude palm Rotterdam $1,150. Argentine soybean oil $1,250. The premium of lauric oils relative to palm oil will narrow. My preliminary forecast for palm kernel oil is $1,400."
INDIA AND CHINA
"A slowing down of the soybean crush, will create some additional bullish potential for oils and fats. Now we are at a point where prices are in an uptrend, and I would like to point that this uptrend will be continuing and that we're going to face a relatively tight outlook for April-June, with appreciating palm oil prices within the next three months.
"Despite the boost in palm oil (output), prices weakened only slightly and already bottomed at $950 and is now moving upward, and we're not yet at the highs - prices are likely to go further up."
"India and China, the two major net importing areas, both countries need considerably more palm oil in the current season. They need approximately (extra) 2 million tonnes of oils and fats imports every year, to satisfy their demand."
"The price outlook is for higher prices, despite a further increase in palm (production) by more than 2 million tonnes."
SOYBEAN OUTLOOK:
"Soybean and rapeseed production are declining - first time ever that this has happened. We are going to see a global production deficit of around 14 million tones in the current season. Production is declining and stocks are declining.
"Quite a bullish scenario, and this is happening mainly in soybeans. For the first time ever, global soybean production is going to decline by approximately 20 million tonnes. The drought is over, weather conditions have improved but the improvement came too late."
"Very poor crop in Paraguay, very poor crop in Brazil, and now the problem is too much rain rather than insufficient."
"Soybean prices move higher, and what we've seen over the past eight weeks is a beginning but its not all of the price impact. We could see, after a temporary setback, we should see higher prices in the second half of March, probably early April."
PALM OUTPUT
"Over the past 20 years world (palm oil) production more than doubled, but it's still not yet sufficient to satisfy demand. Is palm oil production rising sufficiently? It is very clear, due to biodiesel programs in South America, we need accelerating growth in palm. (For) outlook for 2012, we believe there will be a slowing down of the
"(Production) growth here in Malaysia after last year's very good increase in yields and production. We now look at a more moderate growth of 0.4-0.5 million tones � most of this already occurring in January-March."
"Indonesia, our very preliminary estimate (is) 1.6 million tones growth to approximately 25.5 million tones in production this year. This means a global increase of approximately 2.3 million tones in 2012, this is not enough to offset insufficient production of other vegetable oils."
"We need at least 78 million tones of palm in 2020 (and) I doubt that the expansions programs currently in place in new plantings, are on track to reach this estimate."
JAMES FRY, CHAIRMAN, LMC INTERNATIONAL
PRICE FORECAST
Says if today's high crude oil prices will stay for the year and Indonesian export subsidies for refiners set the seasonal floor to Malaysian palm oil stocks at 1.85 million tonnes, Bursa Malaysia palm oil price this year will average 3,250 ringgit ($1,073), with the average palm kernel oil price 530 ringgit higher.
says if stocks are 0.3 million tonnes lower (at 1.55 million) at the low point, then the average CPO price is 3,350 ringgit.
says if Brent crude price falls steadily towards $86 per barrel by the end of the year, then the average crude palm oil price over the course of 2012 will be 2,870 ringgit.
says if there is an Iranian nuclear crisis, leading to the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, the 2012 average crude palm oil price will be 3,190 ringgit, but with a low of 1,870 ringgit.
INDONESIA EXPORT TAX
Says Malaysian stocks inextricably linked to events in Indonesia. End-month palm oil stocks were the highest ever for January in both countries.
Says Malaysian government has signalled "business as usual" in setting the crude palm oil tax-free export quota at 3.6 million tonnes this year;
Says this is the year when market should see impact of the new export tax regime in Indonesia with its incentives for refiners.
Malaysian refined oil exporters will have to concede market share to Indonesia. This will push more of the world stocks onto Malaysia.
PALM OIL OUTPUT
Revises estimates of Indonesian crude palm oil output. Output seen at 22.2 million tonnes in 2010, 25.15 million last year and 27.6 million tonnes this year.
For Malaysia, keeps 2012 forecast at 18.9 million tonnes unchanged from the previous year. ($1 = 3.027 ringgit)
THOMAS MIELKE, EDITOR, OIL WORLD
PRICE FORECAST
"Under the lead of soybean oil, I expect vegetable oil prices to appreciate in the coming months. Although we have already appreciated quite considerably since January, we could see another increase in soybean oil prices by $80-$100 until the end of June, driving up also palm oil and other vegetable oils.
"For palm oil, there is an interesting development shaping up for April-September, following an unusually big increase in production and exports until March, the past 12 months until this March, the growth in production and exports in April-September, will be very small."
"This isn't in the market yet -- this is price supportive. Our price forecasts for the calendar year -- we will make a new record for the average of calendar year 2012 in palm oil and soybean oil."
"RBD palm olein for Malaysia $1,180. Crude palm Rotterdam $1,150. Argentine soybean oil $1,250. The premium of lauric oils relative to palm oil will narrow. My preliminary forecast for palm kernel oil is $1,400."
INDIA AND CHINA
"A slowing down of the soybean crush, will create some additional bullish potential for oils and fats. Now we are at a point where prices are in an uptrend, and I would like to point that this uptrend will be continuing and that we're going to face a relatively tight outlook for April-June, with appreciating palm oil prices within the next three months.
"Despite the boost in palm oil (output), prices weakened only slightly and already bottomed at $950 and is now moving upward, and we're not yet at the highs - prices are likely to go further up."
"India and China, the two major net importing areas, both countries need considerably more palm oil in the current season. They need approximately (extra) 2 million tonnes of oils and fats imports every year, to satisfy their demand."
"The price outlook is for higher prices, despite a further increase in palm (production) by more than 2 million tonnes."
SOYBEAN OUTLOOK:
"Soybean and rapeseed production are declining - first time ever that this has happened. We are going to see a global production deficit of around 14 million tones in the current season. Production is declining and stocks are declining.
"Quite a bullish scenario, and this is happening mainly in soybeans. For the first time ever, global soybean production is going to decline by approximately 20 million tonnes. The drought is over, weather conditions have improved but the improvement came too late."
"Very poor crop in Paraguay, very poor crop in Brazil, and now the problem is too much rain rather than insufficient."
"Soybean prices move higher, and what we've seen over the past eight weeks is a beginning but its not all of the price impact. We could see, after a temporary setback, we should see higher prices in the second half of March, probably early April."
PALM OUTPUT
"Over the past 20 years world (palm oil) production more than doubled, but it's still not yet sufficient to satisfy demand. Is palm oil production rising sufficiently? It is very clear, due to biodiesel programs in South America, we need accelerating growth in palm. (For) outlook for 2012, we believe there will be a slowing down of the
"(Production) growth here in Malaysia after last year's very good increase in yields and production. We now look at a more moderate growth of 0.4-0.5 million tones � most of this already occurring in January-March."
"Indonesia, our very preliminary estimate (is) 1.6 million tones growth to approximately 25.5 million tones in production this year. This means a global increase of approximately 2.3 million tones in 2012, this is not enough to offset insufficient production of other vegetable oils."
"We need at least 78 million tones of palm in 2020 (and) I doubt that the expansions programs currently in place in new plantings, are on track to reach this estimate."
JAMES FRY, CHAIRMAN, LMC INTERNATIONAL
PRICE FORECAST
Says if today's high crude oil prices will stay for the year and Indonesian export subsidies for refiners set the seasonal floor to Malaysian palm oil stocks at 1.85 million tonnes, Bursa Malaysia palm oil price this year will average 3,250 ringgit ($1,073), with the average palm kernel oil price 530 ringgit higher.
says if stocks are 0.3 million tonnes lower (at 1.55 million) at the low point, then the average CPO price is 3,350 ringgit.
says if Brent crude price falls steadily towards $86 per barrel by the end of the year, then the average crude palm oil price over the course of 2012 will be 2,870 ringgit.
says if there is an Iranian nuclear crisis, leading to the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, the 2012 average crude palm oil price will be 3,190 ringgit, but with a low of 1,870 ringgit.
INDONESIA EXPORT TAX
Says Malaysian stocks inextricably linked to events in Indonesia. End-month palm oil stocks were the highest ever for January in both countries.
Says Malaysian government has signalled "business as usual" in setting the crude palm oil tax-free export quota at 3.6 million tonnes this year;
Says this is the year when market should see impact of the new export tax regime in Indonesia with its incentives for refiners.
Malaysian refined oil exporters will have to concede market share to Indonesia. This will push more of the world stocks onto Malaysia.
PALM OIL OUTPUT
Revises estimates of Indonesian crude palm oil output. Output seen at 22.2 million tonnes in 2010, 25.15 million last year and 27.6 million tonnes this year.
For Malaysia, keeps 2012 forecast at 18.9 million tonnes unchanged from the previous year. ($1 = 3.027 ringgit)
