Tuesday, September 18, 2012

RTRS-Dalian soymeal racks up biggest 1-day drop since 2009

BEIJING, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Dalian soymeal futures 0#DSM: fell around 4 percent on Monday, in their biggest single-day drop since 2009, following weakening prices on the Chicago Board of Trade 0#S:, pressured by the rapidly advancing U.S. harvest.

The switch of speculative funds from agriculture futures to metals was also a factor behind the fall, analysts said.

The most-traded January 2013 contract DSMcv1 fell 4.19 percent to close at 4,083 yuan ($650) per tonne, the biggest one-day drop since August 17, 2009. Soymeal DSMcv1 was traded at an all-time record of 4,369 yuan per tonne last week.

The market expects that falling Chicago prices will spur China, the world's top soy buyer, to increase imports of soy, the raw material from which feed ingredient soymeal is made.

"Chinese crushers have not bought enough and they will step up purchases as soon as Chicago prices fall low enough," said one industry analyst, who declined to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

But the price fall was expected to be short-lived and domestic meal prices will be supported by the tight supply of soybeans in largest exporter the United States, where the worst drought in more than 50 years will reduce supplies to China.

"The U.S. soy harvest will be lower anyway, and supply will be tight before the South American harvest reaches the market early next year," said Wang Ping, an analyst with Dong Wu Futures.

Market expectations are for China's own harvest to be reduced by about a fifth this year to about 11 million tonnes, said Liang Yong, an analyst with Galaxy Futures based in Heilongjiang, the country's top soy area. The lower domestic output is because of a cut in soy acreage farmers made early in the year.

Beijing also plans to sell 400,000 tonnes of domestic soy from state reserves on Sept 27 to help boost supplies. The government has sold 3.04 million tonnes since 2010. 

($1=6.3145 yuan)