Monday, August 13, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks notched a gain for the sixth session in a row on Friday, while the euro faltered as gloomy Chinese economic data butted up against expectations policymakers could act to shore up the world's economies.

Stock markets' recent rally has been underpinned by comments by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi two weeks ago that the central bank was "ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro," raising hopes of heavy bond buying to aid Spain and Italy.

A weaker-than-expected reading in China's July exports on Friday, however, soured the mood and took U.S. stocks lower for most of the day. In addition, new bank loans in China were at a 10-month low, suggesting pro-growth policies have been insufficient and that more urgent action may be needed. The weakness in exports included a 16 percent drop in sales to Europe from a year ago.

"The data from China is concerning because the global economy is still the backdrop for the market. People are still very cautious because of the global growth concerns," said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds in New York.

Some economists said the Chinese central bank could move as early as this weekend to ease policy.

European shares closed lower but Wall Street recovered late in the day in thin trade. The euro headed for its first weekly drop against the dollar and yen in three weeks.

"It makes sense that we'd take a bit of a breather, but momentum has been strong and the fact that we've held steady despite a lack of good news is a good sign the trend will continue," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell Friday on demand worries, as China's oil imports fell and its total exports were less than expected in July while the International Energy Agency forecast lower growth for oil demand for next year.

For the week, September crude ended higher, gaining for a second straight week. Gasoline futures ended fractionally higher and heating oil dipped 0.8 percent. Both product futures rose for the week, also extending weekly gains to a second in a row.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose for a third day after the U.S. Department of Agriculture slashed its forecasts of U.S. 2012/13 soy production and ending stocks, traders said.

However, the market pared gains by the close as traders booked profits and as corn and wheat futures fell.

Most-active November soybeans SX2 ended up 0.9 percent for the week, the contract's second straight weekly gain and the seventh in eight weeks.

USDA cut its U.S. 2012/13 soybean production forecast to 2.692 billion bushels, from 3.050 billion in July and below trade estimates for 2.817 billion.

USDA lowered its estimate of the U.S. soy yield to 36.1 bushels per acre, below the average trade estimate of 37.8. It projected U.S. soybean harvested area at 74.6 million acres, below the average estimate of 74.8 million.

USDA cut its forecast for U.S. 2012/13 soybean ending stocks to 115 million tonnes, down from 130 million in July but above an average of trade estimates for 112 million. If realized, the stocks-to-use ratio would be 4.19 percent, the lowest since 1964/65.

Continued export demand from China added support. USDA said private exporters sold 290,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2012/13 delivery.

Argentina ordered a tax hike on biodiesel exports, a move it said was needed to make domestic fuel prices more affordable, but denied market rumors that it will increase a soybean export tax.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures ended off an 8-week low on Friday, and posted a fifth straight weekly loss with traders positioning ahead of a key report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) later in the day.

Palm oil initially went to its lowest since June 15 after cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported a 1.8 percent fall in exports for the first ten days of August from a month ago. PALM/ITS

But prices pulled back on short-covering ahead of USDA's monthly supply and demand report at 1230 GMT that is likely to show a tighter soy output and squeeze soybean oil supply, shifting some demand to palm oil.

"The USDA report tonight is the most important. If it is bearish, we will see palm oil go down fast to 2,700 and 2,600 ringgit. If it is bullish, it will try to crawl above 3,000 ringgit," said a Malaysian planter.

"People will be watching Olympics but I will be watching the USDA report."

At closing, the benchmark October palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up 0.6 percent to 2,882 ringgit ($925) per tonne. Prices touched a low of 2,844 ringgit, a level last seen on June 15.

Palm oil ended the week 1.2 percent lower, the fifth consecutive week that the edible oil is in the red.

Total traded volumes were high at 28,005 lots of 25 tonnes each on short-covering, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- Aug 10 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly firmer on Friday, with Indonesia near a three-month high led by financials and on large foreign inflows. Thailand advanced for a fifth straight session.

The region's markets were down in early trade due to weak Chinese trade data for July, but recouped losses later in the day.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE nudged up 0.25 percent, led by a 2.1 percent gain in Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk BBRI.JK. The index hit near its highest level since May 9 fed by a net foreign inflow of $70.59 million.

Thailand's top oil firm PTT PTT.BK, with a 1.8 percent gain, helped Thai SET index .SETI add 0.14 percent to close at its highest since July 18.

Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI ended 0.1 percent firmer.

Malaysia .KLSE rose 0.2 percent while the Philippine index .PSI finished 0.1 percent stronger.