Thursday, March 21, 2013

Trader's highlight


DJI - NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 snapping a three-day losing streak as the Federal Reserve reassured investors that it would keep supporting the economy.

The housing sector's stocks ranked among the best performers after Lennar Corp reported a first-quarter profit well above analysts' expectations as lower interest rates and rising rents increased home sales.

The Dow hit an intraday record high but fell short of closing at another record. The view that the Fed will keep interest rates at record lows for years has helped drive the rally in stocks this year, along with signs of a strengthening U.S. recovery.

In its statement, the Fed said it would stick to its $85 billion monthly bond-buying stimulus, citing still high unemployment levels, but said it would take into account the possible risks of its policies.

The statement, and comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, came as the market grapples with banking woes in Cyprus, the most recent flare-up in the euro-zone debt crisis.

"It is amazing what a Fed on your side really brings for this market... It really can wipe out a lot of uncertainty and a lot of bad news," said Burt White, managing director and chief investment officer of LPL Financial in Boston.

Cypriot leaders held crisis talks on Wednesday to avoid a financial meltdown a day after the country's parliament rejected a tax on bank deposits, which had been proposed over the weekend by European Union officials.

Investors worry that a collapse of the banking system in Cyprus will tighten credit across Europe and become another hurdle in the region's bumpy road out of economic crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 55.91 points, or 0.39 percent, to end at 14,511.73, after rising as high as 14,546.82, an intraday record.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 10.37 points, or 0.67 percent, to finish at 1,558.71. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 25.09 points, or 0.78 percent, to close at 3,254.19.

"You might have thought the markets would do horribly after the Cyprus parliament vote, but I think that was a good step forward," said Cam Albright, director of asset allocation for Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors in Wilmington, Delaware.


Brent and Crude Oil - NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil rose above $108 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a three-month low, after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would continue its stimulus programs and on optimism that European policymakers can keep a debt crisis in Cyprus from spreading.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up a two-day meeting on Wednesday by pressing forward with its aggressive efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy, saying it would take into account risks posed by its policies but also how much progress it was making lowering unemployment.

Cyprus was seeking a new loan from Russia to avert a financial meltdown, after the island's parliament rejected the terms of a European Union bailout, raising the risk of default and a bank crash.

Brent crude for May rose $1.27 to settle at $108.72 a barrel. It had dropped nearly 2 percent to a three-month low on Tuesday. U.S. crude for April rose 80 cents to $92.96 per barrel.

"Clearly, market players anticipate that an alternative solution will be found for Cyprus," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. "Nonetheless, the uncertainty surrounding this issue is likely to continue to keep oil prices in check in the short run."

Oil prices also rose on Wednesday in the hours after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude stocks fell by 1.3 million barrels last week, rather than the 2.0 million-barrel increase analysts had expected. The report showed a drop in U.S. crude imports.

"We saw a drawdown in crude, which was a little surprise and would be supportive (for oil prices)," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

The EIA report also showed declines in U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel stocks, although these were smaller than analysts expected.

On the price charts, Brent faces its first upward resistance point at $108.50, said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix. Support levels to watch on Wednesday are $107.50 and then 107.00, he said.

The uncertainty about Cyprus's finances has revived concern about the stability of the euro zone and of the downside risks to global economic growth.

The U.S. dollar weakened by 0.3 percent on Wednesday against a basket of foreign currencies A weaker dollar tends to support the price of oil and other dollar-denominated commodities.


CBOT Soybean March 20 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher, halting a six-session decline on technical buying and concerns about tight U.S. supplies, traders said.

* Nearby contracts led the gains, with May and July soybeans rising to intraday highs toward the closing bell.

·         Nearbys supported by ongoing concerns about logistics  problems in Brazil that have slowed the movement of a likely  record-large soy harvest into marketing channels.
 
·         Firm U.S. cash market lends support; soybean basis bids firmed at several Midwest processing sites. 

·         Gains in deferred contracts were limited by private estimates for increased U.S. soybean plantings in 2013. Crop forecaster Lanworth projected 2013 seedings at a record-large   81.3 million acres.

·         May soybeans gained against July on spreads for a second session, after losing ground for the previous five  sessions.

·         Lanworth raised its soybean production forecasts for Argentina to 50.5 million tonnes from 49.4 million, and Brazil  to 81.1 million tonnes from 80.8 million.
 
·         Malaysian palm oil futures rose to the highest level in  more than a week on higher export demand, although gains were curbed after Cyprus's rejection of a proposed bailout plan led to worries of a default. 


BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to the highest in more than a week on Wednesday on higher export demand, although gains were curbed after Cyprus's rejection of a proposed bailout plan led to worries of a default.

Cyprus's parliament voted against assessing a levy on bank deposits as a condition for a European bailout on Tuesday, throwing international efforts to save the latest casualty of the euro zone debt crisis into disarray.

But palm prices were lifted by Malaysian palm oil exports that rose 11 percent for the March 1-20 period to 927,665 tonnes, up from 835,612 tonnes a month ago, according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services.

Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a 14 percent increase for the same period. 

"If exports continue at this rate, we will see a figure of around 1.4-1.5 million tonnes for the full month," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "Stocks will come down even more and this trend may continue into April."

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 1.1 percent to 2,441 ringgit ($782) per tonne, below its intraday high at 2,448 ringgit, a level last seen a week ago on March 11.

Total traded volume stood at 48,190 lots of 25 tonnes each, almost twice the usual 25,000 lots.

Refined palm olein exports nearly doubled in the March 1-20 period, offsetting a decline in crude palm oil shipments and leading to higher overall exports, cargo surveyor data showed.

Market participants are counting on rising exports and seasonally slower production to pull down Malaysia's inventory levels. Stocks reached a record 2.63 million tonnes in December but have been gradually easing since then, dropping to 2.44 million tonnes by the end of February.

In other markets, Brent crude rose towards $108 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a three-month low, on hopes the United States would continue with its stimulus programme and that Europe would reach a last-minute deal to bail out Cyprus.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery gained 0.3 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange lost 0.1 percent.


Regional Equities - March 20 (Reuters) - Main Southeast Asian stocks ended weaker on Wednesday, led by Thailand on fears that the financial crisis in Cyprus could spread to other European countries after a bailout plan for the island nation fell into disarray.

However, losses were capped by late buying on hopes Cyprus might avert a financial meltdown as its leaders held talks to prevent a crisis after the country's parliament rejected the terms of the European Union bailout.

Thailand fell for a third straight session, losing 1.6 percent to hit its lowest since March 4. It has fallen 3.4 percent in the week. Banks lead the fall with a 4.2 percent drop in Kasikornbank PCL and 3.3 percent loss in Siam Commercial Bank PCL

The Philippines lost 0.1 percent, led by holding firms to a near seven-week low, falling for an eighth straight session. It has lost 6.5 percent since hitting an all-time high of 6,867.10 on March 11.

Singapore lost 0.6 percent to a two-week low, led by a 2.3 percent fall in Singapore Telecommunications Ltd.

However, Malaysia gained 0.4 percent, while Vietnam jumped 1.4 percent to a one-month high on rate cut hopes and credit growth.

Indonesia edged up 0.2 percent to a one-week high.