Friday, February 22, 2013

Trader's highlight

Dow Jones - NEW YORK, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell for a second straight day on Thursday and the S&P 500 posted its worst two-day loss since November after reports cast doubt over the health of the U.S. and euro-zone economies.

But a late-day rally helped stocks erase some of their losses with most of the pullback concentrated in the technology- heavy Nasdaq. The move suggested investors were still willing to buy on dips even after the sharp losses in the last session.

In Europe, business activity indexes dealt a blow to hopes that the euro zone might emerge from recession soon, showing the downturn across the region's businesses unexpectedly grew worse this month.

"The PMI numbers out of Europe were really a blow to the market," said Jack De Gan, chief investment officer at Harbor Advisory in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. "The market was expecting signs that recovery is still there, but the numbers just highlighted that the euro-zone problem is still persistent."

U.S. initial claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its index of business conditions in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region fell in February to the lowest in eight months. 

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 46.92 points, or 0.34 percent, to 13,880.62 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 9.53 points, or 0.63 percent, to 1,502.42. The Nasdaq Composite Index  dropped 32.92 points, or 1.04 percent, to close at 3,131.49.

The two-day decline marked the U.S. stock market's first sustained pullback this year. The Standard & Poor's 500 has fallen 1.8 percent over the period and just managed to hold the 1,500 level on Thursday. Still, the index is up 5.3 percent so far this year.

The abrupt reversal in markets, which started on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting suggested stimulus measures may end earlier than thought, looks set to halt a seven-week winning streak for stocks that had lifted the Dow and the S&P 500 close to all-time highs.

Wall Street will soon face another test with the upcoming debate in Washington over the automatic across-the-board spending cuts put in place as part of a larger congressional budget fight. Those cuts, set to kick in on March 1 unless lawmakers agree on an alternative, could depress the economy.

Of the 427 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results so far, 69.3 percent have exceeded analysts' expectations, compared with a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters, according to Thomson Reuters data through Thursday morning.

Fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to have risen 5.9 percent, according to the data, above a 1.9 percent forecast at the start of the earnings season.

About two stocks fell for everyone that rose on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. About 7.64 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, well above the 20-day moving average of around 6.6 billion shares.


Brent Crude Oil - NEW YORK, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures fell more than 1 percent on Thursday, pressured by weak economic data and the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve might curb its economic stimulus program.

Brent April crude fell $2.07, or 1.79 percent, to settle at $113.53 a barrel, having traded from $113.32 to $115.31.


CBOT SoybeanSoybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose for a fourth straight session, with front months gaining against back months on fresh export demand for dwindling supplies of old-crop U.S. soybeans, traders said.    

* USDA said private exporters reported the sale of 130,450 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations, including 75,450 tonnes for 2012/13 delivery and 55,000 tonnes for 2013/14.
 
·         Trade talk swirled that China has bought up to nine   cargoes of old-crop U.S. soybeans, including some of which were switched to the United States from Brazilian origin.

 
·         Further support stems from concern about grain shipping  delays in Brazil, where two to three times more ships are lined   up to load at the country's two main ports than a year earlier, and a six-hour dock workers strike is set for Friday.

·         Soymeal follows soybeans, gaining against soyoil on  meal/oil spreads on ideas that port congestion and logistics  issues in South America will boost export demand for U.S. soybeans and meal.

·         Trade expects USDA's weekly export sales report on Friday  to show U.S. soybean sales in the latest week at 300,000 to  600,000 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), and soymeal  sales at 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes. 
 
·         CBOT March options expire on Friday and traders are eyeing  open interest in calls at the $15.00 strike, which could act as   a magnet drawing futures prices to that level.
 
·         CBOT March soybeans trading above all key moving averages; traders eyeing psychological resistance at $15.00.


BMD CPO - KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped on Thursday, tracking weak U.S. and China vegetable oil markets and as investors booked profits from prices which have gained almost two percent so far this week.

U.S. soy prices slid on Thursday from a selloff in commodities amid speculation that a hedge fund had been forced to liquidate assets, rattling sentiment across major commodity markets and weighing on palm prices.

But major losses in palm oil were prevented by hopes that seasonally slowing output in Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer, will help ease stocks despite sluggish exports.

"At the end of the month exports may be slightly down compared to January, but it will not have much impact because production is slowing by more than ten percent," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"I think there will be a slight drawdown in end-stocks again," the trader added. Inventory levels in January had inched down 1.9 percent from record highs of 2.63 million tonnes.

"For today, the immediate support is 2,500 ringgit and resistance is 2,550 ringgit. There is a bit of profit taking and market correction."

The benchmark May contract  on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slipped 1.1 percent to close at 2,536 ringgit ($814) per tonne. Prices traded in a tight range between 2,513 and 2,543 ringgit.

Total traded volumes stood at 16,996 lots of 25 tonnes each, lower than the typical 25,000 tonnes.

Technicals showed a bullish target at 2,620 ringgit per tonne will only be valid when Malaysian palm oil climbs above a resistance at 2,593 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Palm oil products shipped in the first twenty days of the month showed signs of slowing down from robust exports in earlier weeks, cargo surveyors data showed on Wednesday.

Oil extended the previous session's decline on Thursday to a three-week low on concern the U.S. Federal Reserve might stop its stimulus program sooner than thought and on the prospect of a rise in Saudi Arabian oil output.

In other vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil for May delivery fell 0.4 percent in early Asian trade. The most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 1.4 percent lower.


Regional EquitiesFeb 21 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets mostly fell on Wednesday with Indonesia coming off record high close and Thailand retreating from a 19-year high, on worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve could prematurely wind down its bond-buying programme.

The minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed many officials voiced concern over potential costs of more asset purchases, suggesting that the programme, known as QE, may slow before the pick-up in hiring it was intended to deliver.

Indonesia , after hitting a record high of 4,656.13 points in intraday trading, ended tad weaker, falling 0.04 percent to 4,632.04 from the previous day's all-time closing high, led by mining and finance shares.
Jakarta also enjoyed a net foreign inflow of $78.5 million on Thursday.

Thailand  fell 1.2 percent to 1528.74 from a 19-year high, led by 2.3 percent fall in top energy firm PTT PCL .

Singapore  fell 0.64 percent, weighed by a 2.7 percent fall in property developer CapitaLand Ltd after it posted a 45 percent drop in fourth-quarter net profit.

Vietnam , the region's best performer, plummeted as much as 3.7 percent to close at a near four-week low led by banks.

Bucking the trend, the Philippine index  hit a record closing high of 6,667.41 points with a 0.28 percent gain, while Malaysia's edged up marginally with a 0.04 percent gain helped by $17.96 million net foreign buying.


FOREX - NEW YORK, Feb 21 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a six-week low against the dollar and a three-week trough against the yen on Thursday, pressured by disappointing euro zone economic data and by uncertainty ahead of Italy's election at the weekend.

The dollar rose to a 5-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies, a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting bolstered expectations the central bank may pull back from its bond-buying program sooner rather than later.

The downturn in the euro zone worsened unexpectedly this month, especially in France. The weak data kept alive chances of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in coming months.

"Today's data stands in sharp contrast to the consensus market expectations that the region will see turnaround in growth as soon as Q1 of this year," said Boris Schlossberg Managing Director of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.

Concerns that a fragmented parliament after Italy's national election could trigger a sell-off in the peripheral euro zone bond market also weighed on the euro.

Nichi Vendola, leader of the Left Ecology Freedom party (SEL) and frontrunner in polls for Italy's election, said the country should seek revisions of European Union budget rules.

That raised fears that Vendola will push a centre-left government too far to the left and prevent a coalition agreement with outgoing Prime Minister Mario Monti, which is seen as the most market-friendly election outcome.