Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks jumped on Tuesday as American voters went to the polls, with the U.S. presidential election keeping trade subdued while the euro held steady despite uncertainty over Greece's next financial aid payment.

Polls indicated President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney remained in a neck-and-neck race, although the Democratic incumbent had a slight edge in several key swing states.

The general view on Wall Street is that a Romney win would favor stocks due to the perception his policies are pro-business, while another Obama term would favor bonds due to views his policies would keep interest rates low.

Analysts downplayed the stock market's advance as traders' betting on a Romney victory.

Economists have said the spending cuts and tax hikes could ignite a new recession in the world's biggest economy, while Europe continued to struggle with a prolonged debt crisis that has hurt regional growth.

There is no clear consensus in financial markets on whether Obama or Romney could reach a timely deal with leaders of the opposing party to avoid the fiscal cliff.

The winner will also decide who will head the Federal Reserve. There has been speculation Chairman Ben Bernanke, whose term expires in January 2014, might not want to serve another term. Romney has said he will not reappoint Bernanke.

On below-average volume, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI closed up 133.24 points, or 1.02 percent, at 13,245.68. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX ended up 11.13 points, or 0.79 percent, at 1,428.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC finished up 12.27 points, or 0.41 percent, at 3,011.93.

Top European shares .FTEU3 closed 0.56 percent higher, rebounding from Monday's losses, boosted by strength in the technology and travel and leisure sectors.

World stocks on the MSCI global index .MIWD00000PUS ended 0.62 percent higher after back-to-back losing sessions.

Developments in Greece were also keenly followed. The Greek parliament will vote o n W ednesday on 13.5 billion euros of fresh spending cuts and tax hikes that are crucial to unlocking 31.5 billion euros in aid. There will be a follow-up vote on Sun day on an austerity budget for 2013.

The euro recovered against the dollar at $1.2813, little changed on the day, after the single currency fell to a two-month low at $1.2764 EUR=.

The dollar retreated from a two-month high against a basket of major currencies .DXY. The dollar index slipped 0.18 percent at 80.611. FRX/

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures surged more than 3 percent on Tuesday, rallying for a second straight session and receiving a lift from gains on Wall Street and a weaker dollar as investors awaited election results.

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.8 percent, halting a two-day slide, on firm cash markets and technical buying, including positioning ahead of a monthly U.S. government crop report later this week, traders said.

* Soymeal and soyoil followed soybeans higher.
* Spot cash basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to theU.S. Gulf Coast were steady to firm early on
    Tuesday, reflecting slow farmer sales and solid export demand.

• Soybeans were due for a bounce after the January contract fell 3.6 percent in the previous two sessions, the biggest two-day fall in three weeks.
• Argentina’s 2013 soybean crop may be 3 million to 6 million tonnes below earlier forecasts of 55 million to 56 million tonnes as repeated rain is disrupting sowings in the country - oilseed analysts Oil World.

• European Union farmers are likely to expand rapeseed sowings by about 7 percent for the 2013 harvest, partly at the expense of wheat - Oil World.

• Analysts expect USDA to raise its estimate of the U.S. 2012 soybean crop in a monthly report on Friday, but any rise in production should be met by strong demand for the oilseed.

FCPO - SINGAPORE, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell to the lowest in almost one month on Tuesday, dropping for a third straight session, as concerns over rising stockpiles and uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections weighed on prices.

Inventory levels in Malaysia - the world's No.2 palm oil producer - may climb to 2.67 million tonnes in October, surpassing previous month's record at 2.48 million tonnes, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.

Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will issue October stocks data on the coming Monday.

"Everybody is looking at the MPOB number that is expected to reach 2.7 million tonnes, and the market is reacting badly to that," said James Ratnam, an analyst with Malaysia's TA Securities.

The benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.6 percent to close at 2,372 ringgit ($775) per tonne, just off its intraday low at 2,370 ringgit, the weakest since Oct. 8.

Total traded volumes stood at 34,020 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Prices had edged up briefly before the midday break as an almost 5 percent drop over the last two trading sessions lured buyers. Worries that year-end floods in Malaysia could hit supplies also checked losses.

Traders also remained cautious ahead of the U.S. elections.

President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney were essentially deadlocked on election eve, polls show, raising concerns of a cliffhanger delaying the outcome and roiling markets, as it did during the extended presidential battle in 2000.

Technicals showed palm oil could stage a rebound to 2,470 ringgit as a fall from the Oct. 25 high of 2,615 ringgit has temporarily ended, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Regional Equity - BANGKOK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Malaysian shares fell for the third straight session to touch their five-week lows on Tuesday, and most other Southeast Asian stock markets pulled into negative territory in sluggish market turnover ahead of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

Telecoms were underperformers on Malaysia's benchmark index .KLSE after several brokers downgraded the sector due to its rich valuations, said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Maxis MXSC.KL, Axiata Group AXIA.KL and Digi.Com DSOM.KL, which comprise a combined 16 percent of the index, fell 2.5 percent, 2 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively.

Singapore's Straits Times index .FTSTI fell to the lowest close since Sept. 11. Thai index .SETI was down 0.5 percent with energy stocks such as PTT PTT.BK remaining weak as uncertainty ahead of the U.S. elections weighed on global oil market.

Among bright spots, the Philippine index .PSI edged up 0.3 percent, led higher by a 1.2 percent gain by the biggest firm by value, Philippine Long Distance Telephone (PLDT) TEL.PS. PLDT posted flat quarterly profit growth on Tuesday.