HAMBURG, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Soybean
prices are too low and do not reflect the possible risk to tight global
supplies if the critical South American soybean harvest in early 2013 suffers
weather damage, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“In our opinion the prices of
soybeans and other oilseeds are currently undervalued considering the
production risks in South America and the unusually small world stocks
available at the beginning of 2013,” Oil World said.
“Soybean stocks will be depleted to
a multi-year low of 49 million tonnes at the beginning of 2013 when the South
American crop starts moving. They are down 21 million tonnes from a year ago
and leave hardly any cushion for crop damage.”
Soybean prices hit record highs in
September as drought ravaged the U.S. crop, but fell back to pre-drought levels
in mid-November as the U.S. harvest turned out larger than expected and looming
big South American crops may relieve world supplies in early 2013.
Unfavourable sowing weather in key
exporters Argentina and Brazil led Oil World to cut its forecasts of 2013
soybean harvests in both countries but a large increase is still expected on
the year. (Full Story)
Low stocks and short U.S, supplies
will mean the world will urgently need big South American soybean exports in
early 2013, it said.
“At the moment the market is
optimistic in its estimates of soybean yields and production in South America,”
Oil World said. “But the biggest problems are to be seen in the possibly too
low pace of soybean disposals caused by the bottlenecks in the domestic
transport and export facilities in Brazil and Argentina.”
As the United States is forecast to
export over 80 percent of its available soybean export supplies by February
2013 and with soybean stocks sharply reduced, the monthly volumes to be shipped
out of South America will have to be record volumes from March 2013, it said.
Brazil’s soybean stocks on Jan. 1,
2013, as its new harvest starts will have fallen to 1.0 million tonnes from 5.4
million tonnes in January 2012, Oil World estimates.
Argentina’s soybean stocks on Mar.
1, 2013, as its later harvest approaches will fall 2.3 million tonnes from 3.6
million tonnes a year previously, it forecast.
