HAMBURG, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Strong global demand for U.S. soybeans will keep soybean prices firm in the coming months despite the recent fall from early September's record highs, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
Global importers will have little choice but to compete for scarce U.S. supplies after poor crops in Brazil and Argentina in early 2012, it said.
“Soybean prices have only limited downward scope as long as U.S. exporters face outstanding demand, primarily from China,” Oil World said. “The bullishness may be dampened somewhat by rapid marketing of the U.S. crop as farmer selling is encouraged by huge premiums for nearby delivery.”
U.S. soybeans set a record high of $17.94-3/4 on Sept. 4 as the worst drought in half a century ravaged crops in the U.S. Midwest after drought also damaged crops in Brazil and Argentina this year. But prices fell from their peaks on hopes that rain last month had helped the U.S. soybean crop, with a key U.S. Department of Agriculture report on Wednesday keenly awaited for the latest indication of the harvest size.
Soymeal prices have also slipped back from record highs seen this summer.
“Prices seem to have met upward resistance as demand for soymeal is suffering from the eroded profitability in the livestock sector,” Oil World said.
There are increasing signs that livestock farmers are cutting production as the surge in soybean and corn prices this summer raises animal feed costs.
“Like soybeans, soymeal has only limited downward potential, at least until early 2013, given the unusually low global soymeal production shaping up in coming months,” Oil World said.
Brazil’s Sept./Dec. 2012 soybean exports are likely to fall to only 2.5 million tonnes from 7.4 million tonnes in the same period last year, Oil World said.
Export restrictions in some form cannot be ruled out in Brazil to conserve domestic supplies, it added.
The United States and Brazil are rivals for the position as the world’s largest soybean exporter.
Brazil has started to import soybeans from neighbouring Bolivia and Oil World estimates that 250,000 tonnes of Bolivian soybeans and 340,000 tonnes of Bolivian soymeal will be imported by Brazil between Aug. 2012 and Feb. 2013.
