HAMBURG, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Soybean stocks in the leading South American producers have dropped by about a third against this time in 2011 after poor harvests and brisk exports, shifting global soybean demand to the United States at a time of concern the U.S. crop will also fall, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“At the beginning of August, combined soybean stocks in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay had plummeted to only an estimated 45.4 million tonnes, a staggering 22.5 million tonnes or one-third below a year earlier,” Oil World said.
“Soybean crushers are reportedly facing increasing difficulties in acquiring soybeans considering that a large portion of the physically available stocks is already committed.”
The United States is the world’s largest soybean exporter, followed in second place by Brazil, then by Argentina and Paraguay. Drought cut soybean harvests in South America this year while another drought and heatwave is also threatening the U.S. crop. (nL2E8J1F9L)
Oil World estimates Brazil’s Aug. 1 soybean stocks fell to 20.80 million tonnes from 33.15 million tonnes on Aug. 1, 2011. It believes Argentina’s stocks fell to 22.66 million tonnes from 30.62 million tonnes and Paraguay’s to 1.75 million tonnes from 3.88 million tonnes.
Instead of meeting global soybean demand, Brazil may have been importing soybeans itself recently, it said.
“There was talk recently that Brazilian crushers are considering purchasing soybeans from neighbouring countries,” Oil World said. “An estimated 0.2 million tonnes was apparently purchased from Bolivia, but we consider it unlikely that any noticeable quantity will be imported from Argentina and/or Paraguay where soybean supplies are currently unusually tight too.”
Brazilian and Argentine soybean exports were above expectations in June and July, it said. But they will have to drop in the remaining months of the year as supplies dwindle.
The “prospective sharp decline in South American exports is boosting foreign demand for U.S. origin to levels the United States is unlikely to satisfy, owing to the recent significant soybean crop deterioration,” Oil World added.
This is a major reason why soybean prices reached all-time highs in July, it said. GRA/
