CHICAGO, July 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. corn crop has shrunk another 2.5 percent over the past week, but the modest decline suggests damage from the worst drought in half a century may be nearing an end, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday.
The soybean crop is also getting smaller, and hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest farm belt for the next two weeks could do more damage to the crop, according to the analysts.
The poll of 13 analysts found the U.S. corn crop will be the smallest in six years at 11.2 billion bushels, down 2.5 percent from a Reuters poll last week. Yield was pegged at 129 bushels per acre, the lowest in 14 years and down 1.5 percent from last week.
The analysts expect soybean yield per acre to be 38.1 bushels, down 1.2 percent from last week and the lowest figure in nine years. They see soy production at 2.834 billion bushels, down 2.2 percent from last week and a four-year low.
"It's going down, headed for the bottom. The worst-case scenario would be the '88 analog, which would put current corn yields at 118 (bushels per acre), but we don't think we're there yet," said Tim Emslie, director of research for Country Hedging.
"Corn pollination was a real problem and it's difficult to quantify yet how much didn't get pollinated and the degree of poor pollination," he said.
Expansion of the drought and relentless heat in the central and western Midwest is beginning to eat away at soybean production prospects as that crop moves into its critical pod-setting stage of development.
Crop conditions have been declining daily as 90 to 100 degree (Fahrenheit) temperatures in America's breadbasket bake crops that have received miniscule amounts of rain.
A U.S. government report on Monday showed the worst conditions for corn and soybeans since the disastrous drought of 1988.
In addition to dropping their yield forecasts due to the drought's impact, the analysts were beginning to measure the potential acreage that will not be harvested as farmers abandon crops that are not worth garnering.
"At this point, the condition ratings don't mean all that much. The real debate now is how much will be harvested. The number of abandoned acres is the big question," said Chris Manns, analyst for Traders Group Inc.
USDA in its July crop report estimated corn acreage for harvest at 88.9 million, but analysts are slashing their forecasts. Sid Love of Kropf-Love Consulting sees harvested acreage at only 86.9 million.
"The next big question is abandonment, just how bad is that going to be," said Sterling Smith, analyst for Citigroup.
Current weather forecasts indicate further crop losses for corn and soy growing in the central and western U.S. Midwest and in the Delta, or roughly two-thirds of the U.S. crop belt.
Corn prospects have been plunging rapidly and soybeans are now likely to suffer big losses, the analysts said.
"The market remains somewhat optimistic that soybean yield potential in the Delta and eastern Corn Belt will compensate for yield losses in the west," said Ken Smithmier, analyst for The Hightower Report.
"However, the next two weeks will be the most critical period for the U.S. soybean crop, and the August forecast remains troublesome," he said.
