HAMBURG, March 12 (Reuters) -
Soybean prices could be boosted well into April by transport problems in key
exporter Brazil but could then be weakened by possible record soybean plantings
in the United States, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on
Tuesday.
“Soybean prices may remain firm in
March and perhaps the first half of April,” Oil World said. “By that time
exports from South America should be in full swing and the USDA (U.S.
Department of Agriculture) planting intentions report may have confirmed the
outlook for a record soybean acreage this spring, paving the way for a price
setback.”
Global soybean consumers are
urgently awaiting Brazilian and Argentine soy harvests in early 2013 to relieve
the tight global soybean market, where the U.S. is carrying the main burden of
meeting world export demand despite a drought-hit 2012 crop.
Loading delays of up to 60 days are
reported at Brazilian ports as the country struggles to export huge new soybean
and corn crops. This has returned soybean demand to the United States despite
tight U.S. supplies which may compel U.S. soybean imports in coming months.
“Manifold logistical problems kept
Brazilian soybean exports below the world market’s requirements in February and
this will probably also occur in the first half of March,” Oil World said.
Soybean price weakness had been
expected early in 2013 as South American harvests enter the global market and
price firmness created by Brazilian transport bottlenecks could encourage more
U.S. soy sowings, Oil World said.
“The severe depletion of U.S. stocks
and the recent price development is signalling U.S. farmers to step up soybean
plantings,” Oil World said.
U.S. end-of-season soybean stocks
are forecast to fall to their lowest in nine years while the
stocks-to-consumption ratio was projected at the tightest since the mid-1960s,
according to USDA data.
The USDA will estimate spring
plantings of U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops on March 28 and Oil
World is expecting a hefty expansion of U.S. soybean sowings.
“Historically tight domestic (U.S.)
supplies and the need for an extreme demand-rationing in the remainder of 2012/13
are supporting the outlook for a further expansion of U.S. soybean plantings
this season, probably to an all-time high of 78-79 million acres,” it said.
This would compare to 76.1 acres
harvested in the United States in 2012.
Oil World stressed the estimate is
very tentative with weather and price developments in coming weeks key factors
to watch.
