SAO PAULO, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Brazil's new 2012/13 soybean crop, which begins planting in September, will produce a record 78.1 million tonnes, up 17.8 percent from last year's drought-parched harvest, local analyst Celeres said in its first forecast of the season.
Celeres said area dedicated to soybeans would grow by more than 8 percent to 27.14 million hectares from last season. If confirmed, that would be one of the biggest annual increases in planted area in almost a decade.
Dry weather over the past season erased roughly 10 million tonnes from Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop, which, combined with the drought affecting the current U.S. grain crop, has driven soybean futures prices Sc1 into record territory in recent weeks.
Brazil's main grain belt is expected to pass from the drier La Nina weather conditions into a wetter El Nino scenario later this year, which typically favors planting and crop growth in South America.
Early estimates of Brazil's new soy crop are showing one of the biggest jumps in year-to-year output the country has seen in a decade. (nL1E8GVIL2)
Fertilizer, seed and other agricultural input sales have been at record levels ahead of the coming crop. Producers have given early planting indications that they will sow a massive crop, giving up corn, cotton and pasture land to plant soy.
Record high prices in the midst of the U.S. drought and a more favorable exchange rate since the weakening of the real BRBY against the dollar this year are the main drivers of the rush to plant soybeans that will be harvested in early 2013.
Celeres' forecast for an 8 percent increase in planted area over last year -- which was a record planting as well -- would mean the biggest annual expansion since 2004.
This is even more significant given that the total area planted is 5 million hectares bigger, land costs are far higher and environmental restrictions are tougher than eight years ago.
Celeres' output forecast is modest, however, compared with some market views that see the next crop at easily more than 80 million tonnes.
The local analyst put next season's yields at a conservative 2.877 tonnes per hectare. Excluding the horrid 2.640 tonnes per hectare last season due to the drought, Brazil has averaged more than 2.9 tonnes per hectare in past years and harvested a record more than 3 tonnes per hectare in 2010/11.
