Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - The Dow Jones industrial average soared to a record closing high on Tuesday, breaking through levels last seen in 2007 and as investors rushed in to join the party in anticipation of more gains.

Signs of a strengthening U.S. economy, continued support from the Federal Reserve, and fairly attractive valuations compared to other assets have boosted the Dow by almost 9 percent so far this year. A strong reading in the U.S. services sector, which accounts for the bulk of economic activity, was the latest indicator of improving demand.

"I'm surprised at the speed of the gains, which have come at a pace that we can’t annualize. But stocks are still not expensive, and we can expect to continue getting a reasonable advance from here," said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Chicago-based Northern Trust Global Investments, who helps oversee $760 billion in assets.

Gains came across the board, with 10 of the Dow's 30 component stocks reaching new 52-week highs on a day when 456 securities hit new yearly highs on the New York Stock Exchange. The Dow Jones Transportation Average also closed at a new high after rising 1.5 percent.

About 71 percent of the NYSE stocks closed higher while 67 percent of Nasdaq-listed shares ended in positive territory. About 6.41 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, slightly below the daily average so far this year of about 6.48 billion shares.

About 16.9 million contracts changed hands in the U.S. options market on Tuesday, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert. The turnover consisted of 8.90 million calls and 8.01 million puts. The overall option turnover was in line with last month's daily average of 16.89 million contracts.

The blue-chip Dow's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio was at 15.87, compared with 16.99 during the 2007 highs, according to Thomson Reuters Datastream. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio was at 13.5. 

The Institute for Supply Management's services index showed growth accelerated in February to its fastest pace in a year. Still, some areas of the economy haven't recovered as well as equity prices have since the financial crisis. The unemployment rate is at an elevated 7.9 percent, far above the 4.7 percent rate at the time of the Dow's previous high.

Markets have shrugged off the stalemate between the congressional Republicans and the White House over automatic U.S. government spending cuts, known as the "sequester." Other recent headwinds, including political turmoil in Europe, have also been navigated without much pain, with investors using any decline as an opportunity to buy.

"The economy is still expanding and improving despite the risk of higher taxes and lower spending," McDonald said. "While you can never rule out a correction, we don't see the economy or the Fed getting in the way of the market."

The Dow Jones industrial average  shot up 125.95 points, or 0.89 percent, to close at 14,253.77. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index  gained 14.59 points, or 0.96 percent, to 1,539.79. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 42.10 points, or 1.32 percent, to 3,224.13.


Brent Crude Oil - NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - Brent crude broke a five-day losing streak on Tuesday, rising by more than 1 percent toward $112 a barrel on optimism over Chinese oil demand, record-high U.S. equities and North Sea supply disruptions.

Oil prices extended their rise slightly in post-settlement trading after the announcement of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's death, ending the socialist leader's 14-year rule of the oil-rich South American country.

Brent crude futures rose $1.52 per barrel to settle at $111.61. The front-month contract for April delivery rose as high as $111.93 a barrel in post-settlement activity, following the announcement of Chavez's death.


CBOT Soybean March 5 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose on Tuesday, briefly topping $15 a bushel, on export demand for dwindling supplies of old-crop U.S. soybeans, traders said.
  • Front-month soybeans futures broke through psychological resistance at $15 a bushel for the first time since Feb. 22 but closed below that level.
  • Soymeal followed soybeans higher while soyoil closed lower.
  • USDA said private exporters reported sales of 330,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for the current marketing year and 345,000 tonnes to China for delivery in 2013/14.
  • Trade expects USDA on Friday to lower its forecasts for end-year 2012/13 U.S. and world soybean stocks to reflect poor crop weather in Argentina and robust demand for scarce U.S. supplies.
  • The average analyst estimate for U.S. 2012/13 soybean ending stocks was 120 million bushels, down from USDA's February forecast of 125 million.
  • Brazil's government will release its next official soybean crop forecast on Thursday, March 7.
  • Brazil's vegetable oils association Abiove held its soy crop forecast unchanged at a record 82.3 million tonnes.
  • Strength in outside markets lends support. The Dow Jones industrial average hit a record high as major world stock markets rallied after China pledged more government spending to boost economic growth and data showed the U.S. service sector expanding at its fastest pace in a year.

BMD CPO - KUALA LUMPUR, March 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged down in thin volume on Tuesday after gains in the previous session lifted prices from near two-month lows, with traders focusing on a key industry conference to determine strategies.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.6 percent to 2,399 ringgit ($772) per tonne by the day's close. Prices traded in a tight range of 2,389 to 2,428 ringgit.

A technical bounce on Monday had helped prices snap eight straight sessions of declines and move higher from levels last seen in mid-January.

"There was an attempt to push the market higher yesterday and some anticipation about a follow through in buying, but nothing materialized," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Traders are mostly waiting on the analysts and speakers for more clues. There will probably be slow trading until tomorrow," he added. The palm oil conference being held in the Malaysian capital runs March 4-6.

Several palm oil refineries have slowed operations and some plan to halt output if a Malaysian military attack on an armed Filipino group on Borneo island drags on, potentially disrupting supply of the tropical oil to China, refinery officials told Reuters on Tuesday.

Sabah, part of Borneo island, is Malaysia's top oil palm growing region, accounting for a quarter of national production. Much of the palm oil from Sabah is shipped to China -- the world's second-largest consumer of edible oils.

The development was not impacting prices significantly so far, traders, analysts and government officials said. But prolonged supply disruptions could buoy prices, although climbs would probably be limited as high stock levels in the country continue to weigh.

"If the turmoil drags on for weeks and months, it could have a more severe impact on production," CIMB Investment Bank said in a note. "The security fears may also affect the operations of ports located near where the clashes are taking place."

In other markets, Brent crude futures rose towards $111 per barrel on Tuesday, bucking a five-day losing streak on bargain buying after China pledged to keep its economy growing at 7.5 percent.

In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery edged down 0.1 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange inched up 0.1 percent.


Regional Equities - BANGKOK, March 5 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stocks rose on Tuesday along with gains in Asian peers, with the Philippine index nearing its record high close as large-cap Philippine Long Distance Telephone (PLDT) rose on robust quarterly profits, but an overbought Indonesia retreated.

Asian shares climbed on Tuesday as a globally accommodative monetary stance helped revive risk appetite. 

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan  was up 1 percent while the MSCI's index of Southeast Asia  was 0.4 percent higher.

The Philippine index  snapped its two-day losing streak, ending up 1.12 percent at 6,711.72, just shy of its record close of 6721.45 hit on Feb. 28. PLDT shares jumped to five-year highs after it posted a six-fold rise in quarterly profit.

Telecom firms also led among gainers in the region such as Singapore Telecommunications Ltd and Malaysia's DiGi.Com Bhd . In Bangkok, investors bought Shin Corporation Pcl partly due to a high dividend payout.

Bucking the trend, Indonesia  edged down 0.2 percent as investors sold recent gainers such as banks. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, which hit a record high on Feb. 28, extended losses for a third session, falling 2.3 percent.

Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index  dropped 1.4 percent, adding on Monday's 1.8 percent loss, due to pressure from margin calls and weak buying demand.