Friday, November 30, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday after comments from House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, on a possible compromise to avoid the "fiscal cliff" turned the market around.

The S&P 500 rebounded from a 1 percent decline, gaining more than 20 points from its low after Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said he was optimistic that a budget deal to avoid big spending cuts and tax hikes can be worked out. President Barack Obama added to the good feelings, saying he hoped to get a deal done in the next four weeks.

 
"The fiscal cliff is dominating the discussion, and short term, we’re a little bit too optimistic on it being fixed right away," said John Manley, chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in New York.

In expectation of higher dividend tax rates in 2013, companies have been shifting dividends or announcing special payouts to shareholders.

 
The market's move marked the second straight day where a leading legislator dictated trading action. On Tuesday, stocks fell on pessimistic remarks from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat from Nevada.

The market has been swinging for weeks now on headlines from Washington, with Wednesday's gyrations once again highlighting the importance that Wall Street is giving to finding a solution to avoid the series of tax increases and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy into recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 106.98 points, or 0.83 percent, to 12,985.11 at the close. The S&P 500 .SPX gained 10.99 points, or 0.79 percent, to 1,409.93. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 23.99 points, or 0.81 percent, to close at 2,991.78.

The S&P 500 bounced off a strong support area near 1,385 that includes both its 200- and 14-day moving averages. It closed above 1,400 for the third session in four - an optimistic sign for stock bulls.
The S&P retail index .SPXRT gained 1.4 percent.

 
Nearly 6.1 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average so far this year of about 6.48 billion shares.

On the NYSE, roughly seven stocks rose for every three that fell, and on Nasdaq, five issues rose for every three that fell.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell a third straight session on Wednesday as concerns about fuel demand outweighed optimism about a potential deal to resolve the U.S. budget crisis.

U.S. January crude CLc1 fell 69 cents, or 0.79 percent, to settle at $86.49 a barrel, having traded from $85.36 to $87.34.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 0.2 percent, stalling a three-day rally as traders booked profits after the spot January contract reached a 2-1/2 week high.

* USDA confirmed sales of 290,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13.

 
• Concerns about excessive rains delaying soybean planting in Argentina underpinned the market. John Dee, meteorologist for Global Weather Monitoring, said rain was likely Thursday and Friday and again through much of next week.

• Crop weather in Brazil was mostly satisfactory, but some southern areas could use more rain, Dee said.

• Logistical jams and transportation delays anticipated in Brazil early next year will likely slow the flow of a record soybean crop to buyers around the world who are counting on South America to fill the gap left by drought in the United States.

• Rabobank said in an annual outlook that it expected CBOT soybean prices to average $14.75 a bushel in the first quarter of calendar year 2013 before sliding almost 12 percent to $13 in the fourth quarter.

 
• Cash basis offers for soymeal softened at a few locations in the interior U.S. Midwest as recent gains in CBOT futures chilled demand from livestock and poultry producers.

 
• Trade expects USDA's weekly export sales report on Thursday to show sales of U.S. soybeans at 500,000 to 750,000 tonnes, soymeal sales at 150,000 to 250,000 and soyoil sales at 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes.
• January soybeans SF3 face technical resistance at their 200-day moving average of $14.59. The contract's nine-day relative strength index stood at 51 after the close, in neutral technical territory.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures eased on Wednesday, dropping for a second straight session on concerns that U.S. fiscal woes could hamper global economic growth and commodity demand.

Prices touched their highest in almost a week on Tuesday as a Greek debt deal provided brief comfort for investors, but lack of progress in U.S. budget talks and speculation that Malaysian palm oil inventories could hit a record high this month kept prices in a tight range.

"The market looks like it's expected to just stay rangebound this week," said a Singapore-based trader with a global commodities trading house. "But for the longer term, sentiment has improved, compared to a month ago."

The benchmark February contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.7 percent to close at 2,394 ringgit ($784) per tonne. Prices traded in a range of 2,383 to 2,417 ringgit.

Total traded volumes stood at 31,818 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Technicals showed mixed signals for palm oil, but it is biased to drop to 2,353 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Malaysian palm oil stocks hit a record high in October at 2.51 million tonnes on seasonally high production. While some traders said slower output this month may ease pressure on the stockbuild, concerns remained that export demand might not be enough to reduce stocks.

Cargo surveyors showed a slight drop in shipments in the first 25 days of November from a month ago.
The European Commission has made public a decision taken last week to allow palm oil producers under the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil scheme to qualify for biofuel subsidies, a move that could spur more European demand for the tropical oil.

In other markets, Brent oil slipped on Wednesday as investors nervously eyed talks to head off a looming fiscal disaster in the United States, the world's top oil consumer.

The U.S. budget woes also weighed on other vegetable oil markets. U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 fell 0.7 percent in early trade. The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.4 percent lower.

The market also took note of Olam International's OLAM.SI detailed defence on Wednesday against short-seller Muddy Waters' attacks on its accounting practices and acquisitions, emphasising it was not at risk of insolvency.

Shares of the Singapore commodities firm tumbled as much as 6 percent to a three-and-a-half year low, but later recouped some losses.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Philippine index closed at a record high on Wednesday amid good buying interest in large caps, following stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP growth, while Indonesia fell for a second session as market players cashed in on recent gainers.

In Manila, the index .PSI rose 0.9 percent to 5,633.72, scaling a record for the fourth session. The Philippine economy grew a faster-than-expected 7.1 percent in the September quarter, reflecting strong domestic demand and government spending.

"The Philippines is having a fantastic year despite strong global headwinds. Most nations in Asia saw a tough third quarter while the Philippines had the fastest GDP expansion since 2010," HSBC said in a report.

"This is largely due to the fact that policy makers took timely measures to counterbalance an anticipated slowdown of demand from China and the Eurozone as well as the resilient nature of the services-oriented economy," it said

In a choppy session, Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE ended down 0.8 percent at its lowest close in more than three weeks, led by a 5 percent fall in PT Astra International Tbk ASII.JK.

Astra shares, a proxy of Indonesia's consumer sector, had gained almost 2 percent last week versus a 0.05 percent loss of the broader market.