HAMBURG, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Growth
in global biodiesel production is starting to weaken after being strong for
years, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“The growth dynamics have been lost
in July/December 2012, when many important producers reduced their output of
biodiesel,” Oil World said. “This is true primarily for Argentina and the
United States but also to a smaller extent for Brazil and the European Union.”
Global calendar-year 2012 biodiesel
production will still rise by 0.9 million tonnes on the year to 22.92 million
tonnes, the firm forecast. But this rise would be down strongly from the 3.7
million tonne increase in 2011 and the average 2.9 million tonne rise in the
previous five years.
Record high soybean prices this
summer, due to poor U.S. and South American crops, have reduced the
attractiveness of soyoil-based biodiesel, Oil World said.
Also the European Commission, in a
major policy shift in September, said it planned to limit food crop-based
biofuels to 5 percent of consumption after criticism that biofuel output was
responsible for rising global food prices. European biofuel producers say this
could devastate their business and bring an end to production of biodiesel from
rapeseed in Europe.
EU 2012 biodiesel output will fall
to 9.0 million tonnes from 9.13 million in 2011, ending a long period of
growth, Oil World said.
U.S. 2012 biodiesel production will
still rise to 3.48 million tonnes from 3.29 million tonnes in 2011, but
July/December 2012 output is likely to fall by 0.36 million tonnes on the year,
and the outlook for 2013 is not positive, it said.
"Given the shortage of U.S.
soyoil supplies in 2012/13, it will be difficult to bring biodiesel production
to the required level,” it said.
Argentina's 2012 output will rise to
2.45 million tonnes from 2.43 million in 2011, it said, but this will be down
from a 0.6 million tonne increase in 2011.
“Biodiesel producers (in Argentina)
are currently facing a sharp decline in export sales and a massive reduction of
domestic consumption of biodiesel,” it said.
High soyoil prices following the
poor 2012 soybean harvest will mean Brazil’s 2012 biodiesel output will fall to
2.29 million tonnes from 2.35 million in 2011, it said.
Brazil’s government may raise compulsory
biodiesel blending levels in 2013, improving the outlook for Brazilian
producers, it said.
“Future EU biodiesel policies could
have a major impact on the Argentine export outlook and thus on actual
biodiesel production,” Oil World said.
