BEIJING, March 26 (Reuters) - Lower South American soy production this year due to severe drought is likely to push up Chicago Board of Trade soy futures <0#S:> to more than $14 per bushel soon, top oilseed analyst Thomas Mielke said.
Worries over a lower production in Brazil and Argentina, the world's top and third largest producers respectively, have already pushed up CBOT prices about 13 percent this year with the May contracttrading at $13.75 per bushel on Monday.[GRA/]
"We have seen a small correction last week and I think the technical correction is over," Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research house Oil World, told a conference in Beijing on Monday.
"I expect prices of soybeans to reach $14 (a bushel) quite soon and probably rally towards $14-$15 or above sometime in the next 4 to 8 weeks, depending on South American harvest progress and harvest result."
The research house last week cut its forecast of Brazil's 2012 soybean crop to 66.5 million tonnes, compared with 75.3 million tonnes in 2011 because of drought and crop fungus. It also reduced its forecast of Argentina's 2012 crop to 46.5 million tonnes, down from 49.2 million tonnes in 2011.
Oil World is likely to cut the Brazilian soy output estimate further by 1-2 million tonnes, said Mielke.
China, the world's top soy importer, has already stepped up imports from the United States over the past weeks to try to source enough to meet rising demand and expanded capacity.
"China has been an active buy er over the past few weeks , " he said.
China, which imports about 60 percent of global soybean s , has booked about 29 million tonnes, or 25 percent, more in the first half of the year, ac cording to estimates from its of ficial think-tank, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC).
Worries over a lower production in Brazil and Argentina, the world's top and third largest producers respectively, have already pushed up CBOT prices about 13 percent this year with the May contract
"We have seen a small correction last week and I think the technical correction is over," Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research house Oil World, told a conference in Beijing on Monday.
"I expect prices of soybeans to reach $14 (a bushel) quite soon and probably rally towards $14-$15 or above sometime in the next 4 to 8 weeks, depending on South American harvest progress and harvest result."
The research house last week cut its forecast of Brazil's 2012 soybean crop to 66.5 million tonnes, compared with 75.3 million tonnes in 2011 because of drought and crop fungus. It also reduced its forecast of Argentina's 2012 crop to 46.5 million tonnes, down from 49.2 million tonnes in 2011.
Oil World is likely to cut the Brazilian soy output estimate further by 1-2 million tonnes, said Mielke.
China, the world's top soy importer, has already stepped up imports from the United States over the past weeks to try to source enough to meet rising demand and expanded capacity.
"China has been an active buy er over the past few weeks , " he said.
China, which imports about 60 percent of global soybean s , has booked about 29 million tonnes, or 25 percent, more in the first half of the year, ac cording to estimates from its of ficial think-tank, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC).
