Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed on Monday, rebounding from last week's losses after Citigroup's earnings and retail sales sharply exceeded expectations.

Citigroup Inc C.N shares shot up 5.5 percent to $36.66 and gave the biggest lift to the S&P 500 a fter the third-largest U.S. bank reported quarterly adjusted earnings that surged from the year-ago quarter and beat expectations. The growth came as mortgage lending increased and capital markets results rebounded.

Results from Goldman Sachs GS.N are expected Tuesday. The stock gained 3.6 percent to $124.50 on Monday, while the S&P financial index .GSPF rose 1.2 percent.

Worries about third-quarter U.S. earnings have put a damper on stocks in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 falling 2.2 percent last week - its worst weekly performance in four months. But the S&P 500 is still up 14.5 percent for the year.

"It's a quiet rally after a little bit of a pullback," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp. in Chicago.

"There is this continued sense that most money managers are trailing the index. You're not going to catch up if you're sitting in cash, so there continues to be pressure."

The three major U.S. stock indexes also drew support from optimism about retail data, which showed September retail sales rose 1.1 percent - above the 0.8 percent growth that had been anticipated.

Investors remained cautious about Europe, waiting for signs that Spain was ready to formally request a bailout, which is seen as necessary to deal with its debt crisis.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 95.38 points, or 0.72 percent, to 13,424.23 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 11.54 points, or 0.81 percent, to finish at 1,440.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC advanced 20.07 points, or 0.66 percent, to close at 3,064.18.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 kept above technical support levels at their 50-day moving averages. Last week's declines had left each index on the precipice of breaking below t h ose levels.

"The market's reasonably priced, and while it’s had a good move this year, I think most people have not participated so there might be an opportunity for a bit of a tailwind," said Mark Foster, chief investment officer at Kirr Marbach & Co in Columbus, Indiana.

Shares of Intel INTC.O, the world's leading chipmaker, gained 1.2 percent to $21.73 a day ahead of its earnings report. Analysts are expected to watch Intel's gross margin figures, which have been declining in the past couple of years. Intel's advance on Monday helped drive the PHLX semiconductor index .SOX up 1.5 percent.

Drugmaker shares advanced, led by Eli Lilly and Co LLY.N, up 4.1 percent at $52.53, and Abbott Laboratories ABT.N, up 4 percent at $72.05. The S&P healthcare index .GSPA climbed 1.4 percent.

Eli Lilly shares rose after the drugmaker said a late-stage study of its experimental gastric cancer drug met its main goal of improving overall survival. Abbott's stock gained after results from a mid-stage study of hepatitis C medicines.
Lending further support was a rebound in energy shares as U.S. crude curbed an earlier slide that had pushed the price down below $90 a barrel. The S&P energy index .GSPE gained 0.5 percent. O/R Brent crude rose $1.18, or 1.03 percent, to settle at $115.80 a barrel.

Profits of S&P 500 companies are seen dropping 2.3 percent this quarter from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data.

With about 8 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported, 58 percent of companies have topped profit expectations - less than the average beat rate of 67 percent for the past four quarters, Thomson Reuters data showed.

In other economic data, a survey showed that an index of manufacturing activity in New York state shrank for the third month in a row in October.
Volume was roughly 5.9 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.52 billion.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rallied late to end only a penny lower on Monday, as skepticism about Iran's offer to negotiate on uranium enrichment and gains on Wall Street helped oil recover after it fell $2 and tested support near the 100-day moving average.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell to a 3-1/2 month low below $15 a bushel on technical selling and long liquidation ahead of a potential bumper crop in South America, traders said.

* Additional pressure from talk of better-than-expected U.S. soybean yields as the harvest winds down. Ahead of USDA's weekly crop progress report expected later on Monday, analysts surveyed by Reuters pegged the U.S. soybean harvest at 71 percent complete.
• A cold front that moved into southeastern Brazil over the weekend will likely bring light rainfall to the country's main soy belt this week, providing welcome soil moisture - forecaster Somar. Brazil is expected to surpass the United States in 2012/2013 as the world's top soybean producer.
• In Argentina, rains that have slowed Argentine corn sowing are expected to give way to sunshine by midweek, setting the stage for easy planting of the country's soy crop.
• CFTC weekly data issued on Friday showed large speculators cut their bullish bets on CBOT soybeans for a sixth straight week.
• The National Oilseed Processors Association reported the U.S. soybean crush for September at 119.732 million bushels, down from 124.773 million in August but above the average trade estimate for 118.361 million.

• NOPA reported U.S. stocks of soyoil in September at 2.043 billion lbs, down from 2.168 billion in August but slightly above the average trade estimate of 2.012 billion lbs.

• Top global soy buyer China imported 4.97 million tonnes of soybeans in September, up 12.4 percent from 4.42 million tonnes in August, Chinese customs data showed. Imports of vegetable oils in September were 860,000 tonnes, up 34.4 percent from the previous month.
• China's soymeal futures 0#DSM: fell more than 3 percent on Monday to a three-month low, boosted by expectations that domestic soybean supply will improve in coming months and also due to an upgraded outlook for the U.S. crop.
• USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 57.825 million bushels, well above trade expectations for 40 million to 45 million.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Monday after the government last week announced tax cuts that will only take effect next year, doing little to ease record stocks in the short term.

The market was also under pressure from declines in the U.S. and China soyoil futures. U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 extended losses to almost 2 percent in late Asian trade on Monday, hitting its lowest since mid-June.

The most active January 2013 soyoil contract DBYF3 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange ended down 1.6 percent, after dropping to its lowest since early June.

"When you come into the office and see Dalian and U.S. soyoil falling, the sentiment darkens," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"And this adds to the concern that Malaysia is only going to do something concrete at the start of 2013 and that means it will be hard to bring down stocks completely."

The benchmark December contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 2.7 percent to close at 2,433 ringgit ($796) per tonne after tumbling as much as 3.3 percent to an intraday low at 2,417 ringgit.

Total traded volumes stood at 35,166 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysia plans a cut in crude palm oil export taxes, slated for 2013, as it moves to help refiners offer cheaper cargoes, Commodities Minister Bernard Dompok said on Friday.
But it may continue issuing a tax free crude palm oil quota to some firms next year, a senior industry source told Reuters on Monday, as planters resist the government plan to abolish the export facility in the world's No.2 producer of the edible oil.

The market expects top industry analysts Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry to address the impact of the tax change at a seminar in Malaysia on Tuesday.

Latest cargo surveyor data pointing to stronger demand could help ease palm oil stocks in Malaysia, which hit a record 2.48 million tonnes in September.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct. 1-15 rose 13.1 percent to 769,534 tonnes from 680,112 tonnes for the Sept. 1-15 period, Intertek Testing Services said on Monday.

Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a higher increase of 16.3 percent on the month, to 768,550 tonnes.

Technicals showed palm oil would fall to 2,361 ringgit per tonne, as a rebound from 2,230 ringgit has finished around resistance at 2,528 ringgit, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.

In a bearish sign for palm oil, Brent futures slipped towards $114 a barrel on Monday, falling for a second session due to worries over weak oil demand, although concerns over potential supply risks from tension in the Middle East kept losses in check.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets edged slightly higher in light trade on Monday, with selective buying in large-caps such as Petronas Chemicals PCGB.KL and Bank Rakyat BBRI.JK helping recoup losses in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Malaysia's main index .KLSE finished up 0.07 percent at 1,654.44, coming off a near two-week low of 1,649.15. Local institutions bought shares worth 77.54 million ringgit ($25.34 million) while foreign investors sold 75.9 million ringgit ($24.81 million), stock exchange data showed.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE ended 0.05 percent higher. Bank Rakyat, among the actively traded stocks, gained 2 percent after Fitch Ratings affirmed its rating of the state-owned bank.
In Bangkok, telecoms shares rebounded from the morning's lows, outperforming the broader SET index .SETI, with second-ranked Total Access Communication DTAC.BK up 1.4 percent after a court dismissed a petition seeking to halt an auction of third-generation licences scheduled for Oct. 16.