Thursday, August 9, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - The Standard & Poor's 500 just barely extended a streak of gains to a fourth day on Wednesday, ending above 1,400 in another thinly traded session.

Expectations for stimulus from the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve triggered the recent gains, but investors found little reason to keep pushing stocks higher after driving the market to three-month highs.

The three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower but recovered at midday, led by consumer staples .GSPS and health care .GSPA. Both are defensive plays, an indication that investors are keeping their enthusiasm in check.

"It's very positive that we found better footing throughout the session, which indicates that the market's path of least resistance is higher," said Jeff Mortimer, director of investment strategy for BNY Mellon Wealth Management in Boston.

The hope for central bank action comes amid projections of poor growth for coming quarters and lackluster demand worldwide.

In a sign of that weakening demand, McDonald's Corp MCD.N fell 1.7 percent to $87.53 after reporting flat same-store sales in July, the worst performance for the Dow component in more than nine years. (nL2E8J81UK)

"The idea that Europe will remove itself from the brink is clearly contributing to the tone in markets. There's a feeling that central banks will do whatever it takes to provide liquidity, should things get worse," said Mortimer, who helps oversee $171 billion in assets.

The Bank of England gave little indication that it would rush to pour in further stimulus even as it sharply cut its forecast for medium-term economic growth in Britain. France's central bank forecast a contraction in growth going into the third quarter, citing weak demand from the periphery and Britain. (nL6E8J83Y9) (nL6E8J82R3)

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 7.04 points, or 0.05 percent, to 13,175.64 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX edged up just 0.87 of a point, or 0.06 percent, to finish at 1,402.22. But the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC slipped 4.61 points, or 0.15 percent, to end at 3,011.25.

Spanish benchmark 10-year debt yields ES10YT=TWEB briefly rose above 7 percent, underscoring the cautious tone from investors recently disappointed by lack of coordination from European officials in their efforts to reignite the economy.

Markets are pricing in the idea that it may take time until Spain asks for a bailout, which would open the door for ECB intervention. (nL6E8J88MU)

Wednesday's market moves appeared to be largely driven by algorithmic trading, signaling a lack of conviction in any one direction.

Volume was light, with about 5.72 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, well below last year's daily average of 7.84 billion.
Just under half of the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange closed higher on Wednesday, while on the Nasdaq, about 42 percent of shares closed higher.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Wednesday in choppy trading, snapping a string of three straight higher settlements, after hitting a three-month peak reacting to data showing falling U.S. crude stocks.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell 3.7 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report, a much larger drop than expected.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1 percent to halt a two-day decline, lifted by export demand and positioning ahead of a monthly U.S.government crop report, traders said.

* Unconfirmed rumors swirled that China bought as much as 1 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans this week, along with two cargoes of Argentine soyoil, traders and analysts said.

• USDA said private exporters reported sales of 140,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery. (nW1E8IB022)

• Grain trade awaits USDA's monthly supply/demand reports on Friday. Analysts expect USDA to lower its forecasts of U.S. soybean production, yield and harvested acreage, as well as ending stocks for both 2011/12 and 2012/13. (nL2E8J7353)

• Forecasts for the U.S. Midwest crop belt called for showers and cooler temperatures over the next week to 10 days, potentially helping late-planted soybeans - meteorologist. (nL2E8J82QA)

• The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said July was the hottest month in the continental United States on record, beating the hottest month in the devastating Dust Bowl summer of 1936. (nL2E8J85IF)

• Meat producers in Brazil's Mato Grosso do Sul state are lobbying the government to approve soy imports from neighboring Bolivia, a local official and analysts said. Farmers want some 300,000 tonnes of Bolivian soybeans to feed their livestock, mostly pigs. (nL2E8J89NI)

• CBOT reported no deliveries of soybeans or soymeal against August futures, while soyoil deliveries totaled 911 contracts.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil prices fell to near eight-week lows on Wednesday on expectations that stocks of the edible oil recovered in July.

Stocks likely climbed in July to their highest since February as exports slow and production rises, snapping four straight months of declines, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday. (nL4E8J73WI)

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release official stock and output data on Friday.

"Traders are nervous and funds have built massive long position in grains," said a dealer with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "Fundamentals are not looking good with higher output and tepid demand."

Benchmark October palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.5 percent to close at 2,864 ringgit ($922) per tonne. Prices earlier touched a low of 2,854 ringgit, a level last seen on June 15.

Total traded volume picked up after the midday break to 28,933 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

For the week, investors are awaiting other key figures, including a monthly supply and demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) that could provide some clues on soybean production trends and the extent of drought damage.
Tighter supplies of soybeans to be converted into soybean oil could shift vegetable oil demand to cheaper palm oil.

Market participants are also looking out for the Malaysian palm oil export data for the first 10 days of August due on Friday, especially after a dismal showing in July. PALM/ITS PALM/SGS

On the weather front, palm oil investors are watching out for a possibility of El Nino returning to Southeast Asia, as the hot and dry weather pattern could damage palm oil yields for top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Thai shares climbed to three-week highs on Wednesday, in line with most others in the region, as expectations of better earnings outlook boosted large-cap energy stocks including Thai Oil Pcl TOP.BK and PTT Global Chemical Pcl PTTGC.BK.

The main SET index .SETI rose 0.5 percent, extending its gains for a third day to close at 1,214.13. Thai Oil jumped 4.3 percent, with about 30.26 million shares changing hands, 3.9 times the average full-day volume in the last 30 sessions.

Energy shares, dogged by concerns over the impact of weak global oil prices, have been a target of short sellers, market traders said.

"The poor second-quarter earnings by energy firms, such as Thai Oil, confirmed the worst fears of market investors," said Viwat Techapoonphol, senior strategist of broker Tisco Securities. For Thai Oil earnings report, click (nL4E8IU2KX)

"People are more upbeat on the sector's outlook and we saw short sellers bought back energy stocks today," he added.

Gains in market big-caps lifted other Southeast Asian stock markets, with the Philippine index .PSI up 0.5 percent at a 1-month high of 5,308.67. Bucking the trend, Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI fell 0.5 percent as investors booked profits ahead of a National Day holiday on Thursday