Wednesday, August 1, 2012

RTRS- US soy yields risk further fall if no rain -FCStone

MELBOURNE, July 31 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean yields may fall to as low as 34-35 bushels per acre if no rains fall on the drought-stricken crop in the next two weeks, an official at New-York based trading firm INTL FCStone said on Tuesday.

U.S. soybean yields were currently forecast at between 37-38 bushels per acre, Peter Nessler Jr., executive vice president commodities, told Reuters at a grains conference in Melbourne.

"If we don't get much rain between July and August, yields could fall as low 34-35 bushels per acre," he said.

New crop U.S. corn yields were probably around 132-138 bushels per acre, he added.

"Though there are some people who think we could go as low as 125, which would be fairly catastrophic," Nessler said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its corn yield estimate to 146 bushels per acre in June, while forecasting soybean yields at 40.5 bushels per acre.

The U.S. drought has fired up grains markets over the past six weeks, lifting corn and soybean prices to record highs earlier this month.

Corn and soybean conditions in the U.S. Midwest deteriorated further last week as the most expansive drought in more than 50 years ate away at crop yields in major producing states including Iowa and Illinois, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report after the market closed on Monday.

Nessler said that if dry weather in the U.S. Midwest persisted further, "$20 per bushel soybeans, are not out of the question."

The most actively traded November soy SX2 contract was trading at $16.40 a bushel in Asian trade on Tuesday.