HAMBURG, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Oilseeds analyst Oil World said
it has cut its forecasts for the 2013 soybean harvest in Argentina by 1 million
tonnes because of unfavourably dry weather but has raised its forecast of
Brazil's crop by 0.5 million tonnes.
Oil World now forecasts Argentina will harvest 52.0 million
tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 53 million tonnes it forecast in
December and 56 million tonnes in October but still up from 39.9 million tonnes
Argentina harvested in early 2012.
Hamburg-based Oil World said on Tuesday it has raised its
forecast of Brazil’s 2013 crop to 81.5 million tonnes from 81.0 million tonnes
forecast in December and up from 66.8 million tonnes Brazil harvested in early
2012 because of more positive weather in the country.
Big South American harvests are needed in early 2013 to
relieve the tight global soybean market, where the U.S. is carrying the major
burden of meeting global export demand.
Soybean prices hit record highs in September 2012 as
drought ravaged the U.S. crop after poor Argentine and Brazilian harvests.
Prices later fell back as the U.S. harvest turned out better than feared and
big South American crops in early 2013 may relieve world supplies.
Oil World’s forecast is more pessimistic than official
estimates of the crop in Argentina, the world’s third largest soybean exporter
after the United States and Brazil. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Jan.
11 forecast Argentina’s 2013 soybean crop at 54.0 million tonnes. Argentina’s government expects at least a 55 million tonne crop.
Argentina had hot and dry weather in the second half of
December and early January with some soybean regions receiving only 10-20
percent of normal rain volumes, Oil World said.
“If the dryness continues until early February, soybeans
and other summer crops will be stressed and the yield potential reduced,” it
said.
Brazil’s weather has been more favourable and Oil World had
said on Jan. 15 the country’s soybean crop could exceed 81 million tonnes.
Chicago March soybeans rose nearly 4 percent
last week, partly because of concern about Argentina’s crop.
“The weather conditions in Argentina in coming weeks will
determine whether the current risk premium on prices must be raised further or
whether we will experience seasonal supply and price pressure with fund
liquidation,” Oil World said.
