Wednesday, July 11, 2012

RTRS- US crops to struggle with drought through summer -forecaster

CHICAGO, July 10 (Reuters) - The drought decimating the corn crop in the United States will persist in August in the northern and western Midwest at a time when soybeans go through the critical yield-setting phase, the Commodity Weather Group said on Tuesday.

"I think there is a good chance that there will be some areas that will be will be continuing to struggle with drought, Joel Widenor, agricultural meteorologist for Commodity Weather Group, said on Tuesday.

The dry soils in key production areas such as Iowa and Nebraska will cut into what had originally been expected to be a bumper harvest of both crops.

"This will continue to limit late season showers for filling corn/soybeans," Commodity Weather Group said in a report titled Intermediate Seasonal Outlook.

Corn and soybean prices have soared during the past month amid worries that the worst drought in nearly 25 years will lead to smaller-than-expected production and spur another wave of inflation in food prices. Since the start of June Chicago Board of Trade corn futures have risen 37 percent while soybeans have rallied 24 percent.

The forecaster cited the further development of the El Nino weather pattern, warming of the surface water in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, as a reason for confidence in the outlook.

Wetter weather was expected in the Ohio Valley, southern U.S. Plains and Deep South during August. But that moisture will provide little help to developing crops in those areas because the plants will be more mature than is usual following an early planting.

"August showers will be less influential than normal on final yields," the note said.

The pattern is expected to continue in September, with dry weather persisting in areas west of the Mississippi River while the eastern growing areas receiving more rain.

The record fast planting of both corn and soybeans this spring had raised hopes of large harvests easing the strain on the global supply chain.

But a heat wave and crippling drought descended over the region in June, bringing crop conditions to their lowest levels since 1988.