Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Feb 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rebounded from their worst decline since November on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the Fed's bond-buying stimulus and sales of new homes hit a 4 1/2-year high.

The S&P 500 had climbed 6 percent for the year and came within reach of all-time highs before the minutes from the Fed's January meeting were released last Wednesday. Since then, the benchmark S&P 500 has fallen 1 percent.

Bernanke, in testimony on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee, strongly defended the Fed's bond-buying stimulus program and quieted rumblings that the central bank may pull back from its stimulative policy measures, which were sparked by the release of the Fed minutes last week.

Bernanke's comments helped ease investors' concerns about a stalemate in Italy after a general election failed to give any party a parliamentary majority, posing the threat of prolonged instability and financial crisis in Europe, and sending the S&P 500 to its worst decline since Nov. 7 in Monday's session.

Bernanke "certainly said everything the market needed to feel in order to get comfortable again," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.

"The fear is we were going to see a rollover, and the first shot over the bow was what we saw out of Italy yesterday with the elections," Kenny said. "When it came to U.S. markets, we saw some of that bleeding stop because our focus shifted from the Italian political circus to Ben Bernanke."

Economic reports that showed strength in housing and consumer confidence also supported stocks. U.S. home prices rose more than expected in December, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Consumer confidence rebounded in February, jumping more than expected, and new-home sales rose to their highest in 4-1/2 years in January.

However, the central bank chairman also urged lawmakers to avoid sharp spending cuts set to go into effect on Friday, which he warned could combine with earlier tax increases to create a "significant headwind" for the economic recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 115.96 points, or 0.84 percent, to 13,900.13 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 9.09 points, or 0.61 percent, to 1,496.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index  advanced 13.40 points, or 0.43 percent, to close at 3,129.65.

Despite the bounce, the S&P 500 was unable to move back above 1,500, a closely watched level that was technical support until recently, but could now serve as a resistance point.

The CBOE Volatility Index  or the VIX, a barometer of investor anxiety, dropped 11.2 percent, a day after surging 34 percent, its biggest percentage jump since Aug. 18, 2011.

The uncertainty caused by the Italian elections continued to weigh on stocks in Europe. The FTSEurofirst-300 index of top European shares closed down 1.4 percent. The benchmark Italian index tumbled 4.9 percent.


Brent Crude Oil - NEW YORK, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil futures fell $1.73, or 1.51 percent, to settle at $112.71 a barrel on Tuesday as inconclusive Italian election results revived investor concerns about instability in the euro zone and threatened the outlook for fuel demand.



CBOT Soybean Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a third day on pressure from the expanding Brazilian soybean harvest and market participants exiting long soybean/short corn spreads, traders said.


* Unconfirmed talk that China may sell 1 million to 2.5 million tonnes soybeans out of reserves to ease supplies until Brazilian shipments arrive.
 
·         Soymeal futures closed higher while soyoil sank for a  fifth day, with March soyoil briefly dropping below 49  cents per lb, its lowest level since Dec. 31.

 
·         The European Union is likely to raise soymeal imports in  coming months as supplies from large harvests in Argentina and  Brazil come on to the global market - analysts Oil World.
 
·         Palm oil’s competitive price against other vegetable oils   means palm is likely to win more sales in coming months in  markets including India, Europe, China and even the United  States - Oil World. 
 
·         Germany’s 2013 rapeseed crop is likely to rise to 5.3   million tonnes from 5.0 million tonnes in 2012, the German Farm Cooperatives Association said.


BMD CPO - KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped on Tuesday to their lowest in more than five weeks, as weak overseas vegetable oil markets kept investors on edge, although upbeat export data and slowing production helped limit losses.

China and U.S. soy markets, which are tracked by palm, remained weak after suffering steep falls on Monday and as better weather in the U.S. Midwest and South America improved the prospects for supply.

But stronger-than-expected exports in the first 25 days of February, buoyed by increased shipments of Malaysian palm oil products to Europe and India, kept prices from tumbling further.

"The market is a little oversold at the current juncture after a slew of negative news from pundits and analysts," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The external market 'grains' are a major contributor to the current low prices. We anticipate demand to pick up very soon, and prices to recover once the selling pressure subside."

The USDA outlook numbers, with projections of a record soybean crop at 3.4 billion bushels, are bearish, he added. "This certainly spells trouble for palm oil in the second quarter of 2013."

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had dipped to 2,411 ringgit per tonne, the lowest since Jan. 21, before closing at 2,417 ringgit ($779), a fall of 2.2 percent.

Total traded volume stood at 35,620 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the average 25,000 lots.

Investors are pinning hopes on healthy exports alongside seasonally slowing production to ease the current stockpile of 2.58 million tonnes in Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer.

"At the end of the month we might see an 18 percent drop in production. And with this kind of exports, we will definitely see a drawdown in the stocks," said a trader who deals with a foreign commodities brokerage.

Oil fell below $114 a barrel on Tuesday, hit by doubts over demand growth as a potential political vacuum in Italy revived concern over instability in the debt-plagued euro zone. 

In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil for May delivery fell 1.3 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange slipped 1.5 percent.


Regional Equities - BANGKOK, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Tuesday on profit-booking in recent gainers such as PT Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk  and Ayala Land Inc after Italy's inconclusive election fuelled concerns of a resurgent euro zone debt crisis.

Jakarta's Composite Index  lost 0.7 percent to 4,663.03 with Bank Mandiri fell 0.5 percent after Monday's 2.1 percent gain on strong results.

The Philippines  slid 1.4 percent to 6,630.67 as large cap Ayala Land declined 3.5 percent.

Indonesia and the Philippines both hit record closes on Monday, making them among overbought markets, with the 14-day relative strength index ending at 72.4 and 70.2, respectively, on Tuesday. The level of 70 or above indicates a market is overbought.

Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 1.1 percent to a one-month low of 3,254.26 on heavy volume of 3.3 times a monthly average, led by a 6.6 percent drop in shares of Global Logistic Properties Ltd .

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index dropped 3.9 percent, its biggest one day loss since August.

Malaysia's main index eased 0.2 percent to 1,624.18, with retail and domestic institution selling shares worth $14.8 million and $26.7 million, respectively, countering foreign buying on the day, stock exchange data showed.

Thai SET index  finished down 0.6 percent at 1,530.32. Top energy firm PTT Pcl  fell 1.4 percent after it reported a weaker-than-expected net profit for the fourth quarter.

More than 70 stocks were trading at high valuations, about 40 times price to earnings multiple, Thai stock exchange president Charamporn Jotikasthira said.