RTRS - Snow and rain help inch U.S. crop belt out of drought

CHICAGO, March 15 (Reuters) - Increased rainfall and some snow are expected by the weekend and again late next week in the northern U.S. Midwest and southern portions of the region, which will add valuable soil moisture ahead of spring seedings of corn and soybeans, an agricultural meteorologist said on Friday.

The extended drought last summer, the worst in 50 years, slashed more than 25 percent of the projected bushels of corn crop per acre, cutting supplies in the United States to the current 17-year low.

"From 4 to 8 inches of snow or roughly 0.50 inch to 0.75 inch of moisture equivalent is expected in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin," said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA Weather Services. "It certainly will add soil moisture."

Keeney also said warmer weather this week in the U.S. Plains hard red winter wheat region will be replaced by colder weather next week.

"Much of the crop in the far south broke dormancy this week," he said, "but I think with the colder weather next week, there won't be much emergence (break from dormancy) from central Kansas into Nebraska."

Winter snowfall and recent rains have helped add soil moisture to the drought-stricken Plains wheat and cattle-grazing region, but more rain is needed to bring soil moisture levels back to normal, Keeney and others said.

Commodity Weather Group meteorologist Joel Widenor said the weekend showers and snow would ease the drought a bit in the northwestern Midwest, and showers over the next two weeks would help in the Plains.

But "the southwestern Plains will rely on recent improvements in topsoil moisture to support spring growth of winter wheat," Widenor said.

"Early corn seeding in the Delta and Southeast will slow occasionally due to showers and intermittent cool weather over the next two weeks, but only minor interruptions are anticipated," he said.

Drought continued to retreat in many areas of the U.S. Plains as snow and rainfall replenished parched soils and gave farmers and ranchers an improved outlook for better crop and livestock conditions, according to a report issued on Thursday.

Eight U.S. states continued to suffer from the worst level of drought, dubbed "exceptional" by the Drought Monitor, a report issued by a consortium of state and federal climatologists each week. But many saw improvement.

Keeney said that as of March 9, about 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 cm) of rain were needed in Kansas, the top producer of hard red winter wheat, to bring the state out of drought status.

That was an improvement from early February when about 4 inches to 6 inches (10 to 15 cm) of rain was needed.

Up to 8 inches (20 cm) was needed in a pocket of severe dryness in northeastern Kansas, a big corn- and grain sorghum-growing area. Similar amounts were needed in nearly the eastern third of Nebraska.

Northwest Iowa and south-central Minnesota needed from 4 to 6 inches (10 to 15 cm) to get soils back to normal moisture levels.

Near-normal soil moisture was seen in most of Missouri and all of Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged lower on Friday, weighed by a decline in JPMorgan Chase shares after the bank was hit by a one-two punch of bad news and as investors paused just below the S&P 500's record high.

The widely watched index was about 6 points away from its record closing high of 1,565.15, set in October 2007, after failing to break above that level on Thursday.

Friday's dip also meant the Dow was on track to snap its 10-day winning streak during which it racked up a series of all-time highs. Equities have rallied since the start of the year on signs of improvement in the economy and supported by the Federal Reserve's efforts to bolster the recovery.

"It seems like the market is digesting some of the rally that we have seen so far, but when we reflect on the current valuation which is 13 1/2 times earnings on a forward looking basis, it is still a comfortable level compared to around 20 in 2007 and 29-30 levels in 2000," said David Lyon, Investment Specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, based in San Francisco.

JPMorgan Chase & Co was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 and one of the biggest weights on the Dow, falling 2.2 percent to $49.87.

The Federal Reserve told JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Group Inc that they must fix flaws in how they determine capital payouts to shareholders, though the central bank still approved their plans for share buybacks and dividends.

A Senate report alleged that JPMorgan had ignored risks, misled investors, fought with regulators and tried to work around rules as it dealt with mushrooming losses in a derivatives portfolio. A former top JPMorgan official told lawmakers on Friday she was not to blame for the losses.

In contrast, Goldman shares recovered from early weakness to gain 0.3 percent to $154.58. The stock of rival Bank of America rose 3.9 percent to $12.58. The S&P financial sector index edged up 0.3 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 49.40 points, or 0.34 percent, at 14,489.74. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 4.96 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,558.27. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 13.44 points, or 0.41 percent, at 3,245.49.

Brent and Crude Oils - NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures settled higher on Friday, driven by strong U.S. industrial output data in the world's largest oil consumer and a weaker U.S. dollar.

The weaker dollar buffered oil prices from declining on the back of the U.S. stock market being knocked off its highs.

The dollar fell as investors opted to book profits after U.S. inflation data kept the door open for the Federal Reserve to continue its bond-buying program for the foreseeable future.

"The dollar is down a lot more in the last two days so hence the buoyancy in energy prices," said Walter Zimmermann, chief technical analyst with brokerage United ICAP in New York. "And energy prices are being insulated from stock market weakness by weakness in the dollar today."

Crude oil prices are denominated in U.S. dollars and when the value of the currency sinks, prices rise to offset the weakness.

STANDOFF

Iran was still more than a year from developing a nuclear weapon, Obama said in an interview with Israeli television broadcast on Thursday, six days before his visit to Israel.

Obama appeared to send a message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the need for patience with Washington's Iran strategy, while also showing U.S. resolve to confront Tehran if necessary.

Worries that the standoff between the West and Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program will escalate and disrupt oil supplies have kept Brent above $100 a barrel through most of 2012 and this year.

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a fourth session on Friday as disappointing U.S. soybean crush data combined with pressure from the expanding South American harvest, traders said.

* The National Oilseed Processors Association reported the U.S. February soybean crush at 136.3 million bushels, below a range of trade estimates and down from 158.2 million in January.

  

• CBOT soyoil ended higher, supported by traders unwinding meal/oil spreads and by NOPA's February soyoil stocks figure of 2.790 billion lbs, a decline from 2.823 billion in January.

  

• For the week, May soybeans  SK3 fell 45 cents or 3.1 percent, the contract's biggest drop since early January. May soymeal  SMK3 fell 3.8 percent, ending a three-week climb, while May soyoil  BOK3 fell 0.8 percent, its third drop in four weeks.

• Allendale Inc survey projected U.S. 2013 soybean plantings at a record-high 78.324 million acres and corn plantings at 96.956 million acres. 

  

• Rain and some snow are expected by the weekend and again late next week in the northern U.S. Midwest, which will add valuable soil moisture ahead of spring planting. (Full Story)

  

• USDA said private exporters reported sales of 165,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2013/14.

  

• Malaysian palm oil futures rose on bargain-hunting after three straight sessions of losses, with traders expecting seasonally lower production and firm exports to help stocks ease further.

  

• CBOT reported no deliveries of soybeans, soymeal or soyoil.

BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday on bargain-hunting after three straight sessions of losses, with traders expecting seasonally lower production and firm exports to help stocks ease further.

Palm oil posted a loss of 1.3 percent for the week, weighed down by a weak soy market suffering from poor export demand and higher South American supply.

But market participants said they were still counting on a seasonal decline in output to help ease stocks and support prices, especially after cargo surveyor data on Friday showed firm export demand.

"We see some retracement in an oversold market," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "For the past few days external markets like Dalian and CBOT soybean oil were a little weak, but they have pulled back up a bit, so our market is adjusting to it."

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 2.2 percent to 2,415 ringgit ($774) per tonne by the market close. Prices fell to 2,360 ringgit on Thursday, the lowest level since Jan. 14.

Total traded volume stood at 35,268 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from March 1 to 15 inched up 0.2 percent to 675,210 tonnes from 673,555 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1 to 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Friday.

Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for April at 4.5 percent, unchanged from March, a government circular showed on Friday.

In other markets, Brent crude oil rose above $109 a barrel on Friday as strong U.S. jobs data fuelled hopes of a better outlook for demand in the world's top oil consumer, while concerns over supply from the Middle East added support. 

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery inched up 0.9 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange also gained 1.4 percent.

Regional equities - BANGKOK, March 15 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks were mostly higher on Friday, with Indonesia snapping three sessions of losses after the new central bank governor's view of low interest rates, and Thailand nearly touching the 1,600 mark on progress of infrastructure investment.

Jakarta's Composite Index finished up 0.7 percent at 4,819.32, trimming its loss on the week to 1.1 percent. It rallied almost 10 percent over the past six weeks, setting a record close of 4,874.50 on March 8.

Thai SET index  rose for the third session, ending up 0.7 percent at a 19-year closing high of 1,598.13. It gained almost 2 percent on the week, Southeast Asia's second best performer. Vietnam  led the region with a weekly gain of 2.3 percent.

Thai government's progress on plans for huge infrastructure investment has bolstered demand, with the cabinet set to meet next week to discuss 2 trillion baht ($67.5 billion) in spending.

Bucking the trend, Kuala Lumpur's Composite Index lost almost 1 percent to 1,627.64, the lowest close in more than two weeks. The Philippines eased 0.6 percent, extending losses for a fifth session, to 6,654.60.

Across the region, investors bought stocks with good earnings and yielding good dividends. In the Philippines, conglomerate Alliance Global Group Inc jumped 2.5 percent after it reported strong 2012 earnings.

Among bright spots, Thailand's SkyTrain operator BTS Group Holdings Pcl  jumped 3.4 percent following its plan to raise up to $2.1 billion by listing an infrastructure fund.

RTRS - NOPA February U.S. soy crush seen at 141.6 mln bushels

CHICAGO, March 14 (Reuters) - The National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soybean crush data scheduled for release on Friday should show the U.S. crush for February at 141.6 million bushels, a poll of seven analysts projected.

If realized, the figure would represent the largest NOPA February crush since 2010.

Trade estimates ranged from 138.3 million to 144.0 million bushels. NOPA reported the January crush at 158.195 million bushels, the second-largest monthly total in three years. The group reported the year-ago crush for February 2012 at 136.350 million bushels.

The average analyst estimate for NOPA's February U.S. soyoil stocks figure was 2.771 billion lbs, down from NOPA's January figure of 2.823 billion. The analysts' estimates ranged from 2.648 billion to 2.863 billion lbs.

NOPA reported year-ago February 2012 soyoil stocks at 2.242 billion lbs.

NOPA this year began releasing its data at noon EDT (1600 GMT) on the 15th of each month.

Trader's highlight

NEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - The Dow Jones industrial average extended its winning streak to 10 days on Thursday, a string of gains last seen in late 1996, and ended at another record high as investors were encouraged by data showing the labor market's recovery was improving.

The S&P 500 took a late-day run at its record closing high of 1,565.15, but ended just 2 points away. The 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average has been setting record highs since last week, when it rallied on March 5 to initially surpass its previous lifetime closing peak set in October 2007.

U.S. equities have accelerated their run higher without a major consolidation since the start of the year, driven by improvement in the economy and the Federal Reserve's continuation of its easy monetary policy.

"It's simply a natural progression for prices to move to new highs in order for the market to advance. I don't think it's scaring investors," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

"Fund flows really have reversed direction, and money started moving out of money markets and some from fixed income to equities. This kind of trend doesn't change easily so we can expect a lot more to come in."

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 83.86 points, or 0.58 percent, to 14,539.14, a record closing high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 8.71 points, or 0.56 percent, to 1,563.23, about 2 points from its record closing high of 1,565.15, set on Oct. 9, 2007.

Oil Futures - NEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. oil futures rose to the highest settlement price in two weeks on Thursday as data showed an improving U.S. labor market in the world's largest oil consumer.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped unexpectedly last week, data from the U.S. Labor Department showed. 

"As long as we have signs that economic conditions are not going to slow, we'll see improvement," said Gene McGillian, analyst and broker with Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

Stock market gains also helped support crude oil prices. The Dow Jones industrial average extended gains for a 10th straight day on the labor market data. 

The U.S. dollar retreated from a seven-month high against a basket of currencies as some currency traders cashed in profits.

A weaker U.S. dollar helped buoy U.S. crude oil prices. Because crude is priced in U.S. dollars, when the value of the currency drops, oil generally becomes more expensive to offset the dollar's weakness.

U.S. crude oil futures settled 51 cents higher at $93.03 per barrel.

Brent crude for April settled 90 cents per barrel higher, or 0.83 percent, at $109.42 as the contract expired.

Oil slipped earlier in the session as investors focused on a subdued outlook for demand growth in the United States and China, easing supply concerns.

Two of the three most closely watched oil forecasters - the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - lowered global oil demand growth forecasts this week. The third, OPEC, flagged downside risks to the outlook.

The EIA on Tuesday cut its 2013 world oil demand growth forecast by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.01 million bpd.

Comments by China's central bank on stabilizing inflation expectations reinforced concern it may drop its pro-growth policy before economic expansion gathers full momentum. The remarks pressured most markets in Asia.

Supply concerns have taken a back seat for now.

South Sudan said on Tuesday it would be ready to restart oil production, which was shut down for more than a year, within three weeks, and on Wednesday a U.S. government report said crude stockpiles rose last week.

OPEC production is expected to trend higher as Saudi Arabia adds to supplies in coming months. Saudi Arabia expects to raise its oil output in the second quarter, oil industry sources said last month.

Saudi cut back its output in the last two months of 2012 because of weaker Asian demand and a lower domestic need for crude in power plants, among other factors.

CBOT Soybean - March 14 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a third straight session as the expanding Brazilian soybean harvest eased supply worries and export demand from top buyer China slowed, traders said.

  

·         The May soybean contract dipped below its 50-day moving average at $14.33, dropping to $14.29, but settled above it at $14.35-1/2.

·         Traders noted talk that falling soy crush margins in China are limiting Chinese demand for U.S. and Brazilian soybeans.

·         Brazilian dock workers postponed a nationwide strike planned for March 19 but are considering a strike on March 26. The move eased concerns about worsening shipping delays as Brazil aims to export its record-large soy crop.

 

·         The average trade estimate ahead of the National Oilseed Processors Association's February U.S. soy crush report on Friday was 141.6 million bushels, down from NOPA's January figure of 158.195 million. 

·         Trade expects NOPA to report a slight decline in U.S. soyoil stocks, with an average estimate of 2.771 billion lbs, down from NOPA's January figure of 2.823 billion.

·         USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 657,700 tonnes for 2012/13 and 126,000 tonnes for 2013/14. The combined-year total of 783,700 tonnes was the lowest in three weeks.

·         USDA reported weekly export sales of soymeal at 51,700 tonnes, below expectations, and soyoil sales at 6,000 tonnes, roughly in line with expectations.

BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell to a two-month low on Thursday, dropping for a third straight session on persistent weakness in soy markets, while traders watch for upcoming export data to gauge demand.

U.S. soybean prices have been pressured by poor exports and increased competition from South American supplies as traders said Brazilian beans were now being offered at competitive prices.

Palm oil investors are still counting on a seasonal drop-off in production that could ease stocks and support prices. Export demand is also in focus as cargo surveyors will release Malaysia's March 1-15 export data on Friday.

"We are all expecting the market to move up due to the low production season but the weakness from the soy side is pulling down palm as well," said a Singapore-based trader with a global commodities house.

Palm oil tends to track soybean oil prices closely as they are substitutes for each other.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had slid 1.3 percent to 2,366 ringgit ($760) per tonne, just above its intraday low of 2,360 ringgit, the lowest level since Jan. 14.

Total traded volume stood at 29,364 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,500 lots.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said Malaysia's export demand for the March 1-10 period was almost flat with a month ago, while another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a slight 2.2 percent increase for the same period.

Palm oil prices may face further pressure as traders said significantly lower crude palm oil shipments and record high stocks at destination ports may weigh on exports for the rest of the month.

In other markets, Brent crude held steady below $109 a barrel on Thursday on concerns over demand growth from top two consumers China and the United States, while a firm dollar added pressure on prices.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery edged down 0.7 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract  on the Dalian Commodities Exchange had lost 0.7 percent.

Regional Equities - BANGKOK, March 14 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets mostly ended weak on Thursday as some worries about the euro zone weighed on broader Asia, with overbought Indonesia falling to its lowest in more than a week and the Philippines sliding as its central bank kept the benchmark rate intact.

Jakarta's Composite Index ended down 1 percent at 4,786.37, extending losses for a third session after setting a record close of 4,874.49 on March 8.

Its 14-day relative strength index had stayed higher than an overbought mark of 70 and above since mid-Feb and ended at 72.27 on Thursday, higher than most of its peers.

The market noted $2.1 billion in foreign inflows year-to-date, topping $1.64 billion in inflows in full year 2012, when it relatively underperformed others in Southeast Asia.

The Philippines' main index was down 1.2 percent, its fourth straight session of loss, ending at 6,694.71, the lowest close since March 4. Its central bank kept its benchmark interest rate steady at a record low of 3.5 percent as expected.

Bucking the trend, the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index was up 0.3 percent after two sessions of losses. The Thai index pared early losses to end up 0.5 percent at 1,586.79, its highest close since January 1994.

Last month, CLSA upgraded its end-2013 target for the benchmark index to 1,650, partly reflecting higher confidence that Thailand's infrastructure investment will materialise.

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.3 percent while the MSCI index of Southeast Asia was down 0.4 percent. 

Palm Oil Drops to Two-Month Low as Brazil’s Soy Supplies Cl‏imb

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil declined to the lowest level since January on concern that a bumper soybean crop in Brazil, poised to be the world’s largest grower this year, will boost global oilseed supplies and damp demand.

The contract for May delivery dropped as much as 1.5 percent to 2,362 ringgit ($759) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the lowest most-active price since Jan. 14.

Futures were 2,363 ringgit at close of the morning session in Kuala Lumpur, down 30 percent in the past year.

About 11.9 million tons of soybeans and its products were scheduled for shipment at major ports in Brazil as of yesterday, up from 10.77 million tons a week ago, according to SA Commodities and Unimar Agenciamentos Maritimos.

The country is set to overtake the U.S. this year as the top exporter of the beans that can be crushed to make soybean oil. “Buyers know that the supply is coming, so they may be only willing to offer lower prices,” said Alan Lim Seong Chun, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd., referring to oilseeds from Brazil.

Soybean oil for May delivery fell 0.2 percent to 49.41 cents a pound on the Chicago Board of Trade, while soybeans for May delivery retreated 0.5 percent to $14.40 a bushel. Soybean oil was about 1.44 times costlier than palm.

Refined palm oil for delivery in September dropped 0.7 percent to 6,296 yuan ($1,012) a ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean oil for delivery in the same month was little changed at 8,032 yuan a ton.

RTRS - UPDATE 1-India's Feb palm oil imports drop 10 pct mm, duty hike hurts

NEW DELHI, March 14 (Reuters) - India's palm oil imports dropped almost 10 percent in February from an all-time high in the previous month, a trade body said on Thursday, hurt by a duty hike to curb cheap imports from Southeast Asia and higher stock levels.

India is the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils and leading producers Indonesia and Malaysia have been vying to make their oils more attractive by varying taxes. India retaliated with an import duty hike on crude palm oil in January.

It imports about 8-9 million tonnes a year or about half its total demand. Palm oil accounts for about 80 percent of imports.

India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last month with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes, the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) said in a statement.

A Reuters survey had forecast average vegetable oil imports to be 981,500 tonnes in February, including 794,000 tonnes of palm oil.

India buys palm oil mainly from Malaysia and Indonesia and a small quantity of soyoil from Brazil and Argentina.

Huge stocks built up due to higher imports in recent months and softer domestic demand as the rapeseed harvest started led to lower imports in February, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Mumbai-based trader body.

But he cautioned imports were "still on the higher side and domestic prices are expected to fall in coming months", adding that this could mean domestic oilseeds growers might cut production.

In January, India's vegetable oil imports rose to 1.2 million tonnes, with palm oil imports surging 13 percent on the month to a record 893,313 tonnes.

New Delhi slapped a duty of 2.5 percent on crude palm oil during the second half of January to curb imports, but refiners have demanded a further rise to protect themselves and domestic oilseed growers.

As India's population grows in size and wealth, demand for cooking oils is rising. New Delhi tries to encourage local oilseed production, partly by guaranteeing minimum prices to farmers, but has had limited success.

RTRS - Dollar rises across the board on upbeat U.S. data

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to a seven-month high against a basket of currencies and a three-month peak against the euro on Wednesday as robust U.S. retail sales data bolstered prospects for the world's largest economy.

The greenback has risen nearly 4 percent against a currency basket and about 1.8 percent versus the euro so far this year. It has outperformed most major currencies in 2013.

The U.S. retail sales data was the latest evidence that the economy is firing on almost all cylinders. The Commerce Department said February retail sales increased 1.1 percent, the largest monthly rise since September.

"The growing dichotomy between the ever-improving U.S. economic picture and the moribund conditions in the euro zone has finally pushed the euro through the $1.2950 key support level against the dollar," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.

• U.S. retail sales post largest rise since September
• U.S. economy outperforms, boosting dollar sentiment
• Euro hurt by higher Italian bond yields after auction
• RBNZ keeps rates steady, says won't raise rates this year

RTRS - RPT-AccuWeather says most of US setting up for good growing year

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) - The spring weather pattern for the United States looks greatly improved from a year ago, when drought was both widespread and severe, which is good news for agricultural producers, a private weather forecaster said on Wednesday.

A series of winter storms, which have continued into March, add up to a more positive outlook for crops that will be planted from the Plains to the East Coast, AccuWeather said in its 2013 U.S. spring weather outlook.

"A bumper crop of corn alone later this summer could eventually reduce the pressure on grain, livestock feed and other consumer prices," said the firm, which is based in State College, Pennsylvania.

"Compared to last year, for the season as a whole, more moisture will be available for agriculture due to lower temperatures and lower evaporation rates from the Mississippi Valley to much of the Atlantic coastal plain."

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has projected record large U.S. corn and soybean crops this year, assuming normal growing conditions. New-crop futures at the CBOT are trading well below old-crop in anticipation of bumper harvests.

"We expect ample moisture during most of the growing season, with few exceptions into this summer from the Mississippi Valey to the East Coast," said Paul Pastelok, head of AccuWeather's long-range forecasting department.

Echoing a recent U.S. government forecast, AccuWeather said that parts of California and the Florida peninsula could experience drought or at least drier-than-normal conditions into the first part of the summer.

"A lack of big snowstorms over the Sierra Nevada and other ranges in the West could mean water resource limitations in California," the firm said.

But overall, the severe drought that extended over much of the United States in 2012, and hammered U.S. corn, soybean and wheat growers, is not expected to be repeated.

Winter storms have added up to near-normal snowfall for major cropping areas of the lower Plains through the Midwest and in parts of the Northwest United States, AccuWeather said.

Average temperatures are also significantly lower this March from a year ago, which will result in lower evaporation rates for a time.

"Overall, less long-lasting, extreme heat is forecast from the Mississippi Valley to the East during most of the spring and summer," the group said.

One negative of cooler spring temperatures is that crops generally could be planted later this year, limiting the opportunity for double-cropping, said Dale Mohler, an agricultural weather specialist with the firm.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged up on Wednesday, with the Dow rising for the ninth straight session to another record, buoyed by surprisingly strong retail sales that suggested the economy is gaining momentum.

The Dow Jones industrial average's nine-day winning streak is the longest consecutive run since November 1996.

But trading volume was light. Moves have been muted in recent days as investors consolidate positions after a strong run-up in the first three months of the year. Still, weakness in stocks has been met with buying, which helped propel the market's advance.

The broader S&P 500 is within striking distance of its all-time closing high of 1,565.15 and about 1 percent away from all-time intraday high of 1,576.09 - both set in 2007.

"I think we will soon see the S&P at all-time high levels. I don't think the market has topped yet, and there is still strength to move the market higher," said Ari Wald, technical strategist at C&Co/PrinceRidge in New York.

"Will we see a correction of 10 percent or so soon? Not imminently. We have not seen a divergence of behavior yet where participants become more selective on which stocks to buy."

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 5.22 points, or 0.04 percent, to 14,455.28, another record closing high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 2.04 points, or 0.13 percent, to 1,554.52. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.80 points, or 0.09 percent, to end at 3,245.12.

Signs of strength in the economy and the Federal Reserve's easy monetary policy have helped U.S. equities accelerate their advance. The blue-chip Dow is up 10.3 percent for the year and the benchmark S&P 500 index has gained 9 percent.

Wednesday's retail sales report reinforced the view that the U.S. economy has momentum, even with the obstacles the recovery is facing. Sales increased 1.1 percent in February, the largest increase since September.

Investors had been looking for signs of any impact on spending from stubbornly high unemployment and a higher payroll tax that went into effect at the start of the year.

Brent Crude Oil - NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil fell on Tuesday after seesawing with the euro and the dollar, and as OPEC's trimmed forecast for U.S. and euro zone economic growth also applied pressure.

Brent April crude fell 57 cents, or 0.52 percent, to settle at $109.65 a barrel, having traded from $109.30 to $111.20.

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1.5 percent on technical selling and talk of slowing demand from top global soy buyer China, traders said.

* The most-active May soybean contract fell for a second straight session, dropping below its 20-day moving average to settle at its lowest level since March 1.

 

·         Market pressured by weakening cash soybean bids in the  U.S. Pacific Northwest, which signaled a slowdown in export  demand as the South American harvest progresses. Cash bids for   soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf also eased. 

 

·         Nearby soybean contracts lost to back months on spreads, eroding some of the premiums that shorter-dated contracts have  built up amid concerns about historically tight U.S. supplies.

 

·         The spring weather pattern for the United States looks  greatly improved from a year ago, when drought was both  widespread and severe, AccuWeather said in its 2013 U.S. spring weather outlook.

 

·         Losses in soyoil limited by firming U.S. cash values.

·         Egypt's Meditrade issued an international tender to purchase up to 15,000 tonnes of soyoil and 15,000 tonnes of  sunflower oil, European traders said. 

 

·         CBOT said deliveries against March futures included five  contracts of soybeans, one for soymeal and three for soyoil. 

BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to a two-month low on Wednesday as weakness persisted in overseas soybean markets, although traders said easing palm oil output should provide some support.

U.S. soybean prices have been pressured by weak export demand, which also weighed on soybean oil, with China's soybean oil losing more than 3 percent so far this week.

Palm oil tends to track soybean oil prices closely as the commodities are used as substitutes for one another. But traders said a decline in production in February that may continue this month could provide some support for palm oil prices.

"Liquidation persists in futures, although some traders think it is funds-related," said a trader with a commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "The well-advertised supply constraints should keep fundamentals intact."

By Wednesday's close, the benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had dropped 0.6 percent to 2,397 ringgit ($773) per tonne, slightly above its intraday low of 2,365 ringgit, a level unseen since January 14.

Total traded volume stood at 31,784 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

But despite short-term weakness, market participants said palm oil fundamentals remained intact, on hopes that stocks will continue to ease on lower production and a demand recovery.

Malaysian palm oil stocks fell to 2.44 million tonnes in February from 2.58 million in January, thanks largely to a near 20 percent drop in production. 

Export demand for the March 1-10 period was flat with a month ago, with traders now shifting their focus to the March 1-15 data due on Friday for a better indication of the demand trend.

Crude palm oil shipments fell by more than half after Malaysia raised its export tax for the grade to 4.5 percent from zero percent. Top rival Indonesia increased its tariff to 10.5 percent from 9 percent for the month.

In other markets, Brent futures eased on Wednesday as Asian equities lost ground on concerns their recent rally was running out of steam, but expectations of steady global consumption growth and a surprise fall in U.S. stockpiles held the benchmark above $109 a barrel.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery edged down 0.4 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange lost 1.8 percent.

Regional Equities - BANGKOK, March 13 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday as weaknesses in Asia weighed on appetite for risk assets, with losses in large-caps and financials pulling Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia down to their lowest close in nearly a week.

Singapore' Straits Times Index was down 0.4 percent at 3288.52, paring gains from the past two sessions. Jakarta's Composite Index (JCI) slid 0.4 percent to 4,835.44, playing catch-up with regional losses, after being shut on Tuesday.

CIMB strategists maintained an 'overweight' rating on Indonesia and kept its JCI index target at 5,100, reflecting its earnings upgrades of listed firms.

"An upward earnings revision for the second month in a row in February by 1 percent was rewarded with an impressive 8 percent gain in the JCI during the month," they wrote in a report dated March 12.

"We stay overweight for now, betting on further earnings upside. Our March picks center mainly on mid- and small-cap growth and value stocks in property and banking," it said.

Shares in PT Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk, among CIMB's top picks in March, eased 0.5 percent to 9,900 rupiah. The stock hit a record close of 10,050 rupiah on Feb. 28.

Kuala Lumpur's Composite Index , Asia's worst performer this year, fell 0.6 percent to 1,646.22. Among losers, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd shed nearly 2 percent.

In Singapore, Keppel Corp Ltd was down 1.1 percent after the world's largest builder of offshore oil rigs lost a deal worth $1.2 billion.

After a rangebound session, the Thai index ended up 0.13 percent at 1,578.70, a new 19-year closing high. The Philippine index was down 0.15 percent at 6,776.56 while Vietnam fell for a second day, down 0.5 percent.