BUENOS AIRES, March 1 (Reuters) - Argentina's
2012/13 soy harvest should reach at least 50 million tonnes, more than recent
estimates by local grain exchanges, as yields in early seeded crops beat
expectations, an Argentine analyst said on Friday.
The South American country is the world as No.
3 soybean supplier and its top exporter of soyoil and soymeal. A lack of rain
since the start of the year has driven global prices higher, although recent
showers have brought relief.
According to analyst Pablo Adreani, head of the
Agripac consultancy, soy crops planted early in the season have not been as
badly affected by weeks of hot, dry weather as later-planted crops due to
plentiful rains last year.
"The situation is much better than last year.
The early-planted beans and corn look excellent with yields that could probably
reach the record," Adreani told the Reuters Ags Forum, an online chatroom
for grain traders.
Drought hit Argentina's crops in the previous
2011/12 season and soy production was a weak 40.1 million tonnes. Corn output
was 21 million tonnes.
Adreani said yields in Santa Fe province, one of the
country's biggest grain producers, are coming in above 3.0 tonnes per hectare
in early planted beans, about 15-20 percent more than during last year's
harvest.
He said farmers were about to start gathering crops
in the main agriculture belt, estimating that they would sell about 15 million
tonnes of grain in the next 45 days.
"After that, farmers will sit on the beans and
they will only sell in a drip-drop way to meet some commercial
commitments," he said.
Earlier this week, Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut
its estimate for the soy harvest to 48.5 million tonnes. Rosario grains
exchange expects production of 48 million tonnes.
With regard to the upcoming wheat campaign, which
will begin in May, Adreani said government export curbs could cause another
disappointing season by deterring farmers from planting.
Last season, growers produced 9.8 million tonnes of
wheat, according to the Buenos Aires exchange.
"I don't believe Argentina could have been a
reliable supplier of wheat to Brazil. There was a serious attack of fusarium
(fungi), about 40 percent of the wheat was bad quality (and) could only be sold
as feed wheat."
"This year (2013/14), we could see another
reduction in wheat area if the government doesn't change its anti-export
policy," he said.
