Bloomberg - Europe Weighs Cyprus’s Fate After Lawmakers Reject Deal

European policy makers must weigh how far to push Cyprus after lawmakers in the Mediterranean nation rejected an unprecedented levy on bank deposits, throwing into limbo a rescue package designed to keep it in the euro.

Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden called for the 17 euro-area finance ministers to reconvene “as soon as possible” to cobble together a new package. The European Central Bank, whose Governing Council meets today in Frankfurt, will also have to decide whether to give Cyprus more time or consider cutting off liquidity to the country’s banks.

“This is not a good result -- neither for Cyprus, nor for the euro zone, and we have to look together for alternatives to the negotiated package,” Frieden said yesterday in a phone interview from Frankfurt. He called the vote “very sad news,” though said the decision by its parliament must be respected.

Cyprus’s rejection came after days of recrimination sparked by European plans to force depositors in the country to shoulder part of the bailout with their savings. Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades returned from marathon talks on March 16 saying the alternative would be the “indescribable misery” of the ECB cutting off funding to one of its banks.

“What matters now is to undertake all necessary measures to ensure the stability of the euro zone,” Frieden said.

Read all : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/europe-weighs-cyprus-s-fate-after-lawmakers-reject-bailout-deal.html

Bloomberg - Brent Oil Rebounds From Three-Month Low; Premium to WTI Widens

Brent oil rebounded from the lowest level in three months, widening its premium to West Texas Intermediate crude for the first time in four days.

Brent futures rose as much as 0.4 percent after sliding 1.9 percent yesterday, the biggest decline since November. WTI was little changed near a one-week low. Brent’s premium fell to the narrowest in almost eight months yesterday after Cyprus rejected a bank levy linked to a bailout, sparking concern Europe’s debt crisis will worsen. U.S. crude stockpiles slid by 413,000 barrels last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. A government report today is forecast to show inventories increased for a ninth week.

“Some people are betting that we’ve got a low point here and are getting back into the market,” said Victor Shum, the managing director of IHS Consulting in Singapore. “I still expect some volatility, but what’s stopping a further slide is that enough people in the market believe that the Cyprus situation will get resolved.”

Read all : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/wti-oil-trades-near-one-week-low-u-s-crude-stockpiles-decline.html

RTRS - China’s soybean stocks at undesirably low levels-Oil World

HAMBURG, March 19 (Reuters) - China’s soybean stocks are at low levels despite its recent decision to cancel soybean import orders and the country’s March imports may be below its needs, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“Chinese stocks of imported soybeans declined pronouncedly during the past three to five months and are continuing at undesirably low levels also in March and April owing to the ongoing shipment delays in South America, at least for the time being,” Oil World said.

“Combined U.S. and South American soybean shipments in March will again be below the Chinese requirements. In other words, at the moment Chinese importers cannot get what they purchased.”

Soybean prices have been falling in the last week, partly on slower demand for U.S. supplies as the huge new Brazilian crop starts to enter the global market.

But limited transport infrastructure combined with the threat of more strikes at ports have so far limited Brazil's ability to export a crop that is some 25 percent bigger than last year.

Expecting shipment delays, China, the world's top soybean consumer, cancelled at least two cargoes of Brazilian soybeans in February and likely reneged on more orders this month, traders said.

But Chinese buyers had little choice than to accept postponement of soybean shipments from Brazil in the face of transport problems, Oil World said.

“The Chinese know very well how to influence the market,” Oil World said. “They made announcements about cancellations of soybean purchases as well as of deteriorating profitability in the domestic pork industry, which may slow down soybean crushings and thus soybean import requirements.”

This contributed to a change of sentiment in soybean futures market, helping to create weakness, Oil World said.

“The Chinese situation would be more comfortable if the reduced Chinese soybean stocks could be replenished sufficiently until May, providing a hedge against any weather problems and crop risks in the United States,” Oil World said.

Brazilian exports of soybeans are increasing seasonally but latest indications suggest that in March also soybean exports from Brazil will again fall short of consumer requirements, it said.

“There is ongoing competition between exports of soybeans and corn,” it said.

In neighbouring Argentina, the soybean crop still faces weather risks, it said.

“There is the risk that this year’s Argentine crop will turn out below our latest estimate of 49.0 million tonnes,” it said.

Argentina harvested 39.9 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2012. The Argentine government currently forecasts a 2013 crop of 51 million to 52 million tonnes. 

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 19 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 fell for a third day on Tuesday but pared losses late in the day after the parliament of Cyprus rejected a proposed tax on bank deposits.

The proposed tax on savings in banks had been a condition of a European bailout. When the Cypriot parliament rejected the tax, the decision eased worries that savers will begin withdrawing funds. At the same time, it left efforts to rescue the country - the latest casualty of the euro-zone debt crisis - up in the air.

"Regardless of the vote in Cyprus, we still have the problem. No one knows: 'What is the Cypriot financial restructuring going to look like?'" sad Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group, in New York.

Banks in Cyprus will remain closed until Thursday.

The S&P 500's retreat followed a long streak of gains where the index came close to hitting its all-time closing high set in 2007. The S&P 500 is still on track to post its best quarter in a year. The benchmark S&P 500 is up 8.4 percent for the year, while the Dow is up 10.3 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average edged up 3.76 points, or 0.03 percent, to close at 14,455.82.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index  fell 3.76 points, or 0.24 percent, to finish at 1,548.34. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 8.50 points, or 0.26 percent, to close at 3,229.10.

European bank shares extended Monday's decline, with the sector's index down 2.1 percent on Tuesday.

"Whether the deposit levy occurs or not, the fact that it was agreed to by the EU means that claims on private property are not out of bounds, which pretty much says that nothing is out of bounds," said Fred Copper, senior portfolio manager, international equity, at Boston-based Columbia Management, in reference to the banking crisis in Cyprus.

U.S. economic data added to upbeat views on the housing sector. Housing starts data showed that groundbreaking to build new U.S. homes climbed in February and new permits for construction rose to their highest since 2008, in a sign the U.S. housing market's recovery was building momentum.

Brent and Crude Oil - NEW YORK, March 19 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil fell 2 percent to a three-month low under $108 a barrel on Tuesday as uncertainty over a bailout for Cyprus raised concern about the euro zone debt crisis and its impact on energy demand.

Cypriot lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected a deeply unpopular tax on bank deposits on Tuesday, throwing into doubt an international bailout for the troubled euro zone member, needed to avert default and a banking collapse.

The tax proposal, announced over the weekend as a condition of the bailout, has renewed investor concern about the euro zone's ability to tackle its debt crisis, causing stock markets and oil prices to fall this week. Gold and other safe haven assets rose.

"The situation in Cyprus, although small, goes to show that the problems in the EU are far from over and it will exacerbate declining demand," said Natixis analyst Abhishek Deshpande in London.

Brent crude for May delivery touched a three-month low of $107.25 and settled down $2.06, or 1.88 percent, at $107.45 a barrel.

U.S. crude for April delivery settled down $1.58 at $92.16 a barrel.

The spread between the two leading global oil benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (U.S. crude) contracted to $14.61 at one point during Tuesday's trading, the narrowest level since mid-January

The U.S. dollar firmed by 0.3 percent against a basket of foreign currencies. A stronger greenback can help to weaken oil since the dollar-denominated commodity becomes more costly for holders of other currencies.

The result of the vote in Cyprus could also affect oil if it causes a swing in exchange rates, said Tony Machacek, an oil futures broker at Jefferies Bache in London.

"If the euro makes a dramatic move, it will influence oil," he said.

The single currency was down by 0.6 percent against the dollar and traded below $1.29 for the first time since December.

CBOT Soybean - March 19 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a sixth straight session on Tuesday, erasing early gains on long liquidation ahead of a key U.S. government report next week and pressure from the ongoing Brazilian soy harvest, traders said.

• May soybeans hit a one-month low at $14.03.

• Spread activity was mixed, with May soybeans gaining against July while July lost premium against new-crop November. Traders said July gained against November until roughly the last half-hour of trading, during which the premium for July fell by 10 cents.

• Traders have been liquidating long positions and unwinding bull-spreads ahead of USDA's March 28 reports on U.S. quarterly stocks and 2013 prospective plantings.

• An official at China’s Sunrise Group said the firm will cancel almost 2 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans because shipments have been delayed due to port congestion in the South American nation.

• However, Hamburg-based analyst Oil World reported that China’s soybean stocks are at low levels and the country’s March imports may be below its needs.

• Argentine exports of soyoil-based biodiesel are falling because of trade friction with the European Union, and Argentina is instead exporting more soyoil - Oil World.

• Below-normal temperatures and wetter weather are expected in the U.S. crop belt over at least the next two weeks, which may slow early spring fieldwork and corn plantings - meteorologist.

ARGENTINA Soybean - BUENOS AIRES, March 19 (Reuters) - Argentina's closing soy prices and trends on Tuesday:

• In the main grains market of Rosario, soy closed unchanged at 1,610 ($316) per tonne after a volatile day's trade by U.S. soy futures that stripped the local market of its usual direction.

• Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a sixth straight session on Tuesday, erasing early gains on long liquidation ahead of a key U.S. government report next week and pressure from the ongoing Brazilian soy harvest, traders said.

• Rosario soy for delivery in May, which is quoted in U.S. dollars, also closed stable at $320 per tonne.

• Argentina's 2013/14 wheat crop should be bigger than the previous season's as high prices and forecasts for ideal weather counter-balance uncertainty over government export curbs, farmers and analysts said. 

BMD CPO  - SINGAPORE, March 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Tuesday on bargain-hunting a day after a radical Cyprus bailout proposal had prompted declines, although gains were capped as uncertainty remained ahead of a vote on the plan.

Cyprus was set to reject a divisive tax on bank deposits in a vote on Tuesday, pushing the island closer to a debt default and banking collapse. The proposal announced over the weekend triggered declines in the global commodities and financial markets on Monday.

Palm oil traders were also looking ahead to Malaysia's March 1-20 export data on Wednesday for better indication of export demand after nearly flat growth in shipments for the first half of the month.

"Market players are hoping for higher exports to help ease stocks further," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. The country's palm inventory level fell to 2.44 million tonnes in February from January's 2.58 million tonnes on seasonally slower production.

By market close, the benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 1.3 percent to 2,417 ringgit ($777) per tonne. Prices traded in a range between 2,397 to 2,426 ringgit.

Total traded volume stood at 31,142 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil futures also drew some support from stronger soybean and soybean oil prices, after the oilseed edged higher on supply concerns from South America.

Palm oil tracks soybean oil prices closely as they are typically used as substitutes for one another.

In other markets, Brent crude fell below $109 a barrel on Tuesday as uncertainty over the Cyprus bailout plan revived concerns about the euro zone debt crisis, although a rosier economic outlook in the United States capped losses.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery gained 0.1 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange also gained 0.8 percent.

Regional Equities - March 19 (Reuters) - Thailand and Philippine stocks fell on Tuesday led by banks as uncertainty over a bailout for Cyprus aimed at preventing a debt default and banking collapse hit sentiment, but others edged up helped by a decision to give Cyprus more flexibility.

Thailand , the region's best performer this year, fell 1.5 percent to its lowest since March 8, with a 2.7 percent loss in Siam Commercial Bank PCL dragging the overall index. Kasikornbank PCL and Bangkok Bank PCL also lost more than 1.7 percent each.

Thailand saw a net foreign outflow of $32.83 million with a broad-based selling in overbought small caps such as Italian Thai Development Pcl , which dropped 8.7 percent after a combined 32 percent gain over the past seven sessions.

Citibank said in research note there would be significant consequences ranging from bank default to capital flight if Cyprus' banks did not get the bailout from emergency liquidity assistance (ELA).

The Philippines lost 1.7 percent, led by financials, to a more than six-week low, falling for a seventh straight session. It has lost 6.4 percent since hitting an all-time high of 6,867.10 on March 11.

Euro zone confidence was partially restored by a news on Monday that the Eurogroup decided to give Cyprus more flexibility over a bank levy which is part of the bailout conditions, after a teleconference of euro zone finance ministers.

That helped others to recover from the previous session's steep falls, with Malaysia and Vietnam gaining 0.3 percent each, while Indonesia and Singapore  gained 0.4 percent each.

Bloomberg - WTI Rises to One-Month High on Flexibility Over Cyprus

West Texas Intermediate crude advanced to the highest level in almost a month after European policy makers signaled flexibility on the application of an unprecedented bank tax in Cyprus.

Futures rose for a third day as European officials said Cyprus could ease the cost of the bank-savings levy to small depositors. Outrage over the tax threatened to derail a bailout and worsen Europe’s debt crisis. It sent crude down 1.8 percent in intraday trading before the rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed a 100-point loss and the euro reduced a decline against the dollar. Oil also gained after failing to sustain a move below its 100- and 200-day moving averages.

“It’s not the end of the world for Europe,” said Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors. “People are waiting to see how it plays out. The equity market has come back pretty strong and the dollar is off its highs.”

Read all : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/wti-drops-from-three-week-high-on-cyprus-crisis.html

RTRS - Frost hits Argentine soy fields, some yield loss expected

BUENOS AIRES, March 18 (Reuters) - A sudden blast of Arctic air shocked late-planted soy fields in parts of Argentina's main grains province Buenos Aires over the weekend, putting pressure on harvest expectations in one of the world's top exporters of beans and soy byproducts.

The government expects a harvest of 51 million to 52 million tonnes of soybeans while consumer nations - in need of food supplies after disappointing grains crops in the United States, Russia and Australia - are counting on South American breadbaskets Brazil and Argentina to provide ample harvests.

Temperatures of 0 to 2 degrees Celsius (32-36 degrees Fahrenheit), unusually low for Argentina's late summer season, hit southern Buenos Aires on Saturday morning. The frosts returned on Sunday, concentrated in the southwestern part of the province.

"Surely it has done damage, especially to the very late planted soybeans that went into the ground in December. But we can't measure the damage for another seven to 10 days, when the damaged plants will turn from green to brown," said Anthony Deane, head of consultancy Weather-Wise Argentina.

Aside from being the No. 1 exporter of soyoil, used in the booming international biofuels sector, and soymeal animal feed, Argentina is the world's No. 3 supplier of soybeans and corn.

Its 2012/13 corn crop is not as likely to be damaged by the cold snap as corn fields are well past the flowering stages during which plants are most vulnerable to frost.

The government expects a 2012/13 corn crop of 27 million tonnes. More than 12 percent of the country's corn harvest has been collected, and soy harvesting is just getting started.

"This drop in temperatures could strengthen the probability that Argentina's soybean harvest will come in at the low end of expectations," said David Hughes, who manages soy, corn and wheat farms in Buenos Aires.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange expects Argentina to harvest 48.5 million tonnes of soybeans this season and 25 million tonnes of corn. Both estimates are down from earlier projections due to the difficult and widely oscillating weather.

The Pampas grains belt started the 2012/13 season with hard rains that flooded wide swathes of farmland. The same areas were parched by excessively dry, hot weather later in the season.

Argentina's record large soy harvest was 52.7 tonnes in the 2009/10 crop year, and a record high 23.8 million tonnes of corn were produced in the 2010/11 season. 

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Monday after a plan to tax bank accounts in Cyprus to help pay for the country's bailout stoked worries that it could threaten the stability of financial institutions in the euro zone.

The move pushed the S&P 500 farther from its 2007 record closing high of 1,565.15 after the index came within striking distance of the level last week.

Financial stocks led the day's decline, with the S&P 500 financial index down 1 percent, following a steep slide in European bank shares. JPMorgan Chase fell 1 percent to $49.51.

Cypriot ministers were trying to revise a plan to seize money from bank deposits before a parliamentary vote on Tuesday that will secure the island's financial rescue or could lead to its default. 

European officials have said the measure is a one-off for a country that accounts for just 0.2 percent of European output. The fear is that savers in larger European countries will become nervous and start withdrawing funds, although there was no immediate sign of that on Monday.

"There are worries about whether there will be any spillover from the Cyprus situation," said Nick Sargen, chief investment officer at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati, which oversees more than $45 billion.

"Will authorities be able to convince markets that this proposal is only for this unique situation, for such a small country where the banking system is more of a tax shelter? If they can’t, that might cause new concerns about Europe’s banking system."

The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 62.05 points, or 0.43 percent, to 14,452.06 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index shed 8.60 points, or 0.55 percent, to 1,552.10. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 11.48 points, or 0.35 percent, to close at 3,237.59.

Brent and Crude Oils - NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil slipped to near $109 a barrel on Monday after touching a three-month low, as a plan to tax bank accounts in debt-laden Cyprus sparked fears of further turmoil in the euro zone.

Prices fell as low as $107.78 a barrel in early trade, a level last hit in mid-December, but recovered after stronger employment data in the United States bolstered the outlook for energy demand.

Saudi Arabia's top oil official also said the current price won't hurt the economy, indicating the world's largest crude exporter sees little need to add additional supplies.

Brent crude settled down 31 cents at $109.51 per barrel after trading between $107.78 and $109.83 during the session.

U.S. oil fell to a low of $91.76 a barrel before reversing losses, settling 29 cents higher at $93.74 a barrel.

Oil markets will remain volatile for the next few days as investors watch for any spillover of the developments in Cyprus to other euro zone nations, analysts said.

Cypriot ministers were trying to revise a plan to seize money from bank deposits before a parliamentary vote on Tuesday that will secure the island's financial rescue or could lead to its default, with reverberations across the euro zone.

"Although Cyprus is small, there was some concern that it was being made a test case for policy," said Tim Evans at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

"The strong initial reaction has policy makers backpedaling from the deposit tax idea, but it may be hard for markets to forget the risk."

Gold rose to a two-week high above $1,600 an ounce and the U.S. dollar firmed as investors sought out safer assets. A stronger U.S. currency can weaken dollar-priced commodities like oil as they become more expensive for overseas buyers. 

LOSSES STEMMED

Further losses in oil were stopped by expectations of a stronger economy in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, and comments from Saudi Arabia's top energy official that oil prices near current levels won't hurt demand.

Almost all U.S. states began 2013 with lower unemployment rates than they had at the start of 2012, according to Labor Department data.

Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi said current oil prices will have no impact on growth in Asia. The region's biggest economies, including China, have struggled with rising energy costs in their efforts to boost growth.

Worries of an escalation in a standoff between the West and Iran over Tehran's disputed nuclear program could also help ensure prices do not fall much further. Concerns of supply disruption from the Middle East have kept Brent largely above $100 a barrel since early 2011.

In Libya, armed clashes broke out at an oil field belonging to Libya's Waha Oil on Monday, where protesters seeking jobs had been blocking the site entrance for the last eight days.

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a fifth straight session on Monday, hitting a one-month low as export demand for U.S. soybeans slowed and the South American soy harvest expanded, traders said.

* Additional pressure spread across the commodities sector after an unusual bank bailout proposal for Cyprus threatened fresh euro zone turmoil, pushing traders to dump commodities and buy gold as a hedge.

·         USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 8.927 million bushels, below a range of trade expectations for 13 million to 27 million bushels.

·         Long liquidation noted ahead of USDA's prospective   plantings and quarterly stocks reports on March 28.

 

·         Soybean spot basis bids fell as much as 10 cents per   bushel at processing plants around the U.S. Midwest early on Monday amid poor profit margins and a slowdown in the soybean crush, dealers said.

 

·         Freezing temperatures hit southern Buenos Aires over the  weekend and may have hurt some late-planted soybeans, but the   extent of damage will not be known for a week or so, a local  forecaster said.

BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on Monday, as traders turned cautious after a radical bailout proposal for Cyprus rattled investors and triggered a broad-based decline in commodities and financial markets.

Euro zone finance ministers asked Cyprus savers to forfeit a portion of their deposits in return for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout for the island, sparking fears of fresh turmoil in the euro zone and worries about global demand.

"It seems like Europe is back to the headlines for the wrong reasons," said Ker Chung Yang, investment analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore. "We have probably seen the last of the rally last week, and this week could be the beginning of a downturn or corrections in the commodities market."

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.4 percent to close at 2,383 ringgit ($761) per tonne, also its low for the day. Prices traded in a tight range between 2,383 to 2,415 ringgit.

Total traded volume stood at 27,137 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil futures also continued to come under pressure from a weak soy market, which is suffering from poor U.S. demand and higher South American supply, losing 1.4 percent last week.

But seasonally lower output in Malaysia may help ease palm oil stocks and support prices, especially after cargo surveyor data on Friday showed firm export demand.

Malaysian palm oil shipments for the first half of the month were slightly better compared to the same period last month, with cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance reporting a 0.2 and 4.6 percent increase respectively.

In other markets, crude oil dropped to below $109 a barrel on Monday as stock markets tumbled and the dollar strengthened on the bank bailout proposal for Cyprus.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery lost 0.8 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange also dropped 0.4 percent.

Regional Equities - March 18 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks ended weaker on Monday, following Asian peers as nervous investors shifted to safer heavens after a radical bailout plan for Cyprus dented the appetite for risky assets globally.

Cyprus and international lenders agreed at the weekend that savers in the island's outsized banking system would take a hit in return for the offer of $13.07 billion in aid, breaking with the earlier European Union practice that depositors' savings were sacrosanct and raising fears it could set a precedent for future euro zone bail outs.

The Philippine lost 1.8 percent to a near five-week low of 6,536.18 with a 4.3 percent loss in SM Investment Corp

Thailand  fell 0.4 percent to 1,591.65 from a 19-year high of 1,598.13 hit in the previous session, led by a 2 percent fall in PTT Global Chemical Pcl (PTTGC)

Malaysia , the region's worst performer so far this year, fell 0.4 percent to a near four-week low of 1,621.36. Kuala Lumpur has seen the highest foreign inflow in the region, data showed on Monday.

Indonesia , the region's best performer in terms of foreign inflows, fell 0.3 percent to 4,802.83.

Jakarta-based analysts said concerns over the Cyprus bailout and a weak regional market, along with high domestic inflation dragged the market down.

Vietnam , the region's best performer and the smallest bourse, edged down 0.5 percent, while Singapore fell 0.9 percent to a near two-week low.

RTRS - Snow and rain help inch U.S. crop belt out of drought

CHICAGO, March 15 (Reuters) - Increased rainfall and some snow are expected by the weekend and again late next week in the northern U.S. Midwest and southern portions of the region, which will add valuable soil moisture ahead of spring seedings of corn and soybeans, an agricultural meteorologist said on Friday.

The extended drought last summer, the worst in 50 years, slashed more than 25 percent of the projected bushels of corn crop per acre, cutting supplies in the United States to the current 17-year low.

"From 4 to 8 inches of snow or roughly 0.50 inch to 0.75 inch of moisture equivalent is expected in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Wisconsin," said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA Weather Services. "It certainly will add soil moisture."

Keeney also said warmer weather this week in the U.S. Plains hard red winter wheat region will be replaced by colder weather next week.

"Much of the crop in the far south broke dormancy this week," he said, "but I think with the colder weather next week, there won't be much emergence (break from dormancy) from central Kansas into Nebraska."

Winter snowfall and recent rains have helped add soil moisture to the drought-stricken Plains wheat and cattle-grazing region, but more rain is needed to bring soil moisture levels back to normal, Keeney and others said.

Commodity Weather Group meteorologist Joel Widenor said the weekend showers and snow would ease the drought a bit in the northwestern Midwest, and showers over the next two weeks would help in the Plains.

But "the southwestern Plains will rely on recent improvements in topsoil moisture to support spring growth of winter wheat," Widenor said.

"Early corn seeding in the Delta and Southeast will slow occasionally due to showers and intermittent cool weather over the next two weeks, but only minor interruptions are anticipated," he said.

Drought continued to retreat in many areas of the U.S. Plains as snow and rainfall replenished parched soils and gave farmers and ranchers an improved outlook for better crop and livestock conditions, according to a report issued on Thursday.

Eight U.S. states continued to suffer from the worst level of drought, dubbed "exceptional" by the Drought Monitor, a report issued by a consortium of state and federal climatologists each week. But many saw improvement.

Keeney said that as of March 9, about 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 cm) of rain were needed in Kansas, the top producer of hard red winter wheat, to bring the state out of drought status.

That was an improvement from early February when about 4 inches to 6 inches (10 to 15 cm) of rain was needed.

Up to 8 inches (20 cm) was needed in a pocket of severe dryness in northeastern Kansas, a big corn- and grain sorghum-growing area. Similar amounts were needed in nearly the eastern third of Nebraska.

Northwest Iowa and south-central Minnesota needed from 4 to 6 inches (10 to 15 cm) to get soils back to normal moisture levels.

Near-normal soil moisture was seen in most of Missouri and all of Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged lower on Friday, weighed by a decline in JPMorgan Chase shares after the bank was hit by a one-two punch of bad news and as investors paused just below the S&P 500's record high.

The widely watched index was about 6 points away from its record closing high of 1,565.15, set in October 2007, after failing to break above that level on Thursday.

Friday's dip also meant the Dow was on track to snap its 10-day winning streak during which it racked up a series of all-time highs. Equities have rallied since the start of the year on signs of improvement in the economy and supported by the Federal Reserve's efforts to bolster the recovery.

"It seems like the market is digesting some of the rally that we have seen so far, but when we reflect on the current valuation which is 13 1/2 times earnings on a forward looking basis, it is still a comfortable level compared to around 20 in 2007 and 29-30 levels in 2000," said David Lyon, Investment Specialist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, based in San Francisco.

JPMorgan Chase & Co was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 and one of the biggest weights on the Dow, falling 2.2 percent to $49.87.

The Federal Reserve told JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Group Inc that they must fix flaws in how they determine capital payouts to shareholders, though the central bank still approved their plans for share buybacks and dividends.

A Senate report alleged that JPMorgan had ignored risks, misled investors, fought with regulators and tried to work around rules as it dealt with mushrooming losses in a derivatives portfolio. A former top JPMorgan official told lawmakers on Friday she was not to blame for the losses.

In contrast, Goldman shares recovered from early weakness to gain 0.3 percent to $154.58. The stock of rival Bank of America rose 3.9 percent to $12.58. The S&P financial sector index edged up 0.3 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 49.40 points, or 0.34 percent, at 14,489.74. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 4.96 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,558.27. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 13.44 points, or 0.41 percent, at 3,245.49.

Brent and Crude Oils - NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures settled higher on Friday, driven by strong U.S. industrial output data in the world's largest oil consumer and a weaker U.S. dollar.

The weaker dollar buffered oil prices from declining on the back of the U.S. stock market being knocked off its highs.

The dollar fell as investors opted to book profits after U.S. inflation data kept the door open for the Federal Reserve to continue its bond-buying program for the foreseeable future.

"The dollar is down a lot more in the last two days so hence the buoyancy in energy prices," said Walter Zimmermann, chief technical analyst with brokerage United ICAP in New York. "And energy prices are being insulated from stock market weakness by weakness in the dollar today."

Crude oil prices are denominated in U.S. dollars and when the value of the currency sinks, prices rise to offset the weakness.

STANDOFF

Iran was still more than a year from developing a nuclear weapon, Obama said in an interview with Israeli television broadcast on Thursday, six days before his visit to Israel.

Obama appeared to send a message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the need for patience with Washington's Iran strategy, while also showing U.S. resolve to confront Tehran if necessary.

Worries that the standoff between the West and Iran over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program will escalate and disrupt oil supplies have kept Brent above $100 a barrel through most of 2012 and this year.

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a fourth session on Friday as disappointing U.S. soybean crush data combined with pressure from the expanding South American harvest, traders said.

* The National Oilseed Processors Association reported the U.S. February soybean crush at 136.3 million bushels, below a range of trade estimates and down from 158.2 million in January.

  

• CBOT soyoil ended higher, supported by traders unwinding meal/oil spreads and by NOPA's February soyoil stocks figure of 2.790 billion lbs, a decline from 2.823 billion in January.

  

• For the week, May soybeans  SK3 fell 45 cents or 3.1 percent, the contract's biggest drop since early January. May soymeal  SMK3 fell 3.8 percent, ending a three-week climb, while May soyoil  BOK3 fell 0.8 percent, its third drop in four weeks.

• Allendale Inc survey projected U.S. 2013 soybean plantings at a record-high 78.324 million acres and corn plantings at 96.956 million acres. 

  

• Rain and some snow are expected by the weekend and again late next week in the northern U.S. Midwest, which will add valuable soil moisture ahead of spring planting. (Full Story)

  

• USDA said private exporters reported sales of 165,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2013/14.

  

• Malaysian palm oil futures rose on bargain-hunting after three straight sessions of losses, with traders expecting seasonally lower production and firm exports to help stocks ease further.

  

• CBOT reported no deliveries of soybeans, soymeal or soyoil.

BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday on bargain-hunting after three straight sessions of losses, with traders expecting seasonally lower production and firm exports to help stocks ease further.

Palm oil posted a loss of 1.3 percent for the week, weighed down by a weak soy market suffering from poor export demand and higher South American supply.

But market participants said they were still counting on a seasonal decline in output to help ease stocks and support prices, especially after cargo surveyor data on Friday showed firm export demand.

"We see some retracement in an oversold market," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "For the past few days external markets like Dalian and CBOT soybean oil were a little weak, but they have pulled back up a bit, so our market is adjusting to it."

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 2.2 percent to 2,415 ringgit ($774) per tonne by the market close. Prices fell to 2,360 ringgit on Thursday, the lowest level since Jan. 14.

Total traded volume stood at 35,268 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from March 1 to 15 inched up 0.2 percent to 675,210 tonnes from 673,555 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1 to 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Friday.

Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for April at 4.5 percent, unchanged from March, a government circular showed on Friday.

In other markets, Brent crude oil rose above $109 a barrel on Friday as strong U.S. jobs data fuelled hopes of a better outlook for demand in the world's top oil consumer, while concerns over supply from the Middle East added support. 

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery inched up 0.9 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange also gained 1.4 percent.

Regional equities - BANGKOK, March 15 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks were mostly higher on Friday, with Indonesia snapping three sessions of losses after the new central bank governor's view of low interest rates, and Thailand nearly touching the 1,600 mark on progress of infrastructure investment.

Jakarta's Composite Index finished up 0.7 percent at 4,819.32, trimming its loss on the week to 1.1 percent. It rallied almost 10 percent over the past six weeks, setting a record close of 4,874.50 on March 8.

Thai SET index  rose for the third session, ending up 0.7 percent at a 19-year closing high of 1,598.13. It gained almost 2 percent on the week, Southeast Asia's second best performer. Vietnam  led the region with a weekly gain of 2.3 percent.

Thai government's progress on plans for huge infrastructure investment has bolstered demand, with the cabinet set to meet next week to discuss 2 trillion baht ($67.5 billion) in spending.

Bucking the trend, Kuala Lumpur's Composite Index lost almost 1 percent to 1,627.64, the lowest close in more than two weeks. The Philippines eased 0.6 percent, extending losses for a fifth session, to 6,654.60.

Across the region, investors bought stocks with good earnings and yielding good dividends. In the Philippines, conglomerate Alliance Global Group Inc jumped 2.5 percent after it reported strong 2012 earnings.

Among bright spots, Thailand's SkyTrain operator BTS Group Holdings Pcl  jumped 3.4 percent following its plan to raise up to $2.1 billion by listing an infrastructure fund.

RTRS - NOPA February U.S. soy crush seen at 141.6 mln bushels

CHICAGO, March 14 (Reuters) - The National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soybean crush data scheduled for release on Friday should show the U.S. crush for February at 141.6 million bushels, a poll of seven analysts projected.

If realized, the figure would represent the largest NOPA February crush since 2010.

Trade estimates ranged from 138.3 million to 144.0 million bushels. NOPA reported the January crush at 158.195 million bushels, the second-largest monthly total in three years. The group reported the year-ago crush for February 2012 at 136.350 million bushels.

The average analyst estimate for NOPA's February U.S. soyoil stocks figure was 2.771 billion lbs, down from NOPA's January figure of 2.823 billion. The analysts' estimates ranged from 2.648 billion to 2.863 billion lbs.

NOPA reported year-ago February 2012 soyoil stocks at 2.242 billion lbs.

NOPA this year began releasing its data at noon EDT (1600 GMT) on the 15th of each month.