HAMBURG, March 26 (Reuters) - German oilseeds analyst Oil
World on Tuesday cut its forecast of the 2013 soybean harvest in Argentina by
1.5 million tonnes and reduced its estimate of Brazil's soybean crop by 0.7
million tonnes after unfavourable weather in both countries.
Oil World now forecasts Argentina will harvest 48.5 million
tonnes of soybeans in early 2013 after recent cold weather, down from 50.0
million tonnes it estimated in February, but still up from the 39.7 million
tonnes Argentina harvested in 2012.
Hamburg-based Oil World also said unfavourable rain means
it has cut its forecast of Brazil's 2013 crop to 81.3 million tonnes from 82.0
million tonnes forecast in February, still up from 66.4 million tonnes Brazil
harvested in 2012.
Big Argentine and Brazilian harvests are needed in early
2013 to relieve the tight global soybean market after the small U.S. crop had
to carry the world supply burden in recent months. But new crop exports from
Brazil have been disappointing in past weeks as the country’s ports struggle to
cope with huge shipments ordered by global soybean consumers.
Recent soybean price weakness is “treacherous” as smaller
than expected South American supplies could support soy markets, Oil World
said.
“Fundamentals are supportive for a recovery of soybean
prices in the old crop positions,” Oil World said.
It added: “While the decline in soybean exports from the
United States has accelerated of late, the seasonal recovery of South American
shipments is too low, keeping arrivals in importing countries below
requirements.”
Argentina’s government on Thursday estimated the country’s
soybean crop at 51.3 million tonnes. Argentina is the world's third-largest soybean exporter after the United States
and Brazil.
Argentine farmers are currently reluctant to sell their new
crop soybeans, Oil World said.
“Satisfaction of world import demand will be possible only
if sufficient Argentine soybeans and products are exported from April onward,”
Oil World said. “But there is a big risk that the soybeans sold by the farmers
and delivered to crushers and ports in coming weeks will be less than required
by the global market.”
