HAMBURG, May 15 (Reuters) - The sharp fall in soybean prices in recent days is premature and tight supply fundamentals are likely to keep prices well supported in coming months, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
"We see only limited downward potential for soybean prices in the near to medium term," Oil World said.
U.S. soybean futures fell to six-week lows on Monday, dragged down by continued selling of long positions by funds and by concerns over the strength of the global economy. [GRA/]
The fall from highs reached on May 2 is "premature and mainly based on technical factors rather than fundamentals," Oil World said.
Global soybean harvests in the current 2011/12 season will fall to 116.07 million tonnes from 137.68 million tonnes in 2010/11, it said.
This is likely to be caused by expected poor crops in Argentina and Brazil. [ID:nL5E8G85U2]
"With South American supplies significantly reduced as of end-August 2012, there will be a run on U.S. export supplies - soybeans, soymeal and oil - for shipment in Sept./Feb. 2012/13," it said.
Near-record soymeal prices will also be required to ration available soymeal supplies, it added.
"Vegetable oil prices are seen appreciating in the near to medium term owing to insufficient world soybean supplies in the next few months, the prospective palm oil deficit in Malaysia...and insufficient world supplies of rapeseed and canola oils," it added.
