Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, May 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed little changed on Monday, pausing after hitting record highs last week, but strength in healthcare issues helped to keep declines in check.

The day's flat close followed a third straight week of gains on the major indexes, with both the Dow and S&P 500 setting record closing highs last week. The S&P 500 remains up 14.5 percent for the year so far.

While some analysts argue the long-term trend is still higher, many see momentum waning in the near term in the absence of positive catalysts. Volume has been lighter than average, and volatility has been low in recent days.

"Intraday volatility has essentially been nonexistent. I think it means people are really sitting on the sidelines right now seeing which way it's going to go," said Uri Landesman, president of Platinum Partners in New York. He expects the rally to top out in the next two weeks.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended down 26.81 points, or 0.18 percent, at 15,091.68. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 0.07 point at 1,633.77. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 2.21 points, or 0.06 percent, at 3,438.79.


Oils - NEW YORK, May 13 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices settled lower on Monday after a choppy day of trading, hit by slowing oil demand in China and data showing the biggest drop for U.S. retail gasoline sales in more than four years.

Positive U.S. retail sales data supported the idea that the U.S. economy was continuing to recover but it did not apply to gasoline sales, underscoring ailing demand for the fuel. The retail data also strengthened the U.S. dollar, which had a negative impact on the price of crude oil.

Refinery crude throughput in China, the world's second-largest consumer, fell 3 percent in April from March, its lowest daily rate since last September, as refineries entered maintenance season. Implied oil demand was up 3.2 percent in April from a year earlier to about 9.6 million barrels per day, the lowest in eight months.

Brent crude settled down $1.09 per barrel at $102.82, after trading as low as $102.25. U.S. oil ended the day 87 cents lower at $95.17 a barrel, after trading as low as $94.47.

"The economic data in China is not yet providing upward support. It is not that it is weak, it is simply not sufficient to support a bullish trend," Harry Tchilingurian, head of commodity market strategy at BNP Paribas, said.

U.S. retail sales edged up 0.1 percent, after a revised 0.5 percent decline in March, data from the Commerce Department showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected retail sales to drop 0.3 percent last month.


CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose on Monday on firm cash markets and tightening U.S. supplies, lifting the spot contract to a six-month high, traders said.

·         The May soybean contract rose 2.2 percent one day ahead of its expiration, peaking at $15.27-1/4 per bushel, the  highest spot soybean price since Nov 2.
 
·         Nearby soymeal contracts posted the biggest percentage gains in the soy complex and soyoil followed the higher trend.
 
·         Cash bids for soybeans were steady to sharply higher in  the eastern U.S. Midwest as farmers delayed sales and deliveries  of old-crop supplies and focused on planting their new crop.
 
·         Light rains at mid-week will slow fieldwork in parts of    the U.S. Midwest, with heavier rains to follow early next week,    an agricultural meteorologist said. Conditions should favor   active planting early this week. 

·         Ahead of the USDA's weekly crop progress report later on   Monday, a Reuters survey of analysts pegged U.S. soybean  planting progress by May 12 at 10 percent, up from 2 percent a  week ago. Estimates ranged from 7 percent to 13 percent   complete. 
 
·         USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the  latest week at 3.351 million bushels, within a range of trade     estimates for 3 million to 6 million.    

BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, May 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures eased from a one-month high on Monday as worries about weak exports prompted profit-taking and offset initial gains driven by slowing inventory levels.

Edible oil futures got off to a strong start as traders priced in a drop of 11.3 percent in Malaysia's end-April palm oil stocks to 1.93 million tonnes from a month earlier.

But lacklustre export demand later weighed down prices. Palm exports slid 18.4 percent to 377,193 tonnes for the first 10 days of May from a month earlier, on slowing demand from Europe and China, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said last Friday.

"The Malaysian palm oil stock finally crossed below the 2-million-tonne mark, which is positive for the crude palm oil price as it is an indication that stocks have normalised," said Ivy Ng, senior research analyst at Malaysia's CIMB Investment Bank.

"But this was offset by the 18 percent drop in palm oil exports for the first 10 days of May," she added. "We suspect the weaker exports may be due to higher demand for Indonesian palm oil ... and slower demand from China due to high stocks at the ports."

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.4 percent to close at 2,309 ringgit ($771) per tonne, and off an earlier high of 2,341 ringgit, a level last seen on April 12.

Total traded volumes stood at 20,607 lots of 25 tonnes each, lower than the average 35,000 lots.

Stagnant production growth in April led to a bigger decline in Malaysian stocks than expected, and analysts said slowing output growth could continue to trim stocks this month, and support crude prices.

"Looking forward, we believe stocks could fall 5 percent month-on-month to 1.84 million tonnes by May. The trend of declining inventory is supportive," said Alan Lim Seong Chun, a research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank.

In other markets, crude prices slipped towards $103 a barrel on Monday as oil demand in the world's second-largest consumer China fell to eight-month lows, weighing on the global outlook for the fuel. 

In vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for July delivery fell 0.2 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract  on the Dalian Commodities Exchange rose 0.4 percent.