Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - World stocks fell on Tuesday, extending losses as U.S. stocks reversed gains on worries that the United States could fall back into recession due to looming spending cuts and tax rises if Congress does not act, and the euro weakened as Greece faced delays in winning more aid.

The euro hit a more than two-month low against the dollar and a one-month trough versus the yen on concern about the delays in aid for debt-burdened Greece and on uncertainty about whether Spain will seek a bailout.

Worries about Greece and Spain have caused the euro to lose value against the safe-haven dollar in seven of the last nine trading sessions. So far in November, the euro has fallen 1.9 percent against the dollar and 1.7 percent against the yen.

In late trading, the euro EUR= was slightly lower at $1.2704, after earlier trading as low as $1.2660, its lowest level since Sept. 7.

Greece's international lenders gave the country more time to fix its budget, though they did not disburse the aid Greece had hoped to use to refinance 5 billion euros of its debt by Friday.

A public clash between Greece's international lenders over how Athens can bring its debts down to a sustainable level has fueled fears that Europe's troubles could flare up anew.

"When those overseeing resolution to the euro zone crisis continue to disagree, it becomes very difficult to instill confidence in investors," said Sean Cotton, foreign exchange adviser at Bank of the West in San Ramon, California.

On Wall Street, equities sold off late in the session, led by a slide in Microsoft, although retailers were a notable bright spot after Home Depot, the world's largest home improvement chain, raised its outlook.

"Stocks opened with a boost of upside energy, but when there was no follow-through by late morning, players just took some chips off the table to wait for tomorrow's retail sales figures and any developments in the fiscal cliff negotiations," said John Canavan, market analyst at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey.

The market is grappling with how a divided U.S. Congress will deal with the series of mandated tax hikes and spending cuts that start to take effect next year and could take the world's largest economy back into recession. However, serious negotiations are still weeks away, analysts said.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 58.90 points, or 0.46 percent, at 12,756.18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 5.50 points, or 0.40 percent, at 1,374.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 20.37 points, or 0.70 percent, at 2,883.89.

The release of October U.S. retail sales on Wednesday is expected to offer key insights into how consumer spending is shaping up for the fourth quarter, said Deutsche Bank Securities chief U.S. economist Joseph LaVorgna.

Dow component Home Depot Inc HD.N raised its full-year outlook and cited an improving housing market as it reported quarterly results. Its stock rose 3.6 percent to finish at $63.38.

Microsoft MSFT.O shares fell 3.2 percent to $27.09 after the surprising departure of a key executive, who analysts said was the driving force behind the company's biggest product.

The risk aversion gripping investors boosted U.S. Treasuries, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note up 6/32, and its yield easing to 1.59 percent.

A weak German ZEW sentiment survey heightened concerns about the impact of the euro zone crisis on Europe's largest economy and knocked the euro earlier in the session.

The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 pan-European index closed up 4.81 points, or 0.44 percent, at 1,099.16. Spain's IBEX index .IBEX rallied 1.7 percent, while its bond yields eased slightly

Brent crude oil LCOc1 slipped $0.89 to $108.18 a barrel, falling for a second day on worries about demand growth in a well-supplied market as the United States and Europe grapple with fragile economies.

Platinum group metals rose sharply after a forecast that production outages earlier this year could create a supply deficit, while gold traded flat as investors awaited more clarifications on Greek aid by the euro zone.

Spot gold XAU= eased 0.1 percent to $1,725.94 an ounce.

U.S. COMEX gold futures for December delivery GCZ2 settled down $6.10 at $1,724.80 an ounce, preliminary Reuters data showed.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged lower on Tuesday in choppy trading, a second consecutive decline, pressured by concerns about weak demand in a well-supplied market as the United States and Europe struggle to bolster fragile economies.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed mixed, with the front two contracts rebounding to close higher on firm cash markets and slowed farmer offerings, traders said.

* Spot November soybeans SX2 rallied 1.1 percent ahead of the contract's expiration on Wednesday.

• The benchmark January contract SF3 rallied after dipping below psychological support at $14.00 per bushel for the first time since June.

• Soybeans Sc1 had dropped more than 6 percent since the U.S. Department of Agriculture surprised traders on Friday by raising its estimate for U.S. soybean production above trade expectations.

• Market rebounded on strengthening cash values as the drop in futures halted farmer soybean sales. Spot basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast firmed on strong exporter demand, mostly for near term shipments amid concerns of a slowdown or halt to barge traffic on the mid-Mississippi River.
• USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 64.065 million bushels, topping trade expectations for 53 million to 59 million bushels.

• Soymeal futures closed higher, regaining ground against soyoil on meal/oil spreads.

• Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association on Wednesday to report the October U.S. soybean crush at 147.713 million bushels, up from NOPA's September figure of 119.732 million. Estimates ranged from 138.0 million to 153.0 million bushels.

• The Chinese government will start stockpiling soy and corn from local farmers at higher prices than a year ago, an industry source said on Tuesday, a move set to stabilize domestic prices and support soy imports.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures recovered after falling to their lowest in three years on Monday, as a rise in Malaysian palm oil stocks in October missed market expectations and signalled a slowdown in inventory buildup.

Prices fell to 2,220 ringgit ($725) per tonne before the midday break, a level last seen in November 2009, tracking steep drops in Dalian soybean oil and U.S. soybeans after a larger-than-expected production forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Friday.

But the benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 0.4 percent at 2,324 ringgit after industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported a 1.1 percent increase in palm oil stocks to a record 2.51 million tonnes.

The rise missed market expectations that stocks in the world's No.2 palm oil producer likely climbed 7.5 percent to 2.67 million tonnes.

"It is very bullish. Nobody expected this figure. Nobody. We were expecting a bigger glut than usual in stocks," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Total traded volumes stood at 48,969 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots despite expectations for a quiet market ahead of the Diwali and Awal Muharram holidays in Malaysia this week.

Market participants will be looking out for Malaysia's Nov. 1-10 exports data from Societe Generale de Surveillance later, after another cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported on Saturday a 16 percent rise from the previous month.
In a bearish sign for palm oil, crude oil eased towards $109 per barrel on Monday, as concerns about the looming U.S. fiscal cliff and weak economic data from Japan offset signs that Chinese oil demand grew last month.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 was down 0.7 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 3.9 percent lower, after earlier hitting its 4-percent daily limit.

REGIONAL EQUITY- Nov 13 (Reuters) - Thai shares fell to their two-week low on Tuesday on concerns about the U.S. fiscal cliff and about the Greece's debt crisis, while the Philippines and Vietnam stocks also ended weaker.

Major Southeast Asian stock markets in Singapore .FTSTI, Indonesia .JKSE and Malaysia .KLSE were closed for a public holiday.

Thailand's broader stock index .SETI fell 0.4 percent to its lowest since Oct. 29, while the Philippines .PSI and Vietnam .VNI lost 0.3 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, in thin volume.

"Global concerns due to U.S. fiscal cliff and Greece's debt problem are the main factors," said Pichai Lertsupongkit, head of investment advisory services at Thanachart Securities.

"The markets will be waiting to see directions from the fiscal cliff and Greece's debt issue and we might see sideway movements until then."

In Hanoi, shares in several Vietnam-listed property companies fell on concerns over bad debt, and analysts expect further fall in the real estate stocks.