SAO PAULO, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Brazil
will produce a record 82.7 million tonnes of soybeans this season due to a
hefty expansion in planted area, the government said on Wednesday, raising its
forecast by 0.12 percent from a December estimate.
Brazil has been the world's No. 2
soybean grower in recent years but could surpass the United States in
production of the oilseed this season with an expected rebound from a disappointing
66.4 million tonne crop in 2011/12.
With the harvest just beginning in
some areas of the country, Brazil's area planted with soy will likely increase
by 9.2 percent from last year to 27.34 million hectares, slightly above the
27.24 million hectares estimated in December by Conab, the government's food
supply agency.
"An increase in area cultivated
is observed in all producing areas of the country, especially in Mato
Grosso," Conab said, referring to Brazil's top producing state in its
fourth official forecast report on the crop.
But the agency lowered its forecast
for soy field productivity by 0.33 percent from December to 3.02 tonnes per
hectare, as producers in the region reported irregular yields from the state
where some 1 percent of the crop has been harvested.
"We have reports of producers
collecting 34 bags per hectare and reports of harvests yielding 54 bags per
hectare," said Nery Ribas, technical director of the Association of Soy
Producers of Mato Grosso.
Mato Grosso received below-average
rainfall in October and December, though rains were ample in the key month of
November. The agriculture ministry said now that seeds have germinated, rains
actually need to stop in Mato Grosso to allow harvesting and prevent disease
and fungi taking hold.
"There's neither an excess nor
a shortage of rain," in Mato Grosso and the Center West, Neri Geller,
secretary for agricultural policy at the agriculture ministry, said at a news
conference.
Unlike last season, No. 2 and No. 3
producing states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, which start harvesting later
than Mato Grosso, have also received sufficient rains. Frontier farms in the
Northeast have received almost no rainfall in recent months.
Conab also raised its corn forecast
by 0.42 percent from December to 72.2 million tonnes. That would be just
slightly below last season's record 73 million tonne corn crop.
The corn forecast is above the U.S.
Agriculture Department forecast of 70 million tonnes. Conab's soybean forecast
is also above the USDA's expected 81 million tonnes.
Conab representatives justified
their strong corn forecast by saying farmers are sacrificing area planted with
wheat in order to plant corn, although the area planted with corn is not
expected to increase as much as that of soy.
U.S.-based crop forecaster Lanworth
on Wednesday raised its estimate for Brazil's corn crop to 76 million tonnes
from 73.9 million tonnes previously due to larger-than-expected planted area.
Wheat production, which was hurt by
heavy rains during the harvest period, was forecast to fall to 4.3 million
tonnes. That is down from Conab's forecast for 4.46 million tonnes from
December and 24.6 percent off last year's crop.
Millers have said Brazil, one of the
world's largest wheat importers, will have to buy more wheat from the Northern
Hemisphere this year due to a weak crop from neighboring Argentina and its own
disappointing harvest.
Brazil has already exported more
corn than ever before from the 2011/12 crop, an estimated 21.5 million tonnes
according to Conab. That is more than Argentina, usually the world's No. 2
exporter, will sell abroad from its 2011/12 crop, according to some private
estimates.
Brazilian corn exports will likely
fall to 15 million tonnes from the 2012/13 crop, however, Conab said. Soybean
exports will increase to 36.41 million tonnes, up from 32.47 million tonnes
shipped from the last crop and helping fill low global stocks.
Brazil, an agricultural powerhouse
that is poised to take on a larger share of the world's food production, will
likely produce a cotton lint crop of 1.4 million tonnes, down from 1.9 million
tonnes last year , Conab said.
Conab's report initially pushed
Chicago soybean and corn future prices down, with traders betting bumper crops
from South America would reduce demand for U.S. supplies.
March corn later rose 0.25 percent
while March soybeans weakened 0.05 percent.
