Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, led by gains in technology companies, helping the S&P 500 end at its highest level since Election Day.

A 2.2 percent gain to $541.39 in Apple's stock lifted the Nasdaq, as the largest U.S. company by market value rebounded from a week in which investors took profits before a possible tax rise next year. Prior to Tuesday's trading, Apple shares had lost 25 percent from an all-time intraday high hit in September.

Stocks pared some gains by late afternoon as more news on the "fiscal cliff" negotiations emerged. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said it will be difficult to reach agreement resolving the cliff tax hikes and spending cuts before Christmas.

"There's been a real explosion in anxiety over this thing. Because markets have become the way they are, you've got people just stepping back," said James Dailey, portfolio manager of TEAM Asset Strategy Fund in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

"There's a tremendous absence of liquidity in the market," he said.

The S&P 500 had lost 5.3 percent in the seven sessions following Election Day as investors refocused on the threat posed to the economy by the fiscal cliff, a series of automatic spending cuts and tax increases. Markets have mostly recovered those losses, but volume has been thin, suggesting investors are not betting aggressively due to the uncertainty.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 78.56 points, or 0.60 percent, at 13,248.44. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 9.29 points, or 0.65 percent, at 1,427.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 35.34 points, or 1.18 percent, at 3,022.30.

Volume was roughly 6.43 billion shares traded on the NYSE, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of roughly 6.5 billion.

The lack of demonstrable progress in the fiscal cliff negotiations has kept investors from making aggressive bets in recent weeks.

The Fed began a two-day policy-setting meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is expected to announce a new round of Treasury bond purchases when the meeting ends on Wednesday to replace its "Operation Twist" stimulus, which expires at the end of the year.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged higher in choppy trading on Tuesday, snapping a string of five straight lower settlements, as news of OPEC production declines in November and a weaker U.S. currency provided lift for dollar-denominated oil prices.

CBOT Soyoil - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell as spillover pressure from a sell-off in wheat offset support from tightening U.S. soybean inventories, traders said.

·    USDA lowered its forecast of U.S. 2012/13 soybean ending stocks to 130 million bushels, in line with trade expectations and down from 140 million in November. The new figure would mark a nine-year low, if realized by the end of August 2013.


·     USDA trimmed its global soybean ending stocks forecast ton 59.93 million tonnes from 60.02 million in November. USDA left its soybean production estimates for Brazil unchanged at 81 million tonnes and Argentina unchanged at 55 million.


·     USDA confirmed export sales of 115,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13.


·     CBOT January soybeans dipped below its 200-day moving average at $14.68 per bushel, but pared losses and settled above that mark.


·     CBOT soyoil closed lower, despite a drop in USDA's forecast of 2012/13 soyoil ending stocks, on ideas that U.S. soyoil is overpriced on the global vegoils market relative to palm oil.


·   Growth in global biodiesel production is starting to weaken after being strong for years, with profitability hit by record-high soybean prices this summer - oilseeds analysts Oil World.


·     Soymeal gained against soyoil on expectations that commodity index funds will buy soymeal as part of annual rebalancing efforts early in 2013.


·     Losses in soybeans limited by firm cash markets, with basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast holding steady at historically high levels.



FCPO - SINGAPORE, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Tuesday, as traders priced in record stocks in the world's second-largest producer of the edible oil.

Malaysia's palm oil inventory level climbed for the fourth straight month to a record 2.56 million tonnes in November, weighing on futures that were headed for the worst annual performance since the 2008 financial crisis.

"We view the latest inventory data negatively as high stocks should keep crude palm oil prices at distressed levels of below 2,500 ringgit per tonne for an extended period well into 2013," Alan Lim Seong Chun, research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, said in a note to clients.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.9 percent to close at 2,292 ringgit ($750) per tonne. Prices traded in a range of 2,283 to 2,324 ringgit.

Total traded volumes stood at 38,386 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

On the weather front, an absence of El Nino disrupting production could lead to even higher palm oil supplies and pile more pressure on record high stocks, while the latest export data also failed to lift investor sentiment.

Malaysian exports fell 2.8 percent for the first 10 days of December from a month ago, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a 0.4 percent rise for the same period.

But traders are hoping for higher shipments in the next few weeks as planters rush to finish their annual tax-free export quota that expires the end of December and as Chinese buyers stock up before the implementation of a stricter quality requirement on edible oil from next year.

In a bullish sign for palm oil, Brent crude oil rose to around $108 a barrel on Tuesday as a slightly weaker dollar and Middle East unrest supported prices, but stalled fiscal talks in the United States capped gains.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for January delivery  fell 0.3 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.1 percent lower.

Regional equities - BANGKOK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The Philippine main index hit an all-time closing high on Tuesday led by market blue chips such as Ayala Land while Indonesia rose to a near two-week high as the central bank's upbeat economic view helped lift sentiment.

The Philippines ended up 1.3 percent at 5,831.50, pushing it up 33.4 percent in the year, Southeast Asia's best. The market rally was in line with the Philippine economy's prospects, backed by strong consumer and government spending.

Jakarta's Composite Index was up 0.4 percent at 4,317.92, led by a 0.7 percent gain in PT Astra International Tbk  a proxy of Indonesia's consumer sector.

Bank Indonesia held its benchmark rate steady at 5.75 percent on Tuesday, aiming to help keep Southeast Asia's largest economy growing at least 6 percent a year and showing it feels inflation remains at a comfortable level.

Thai SET index rose 0.5 percent, with energy firm PTT Exploration and Production Pcl  up 0.3 percent after its offering of 650 million shares was oversubscribed, raising $3 billion in the country's biggest equity sale ever.